NHL
The trade deadline is just over a week away. Is your team going to make a blockbuster move?
No, because this is the NHL, where all the GMs are whiny babies and making trades is too hard. There will be trades over the next few days, maybe even lots of them. But they’ll be by-the-numbers stuff, a pick here for a rental there, not anything big and bold. Given the extremely middling talent expected to be available, that’s all anyone can do. Your team will play it safe.
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But should they? That’s a different question. And for just about every team in the league, we could at least make the case that they should be aiming much higher than they inevitably will.
So that’s what we’ll do today. Every team gets the cursory nod toward why they won’t make a blockbuster, and then a longer section on why they should. Is that fair? No, because we’re putting a thumb on the scale here because trades are fun and we want all of the (many) NHL GMs who read my column to get to work. Here we go …
Obviously not, because: They’re a rebuilding team that doesn’t have any big-name UFA rentals, apart from maybe Brian Dumoulin, who’d get them a middling pick.
BUT: It’s time to shoot or get off the point with Trevor Zegras. This can has been kicked down the road for over a year now, and at some point, you have to concede that the ideal offer isn’t going to land on your doorstep. Deal him now and move on. Or don’t, and recommit to making him part of your long-term plan — while trading John Gibson instead and turning the full-time starter’s job over to the deserving Lukáš Dostál.
Obviously not, because: They’re just about completely capped out, the prospect pipeline is dry and they’re not even that good, so there’s no point moving mountains to make a deal that will just get them into the wild-card, if that.
BUT: Your captain is 36 and a pending UFA, and it’s been surprisingly quiet in terms of rumors of an extension. If this is it for Brad Marchand in Boston, then pick a lane: either make a big move to make sure he gets one last run, or bite the bullet and trade him to a playoff team for exactly the sort of windfall of future assets your system desperately needs. It sure seems like the Bruins have already decided which lane to take, so now comes the hard part. Marchand says he doesn’t want to go, which is nice, but it’s not (completely) up to him.
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Obviously not, because: Who even cares anymore, dude?
BUT: Elias Pettersson is there for the taking, maybe, and this is pretty much the only chance you’re ever going to get to acquire a young star who’s locked into a contract for seven more years. Honestly, this should have happened already. It’s not working in Buffalo, it hasn’t worked in over a decade and “patience” shouldn’t be in anyone’s vocabulary. Go get your star.
Obviously not, because: They’ve already made a big-ish move and they’re good enough to make the playoffs as is.
BUT: They’re going to get their doors kicked in once they get there. And sure, there’s some value in just getting to the dance, especially for younger players such as Dustin Wolf. But do you really want to burn through a season just to get swept by the Oilers and then hear about it from their fans for a decade? Either load up for a 2004-style miracle run or accept reality and move some of those big contracts you say you’re keeping.
Obviously not, because: One step ahead of you, buddy.
BUT: Mikko Rantanen hasn’t re-signed yet, and it doesn’t sound like it’s close. So that leaves you with two options: Either put him back on the market or decide to go all-in on winning it all with him in what might be your only opportunity. What you absolutely can’t do is treat the deadline as business as usual. This is a big-time “shoot or get off the point” choice, maybe the biggest in franchise history, and there’s no going halfway.
Obviously not, because: They’re terrible, and terrible teams sell, except they don’t have anything to sell that would qualify as a blockbuster beyond maybe Seth Jones, which feels unlikely. In other words: Make a few deals around the edges and then regroup in the summer.
BUT: First of all, let’s not shut the door on some kind of Jones deal, if only because pre-emptively ruling out creative moves is the sort of thing bad NHL teams do all the time. Beyond that, the frustration in Chicago is palpable right now, and eventually Kyle Davidson is going to have to either add some legitimate right-now talent or watch his replacement do it for him. Yes, you can point to the offseason, but why not jump in now, especially with all the teams that thought they’d be contenders now looking to dump veterans?
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Obviously not, because: They already made the biggest trade of the year, have no obvious needs and could even get a massive addition in the form of Gabriel Landeskog.
BUT: Yeah, this is a tough one. But if Landeskog isn’t coming back, which still seems to be the most likely scenario, then they do have about $5 million in LTIR space to work with. Use it. We know this team can win it all, but the path out of the Central will be brutal. Get that big name before the Jets or Stars beat you to it. You’ve certainly got the ammo to do it.
Obviously not, because: They’ve exceeded expectations all year long and could make the playoffs, but we all know they’re not winning the Cup, so stay patient and enjoy the ride.
BUT: First of all, who says they’re not winning the Cup? Oh right, all the same people who said they would never get near the playoffs. Interesting.
But sure, they wouldn’t exactly be anyone’s favorites. So what? This team has won one playoff round in franchise history, and this might be the most likable version of this team we’ve ever seen. There’s already a ton of youth in the pipeline, so why not at least consider spending a bit of that future to reward a long-suffering fan base with a memorable playoff chase?
Obviously not, because: They’re already good, they’re capped out and their big addition will be when Tyler Seguin comes back.
BUT: And when is Seguin coming back? If the answer is “right around the start of the playoffs,” then that means it’s time to go big-game hunting. That probably means the blue line, although a top forward could help them outscore that problem. I’ll just say it, Rantanen would look great in Dallas. (Hey, has he had a chance to spend any time with any Stars players lately?)
Obviously not, because: After years of spinning their wheels, the switch to Todd McLellan seems to have finally flipped the switch. Steve Yzerman has never been a big deadline guy, so he certainly shouldn’t make any panic moves now that things are actually clicking.
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BUT: You could play it safe, the way this franchise has done for the better part of a decade. But with a playoff spot in the East there for the taking, and no guarantee that the McLellan bounce will be a long-term effect, doesn’t Yzerman owe it to his exceedingly patient fan base to finally take the next step?
Obviously not, because: They fell just short last year and already did their adding in the offseason. Now they’re probably the Pacific favorites. Don’t fix what isn’t broken!
BUT: Except there is something broken. Namely, the goaltending, where Stuart Skinner just hasn’t been good enough. There aren’t many options for upgrading, but there are a few. Go get John Gibson and bring the Cup back to Canada.
Obviously not, because: They know they can win with the group they have now, and besides, they’ve never really been a big deadline player.
BUT: Not at the deadline, no, but this is a team that’s been built on big, aggressive trades. The biggest, landing Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, came in the offseason. But they also landed key pieces such as Sam Bennett in midseason deals, and sometimes that’s the best time to strike. Flags fly forever. That’s flags, plural.
Obviously not, because: Their season has already been better than most expected, and they got their deadline reinforcements early when Drew Doughty came back.
BUT: Sure, stay the course. By the way, the course you’re staying on is “losing in the first round every single year.” Normally you might figure now would be a good time to make a call on Brandt Clarke and, if a move is the answer, do it now while he still has plenty of value. But if Rob Blake decides to play it safe and keep all his assets, I’m sure the next GM will appreciate it.
Obviously not, because: This one obviously hinges on the Kirill Kaprizov injury situation, and Russo has it right: If they don’t know for sure that they have his LTIR space to work with, they just can’t do much.
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BUT: If it turns out Kaprizov will miss the rest of the regular season, you have to spend that space, right? Especially if he could return in the playoffs. The Wild spent the first half earning their status as contenders; if the cap space is there, even under rotten circumstances, then you have to keep swinging.
Obviously not, because: Can I interest you in a Jake Evans blockbuster? That’s about all we can reasonably expect.
BUT: Who said we were being reasonable? The Canadiens should be looking to spend future assets to land impact players with term, even if the AAV is a little high. If that sounds familiar, it’s because they already did it last summer with Patrik Laine, and that’s mostly worked out fine. Granted, the price wasn’t prohibitive, and maybe that’s not the case in March. But it’s the sort of deal the Habs should be looking at repeating, especially after a season that’s told them they’re not necessarily as close as they’d hoped to be.
Obviously not, because: The season is toast. Play it out, then regroup in the offseason.
BUT: Why not regroup now? Or at least, get the process started. It’s not like doing all the heavy lifting in the offseason worked out so great last summer, right? Granted, it’s not like the Predators have a ton of players anyone would want, aside from the untouchables. So … why not hear what’s out there for some of those guys, if only to set the table for something smaller?
Obviously not, because: They made their big move in the summer, landing Jacob Markstrom. Now it’s about tweaking.
BUT: I think this Greg guy might be on to something here. At the very least, the Devils are the sort of team that’s both good enough and young enough that they should be willing to move future pieces for help right now, especially if there’s (reasonable) term involved. It’s not like the Metro doesn’t look very winnable right now.
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Obviously not, because: They’re a borderline playoff team that isn’t really a Cup contender, which means they’ll tinker but mostly stay the course.
BUT: Would Lou Lamoriello kick off a rebuild? Probably not. Should he? Absolutely. Start with moving Brock Nelson, preferably to a team that wasn’t scouting the 4 Nations. But don’t feel like you have to stop there, because any offer to take a veteran salary should be seriously considered.
Obviously not, because: They tried. Nothing’s worked.
BUT: What a mess. Last year’s Presidents’ Trophy champs have already made two significant deals since the season started, and they still don’t look like a playoff team. At some point you stop throwing good money after bad and fold your hand.
But this is not that time. For Chris Drury, the only way out is through, and that means finding out if there’s any sort of impact help available. Unlike other contenders — and yes, we’re using that term extremely loosely — the Rangers should be happy to talk about sending out key pieces of the core in any deal because they don’t seem to have any of that precious chemistry other teams are so protective of. If you can move an older piece, do it. Hell, even Adam Fox shouldn’t be off the table. The point is we know how this ends if Drury plays it safe, and that ending won’t be remotely acceptable.
Obviously not, because: They’ve got no cap room, no truly glaring needs and are on track to finally break their playoff drought. Add some cheap depth if you can, sure, but there’s no need to aim bigger.
BUT: That “on track” is doing some work, given the Senators have spent the last month bouncing around 50 percent to 65 percent chances. Those are decent odds, but they’re far from a sure thing. You want to risk the wrath of an exhausted fan base, and maybe your captain’s patience, on decent? Fair enough, but hoo boy, you’d better be right.
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Obviously not, because: They’re a rebuilding team that’s already made a major move, and now they should probably just tank the rest of the year.
BUT: That trade with the Flames cleared cap space, and the Flyers are now set up to be a big bidder on the top-line center they’ve long needed. That guy may not be out there at the deadline, but he could be. And if he is, first-time GM Danny Briere can’t let some other team beat him to the punch after all but calling his shot.
Obviously not, because: They’re nowhere near good enough to buy, and nobody wants the overpaid veterans they’d be tempted to sell.
BUT: First of all, are we sure nobody would want Erik Karlsson at 50 percent retained, with just two years left and after a 4 Nations that saw him look revitalized? No chance at all? Fine, Sidney Crosby to the Avalanche it is then.
Obviously not, because: Who do they really have to trade?
BUT: That’s a fair point. Tyler Toffoli signed for the long term, and while there are pieces here that some teams might want, none of those moves will be blockbusters. So let’s just say this: The Sharks are absolutely stacked for the future, so if Mike Grier wanted to be a surprise player on any major names that shake free, he could be. We all love a mystery team when the rumor machine starts churning, and the Sharks are in a great spot to be that team if nothing much ever comes of it.
Obviously not, because: They’re not making the playoffs or winning the lottery, so ride it out and regroup in the offseason.
BUT: The focus around Seattle seems to be on pending UFAs such as Yanni Gourde and Brandon Tanev, which is fine. You could argue that the question is a bigger one: Is this team even close to being on the right track to winning anything? If the answer is “no,” which it might very well be, then adding a few more second-round picks isn’t going to be enough. Anything truly seismic probably does have to wait for the offseason, but that starts with getting real with potential trade partners.
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Obviously not, because: They’re doing that weird “retool but don’t rebuild” thing, which usually means making the predictable moves but nothing more.
BUT: And that’s the right approach … unless the hockey gods drop a gift in your lap. In this case, that gift would be Jordan Binnington playing his best period of the season with the entire world watching, pushing him to the forefront of any goaltending trade tiers. With at least a few contenders a goalie away from favorite status, now’s the time to strike quickly and move Binnington while his value is the highest it will ever be again.
Obviously not, because: They don’t have much cap room or a first in this year’s draft, and have had an up-and-down season as it is.
BUT: Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jake Guentzel are in their 30s, Brayden Point is getting close, and Victor Hedman is older than all of them. No team has been better at finding creative ways to add at the deadline than Julien BriseBois’ Lightning, and this is no time to get conservative. Two Cups is nice, but three or more would be better, so squeeze this stone for every drop that it has then worry about the long-term repercussions down the line.
Obviously not, because: The cap is tight and the roster is pretty much set, so they’ll try to add some depth on the blue line and maybe down the middle but otherwise roll with what they’ve got.
BUT: How well has that plan worked out over the years? The difference is that this year, with new ownership on the way, it’s almost certainly the last chance for upper management. If it goes bad and Brendan Shanahan is out, that means nobody is safe. In other words, if Brad Treliving wants to play it cautiously, that’s fine. But he’s going to be betting a lot of people’s jobs on it, so he’d better be right.
Obviously not, because: They’re barely .500, so it wouldn’t make sense to add anything beyond some cheap depth.
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BUT: Hey, remember when this team was going to spend a ton of money to be the big offseason story, and that turned out to be Mikhail Sergachev and not a whole lot else? That may have been the right call, but now they find themselves with a semi-realistic path to the playoffs in year one while the Flames and Canucks flatline in front of them. You’ve got a ton of cap room, extra picks from the Coyotes era and this one and only chance to make a first impression.
Obviously not, because: They already traded J.T. Miller, so what else do you want them to do, trade Elias Pettersson?
BUT: They should trade Elias Pettersson.
No, really, they should. Or at the very least, they should be having some extremely honest conversations about whether they want to be married to him and his $93 million contract until 2032. I’ve been a fan of his for a while now, but this season worries me, and the 4 Nations was downright terrifying. It’s possible he’s just not the same guy he was once, and if that’s true then the Canucks need to get out now, in what’s likely to be their last chance. The offseason? That could be too late to have any kind of market. Dangle him now, let him be the deadline’s biggest prize, hope some GM who thinks he’s getting fired in April offers something decent, and then make a run for the getaway car and book it out of town.
Obviously not, because: Maybe they could take a year off, just to see what happens.
BUT: Yeah, the Golden Knights may be the one team where we don’t have to do any arm-twisting, because we know how they operate: painful goodbyes in the summer, then big swings during the season. And for the most part, it works. So no convincing here — just keep doing you, Vegas.
Obviously not, because: They did their shopping in the offseason, and now they’re already running away with the East. And before you say that means they have to go big at the deadline, remember that their only Stanley Cup came in a year where they basically sat out.
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BUT: The Capitals are a very good team. They’re also one that’s had just about everything go right this year. Those seasons don’t come along very often, which is why you do whatever it takes to take advantage when they do. Caps fans know better than anyone that regular-season records don’t mean a thing in the playoffs. But the players have shown management that they’ve earned this swing at this thing, so let’s get Ovi a second Cup to go with his goals record.
Obviously not, because: They may already be the league’s best team.
BUT: That’s why you go all in. Here’s another: You have the best goalie in the world at the absolute top of his game, but he’s about to turn 32 and there’s no guarantee he can stay at this level forever. And one more: The future of the franchise might be at stake.
That’s right, the whims of alphabetizing means we get to end on a team whose deadline decisions could be literally existential. If the Jets aren’t in on any big name who shakes free, picks and prospects be damned, then I don’t even know anymore.
(Top photo of Mikko Rantanen: Jonathan Kozub / NHLI via Getty Images)
Sean McIndoe has been a senior NHL writer with The Athletic since 2018. He launched Down Goes Brown in 2008 and has been writing about hockey ever since, with stops including Grantland, Sportsnet and Vice Sports. His book, “The Down Goes Brown History of the NHL,” is available in book stores now. Follow Sean on Twitter @DownGoesBrown
