NHL
NHL Offseason
With the NHL’s salary cap ceiling climbing from $88 million to $95.5 million, there won’t be as many teams navigating stressful cap situations this offseason compared to years past. However, that doesn’t mean all clubs are clear of obstacles.
Earlier this season, the Colorado Avalanche pulled the trigger on a jaw-dropping, salary-cap-motivated trade that sent superstar winger Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes. It’s extremely unlikely we’ll see any cap casualties of that magnitude this summer, but there are still some franchises with difficult decisions to make this offseason.
Here are four teams with cap crunches worth monitoring.
Projected cap space: $5 million
Notable UFAs: Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, Mikael Granlund, Evgenii Dadonov, Cody Ceci, Colin Blackwell
Notable RFAs: Mavrik Bourque, Nils Lundkvist
GM Jim Nill’s acquisition of Rantanen was a slam dunk. Prime-aged star players rarely become available and without Rantanen’s heroics, the Stars probably would have bowed out in the first round to Colorado.
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However, to fit Rantanen’s $12 million contract — plus Jake Oettinger and Wyatt Johnston’s big-money contracts that kick in next season — the Stars will need to cut significant salary elsewhere. Dallas has just under $5 million in cap space, with only 16 players signed for the 2025-26 season (eight forwards, six defensemen and two goaltenders).
The Stars have several key pending unrestricted free agents, including second-line center Matt Duchene (who led the club with 82 points in the regular season), franchise icon Jamie Benn and productive rental Mikael Granlund.
Duchene ($7.1 million), Benn ($4.8 million), and Granlund ($4.98 million) are projected to cost $16.9 million against the cap on their next contracts, according to AFP Analytics. It’s possible the Stars can convince some of those three to sign bargain contracts cheaper than that — Benn’s only ever played for the Stars and has already made over $100 million in his career, and Duchene signed a cheap one-year extension last summer — but there’s no realistic way all three can come back unless Dallas moves out several other big-name players. Granlund is probably the most likely of these three players to leave in free agency.
There’s also up-and-coming center Mavrik Bourque, who could be a tempting offer-sheet target for teams as an RFA.
Nill also has to be mindful of the 2026 offseason, when Jason Robertson and Thomas Harley’s bridge deals expire. Robertson, who is currently on a $7.75 million AAV, will have considerable leverage as an arbitration-eligible RFA and will be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2027. Harley will be in line for an even bigger raise since he’s only on a $4 million cap hit right now.
Offloading the final year of Matt Dumba’s $3.75 million AAV is a must, even if it requires a sweetener. Mason Marchment is also likely to be a cap casualty on top of that; he’s a solid second-line winger with one year left at $4.5 million.
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The problem is that even if the Stars trade Dumba and Marchment’s contracts, they will only have $13.25 million in cap space with just 14 players signed. Even if you assume Benn re-signs at a massively discounted $1 million base salary (he’s eligible for a performance bonus-laden deal because he’s 35) and Duchene returns at a very team-friendly $5 million cap hit, Dallas would only have $7.25 million in cap space remaining with seven depth roster spots left to fill for a complete 23-player roster.
Perhaps there’s a long-shot scenario where the Stars would consider trade offers on Robertson if they fear the cost of his extension next summer, but that would likely be a huge mistake. Moving Tyler Seguin’s $9.85 million cap hit would solve a lot of problems, but he has a full no-movement clause.
Overall, Dallas has by far the most challenging cap puzzle of any NHL team to solve this summer.
Projected cap space: $11.9 million
Notable UFAs: Connor Brown, Trent Frederic, Corey Perry, John Klingberg, Jeff Skinner, Kasperi Kapanen
Notable RFAs: Evan Bouchard
Evan Bouchard’s next contract is going to single-handedly eat up nearly all of the Oilers’ cap space this summer. Bouchard has scored the third-most points of all NHL defensemen over the last two years, behind only Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. His defensive play can be up-and-down at times, but elite offensive numbers will always get a player paid a huge ransom.
Both Evolving-Hockey and AFP Analytics’ projections have Bouchard’s next deal clocking in around the $10.6-10.9 million range for eight years. Edmonton would only have $1-1.5 million left over after signing a Bouchard extension in that neighborhood. That isn’t a terrible spot for the Oilers to be in — they would have a nearly full roster with 11 forwards, seven defensemen and two goaltenders signed at that point — but they’d be at risk of losing some impactful depth players to free agency.
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Connor Brown, for example, could look to cash in on his bounce-back season and price himself out. Trent Frederic’s playoff impact hasn’t been anything special, but he won’t be cheap to re-sign considering his size, versatility and previous scoring profile. John Klingberg has been a revelation on the Oilers’ second pair with his puck-moving prowess. Edmonton would probably love to keep him, but we’ll see what this playoff run does to his market value.
Dumping the final year of Viktor Arvidsson’s $4 million AAV contract would open up valuable space, but he has a full no-movement clause.
The Oilers’ cap situation isn’t nearly as dire as the Stars’, but they are likely to lose a quality depth contributor or two this summer.
Projected cap space: $1.2 million
Notable UFAs: Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Lindgren
Notable RFAs: Sam Malinski
The Avs’ situation isn’t overly concerning at first glance — they have $1.2 million of cap space even after Brock Nelson’s extension and 19 players already signed (12 forwards, five defensemen, two goalies). It would have been a much tighter cap crunch if Rantanen’s contract were on the books instead of Martin Necas’ $6.5 million AAV.
Colorado will avoid a mass exodus of talent this summer, but GM Chris MacFarland will still likely lose at least one decent player, and will be somewhat limited in his ability to upgrade the roster.
Nelson’s three-year, $7.5 million AAV extension ate up the overwhelming majority of Colorado’s cap space, leaving virtually no room to retain Jonathan Drouin or Ryan Lindgren unless other players are shipped out.
Could Miles Wood, who has four years left at a $2.5 million cap hit, be moved to create a little bit more cap flexibility? Wood struggled with just eight points in 37 games this season, and his contract carries risk, but perhaps there would be a taker for him given his rare combination of size and speed.
Alternatively, could center Ross Colton become expendable? Moving Colton would open up $4 million that could be reallocated to either re-signing Lindgren or finding a comparable defenseman to round out the blue line.
Projected cap space: $19 million
Notable UFAs: Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand, Nate Schmidt, Tomas Nosek, Nico Sturm, Vitek Vanecek
Notable RFAs: Mackie Samoskevich
The Panthers will need significant player discounts and additional cap-clearing moves to afford bringing back all of Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad and Brad Marchand.
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Bennett will have a bidding war waiting for him on July 1 as the top center in a weak free-agent class. He has the nasty, hard-nosed playing style, clutch playoff resume and top-six scoring profile that teams salivate over. If Bennett is simply chasing the biggest contract he can get, he’ll likely price himself out of Florida. However, just for hypothetical sake, let’s assume he’s willing to take a discount to re-sign in Florida, and pencil him in for a $7 million AAV extension.
After that, the Panthers would have $12 million remaining. Ekblad spoke very passionately about his loyalty to the Panthers on Tuesday — he’s probably the most likely to take a deal below market value. The 29-year-old right-shot defender is currently on a $7.5 million cap hit and could probably command a similar figure in free agency this summer. But let’s say he re-signs with the Panthers at a $6 million AAV.
That would leave the Panthers with $6 million to spend, with 11 forwards, six defensemen and one goaltender under contract. That almost certainly wouldn’t be enough to re-sign Marchand, extend RFA Mackie Samoskevich, find a backup goalie, sign a fourth-line center and add another depth defenseman for Nate Schmidt’s role.
To afford Marchand (after Bennett and Ekblad’s hypothetical extensions), the Panthers would likely need to trade Evan Rodrigues’ $3 million cap hit and hope Marchand is willing to take a team-friendly AAV on top of that. Marchand was significantly underpaid on his last contract in Boston at $6.125 million annually, so he could be motivated to chase the bag.
It is technically possible for the Panthers to keep all three of Bennett, Ekblad, and Marchand if everything breaks right, but the most likely scenario is they’ll only be able to afford to keep two of the three.
All salary cap data courtesy PuckPedia.
(Top photo of Mikko Rantanen and Jason Robertson: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Harman Dayal is a staff writer for The Athletic NHL based in Vancouver. He combines NHL video and data analysis and tracks microstats as part of his coverage. Follow Harman on Twitter @harmandayal2
