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By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
It’s the Leafs vs Bruins once again in the NHL Playoff Bracket, with Game 1 set for Saturday, April 20th. Oddsmakers are favoring the Bruins to continue their dominance of the Leafs, pricing Jim Montgomery’s team as -125 favorites for Game 1 on Saturday.
Let’s get into our Game 1 Leafs vs Bruins prediction as we analyze the odds and determine the best player props to bet.
In the Saturday NHL playoff odds, the Bruins are slight -125 moneyline favorites over the Leafs, giving them an implied win probability of %.
Saturday’s NHL playoff game will be broadcast on CBC and TBS, with puck drop set for 8:00 PM EST.
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The Leafs come into Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs riding a four-game losing streak. Sheldon Keefe’s squad has been outscored by a combined total of 22-15 in these recent losses to New Jersey, Detroit, Florida and Tampa Bay.
The big story surrounding the Leafs lately has been Auston Matthews’ pursuit of 70 goals. The 26-year-old had an exceptional season with 69 points and 107 points but couldn’t find the back of the net in his final two games to reach the elusive 70-goal milestone.
Auston Matthews ended the season with 69 goals, and that's pretty nice 🔥
Watch them all here 🍿⬇️ pic.twitter.com/5ODvckcMrd
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) April 19, 2024
The Leafs finished the regular season with the third-highest scoring offense in the NHL, which is a primary reason they aren’t huge underdogs in the Leafs vs Bruins series odds. However, there is some concern about William Nylander (undisclosed), who didn’t practice Friday and is questionable for Game 1.
The Leafs are much shakier defensively, allowing 3.18 goals per game (18th). Their penalty kill has been a major weakness, operating at just 76.9% efficiency (23rd). Fortunately, Boston’s power play (22.2%) hasn’t been as dominant as in previous seasons.
The Leafs have yet to announce their starting goaltender for Game 1, but we do know it will be either Joseph Woll (.907 sv%) or Ilya Samsonov (.890 sv%). Samsonov started more games this season and has more playoff experience, but the Russian struggled down the stretch, allowing 11 goals in his last two starts.
The Bruins enter Round 1 of the NHL Playoffs sporting a losing streak of their own. Boston has dropped two straight games, including a 3-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators in their regular-season finale. The B’s outshot the Sens 35-20 but ran into a hot goaltender.
Fortunately for Boston, they secured home-ice advantage for Round 1. Boston sports a 24-11-6 home record this season and has won six of the past seven games against Toronto at TD Garden. They also took down Florida in Game 1 of last season’s postseason.
The Bruins have the fifth-best defense in the NHL this season, allowing only 2.70 goals per contest. They haven’t been as consistent offensively, averaging 3.21 goals per game (15th). David Pastrnak was the clear team MVP, notching 47 goals and 110 points.
Boston’s starting goalie for Game 1 hasn’t been announced but the Bruins’ goalie tandem of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark is the NHL’s best. We think it will be Swayman who gets the nod, as the 26-year-old is 3-0-0 with a 1.30 GAA and a .959 save percentage in three games against the Leafs this season.
Opening NHL Playoff Series Odds for All First-Round Series
In the props market, the two most favored players to light the lamp on Saturday are unsurprisingly Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak. Here are some of the NHL Player props available for Leafs vs Bruins Game 1:
One player prop we love for Game 1 is for David Pastrnak to record over 4.5 shots on goal (available at +120 on Bet365 ). Pastrnak averaged six shots on goal in four games against the Leafs this season, recording 45 total shot attempts (11.25 average).
Toronto allowed nearly 30 shots per game this season, which places them in the bottom tier of playoff teams. Pastrnak’s shot total dipped down the final stretch, but the Bruins were essentially playing meaningless games. When Pasta gets at least three days’ rest, he averages 6.5 shots on goal in the following game.
Game 1 Prop Pick:
It’s hard not to like Boston in Game 1 of this first-round series. They took all four regular-season meetings with the Leafs and have an excellent record at TD Garden. Furthermore, the B’s have defeated the Leafs in Game 1 of all three recent playoff series.
Nylander playing for Toronto would be significant, but the Leafs’ recent issues against Boston have been on the defensive side. Boston has scored at least four goals in three straight meetings, striking three times with the man advantage. Goaltending is so important in the playoffs, and we simply trust Boston’s goalie tandem much more than Toronto’s.
The Bruins suffered a shocking upset in Round 1 of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs and will be motivated not to let another strong regular season go to waste. The Leafs aren’t playing with much confidence right now, and we predict Boston will set the tone for the series with a convincing Game 1 victory.
Game 1 TOR vs BOS Pick:
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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