NHL
With less than two weeks until the start of the NHL playoffs, five teams in each conference had clinched a playoff spot as of Monday morning.
The matchups from our check-in last week largely remain the same this week, with a couple of changes, and some teams are threatening to make more. Here is how things would look if the first round started today.
Capitals (M1) vs. Canadiens (WC2)
Hurricanes (M2) vs. Devils (M3)
Maple Leafs (A1) vs. Senators (WC1)
Lightning (A2) vs. Panthers (A3)
Other contenders: Rangers (79 pts), Red Wings (79 pts), Islanders (78 pts), Blue Jackets (77 pts)
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Now that Alex Ovechkin’s great goal-scoring chase has been completed, the Caps can put all of their focus toward winning the Metropolitan Division, finishing first in the Eastern Conference and chasing the Presidents’ Trophy. Depending on how Ovechkin feels, it could either be his last run or perhaps a precursor to a retirement tour next year. Only Ovechkin knows at this point. By the way, the Caps are firmly in the driver’s seat for a Metro division title. They could’ve clinched it on Sunday had they beaten the Islanders. Washington has the largest point lead (11) of all division leaders entering Monday’s games.
All signs point to the Capitals holding down the top spot in the East to face Montreal, armed with Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and Calder Trophy favorite Lane Hutson. The Canadiens have won five in a row and could pull away from other wild-card hopefuls, such as the Rangers, Islanders and Blue Jackets.
Remaining schedules:
Capitals (five games): vs. Hurricanes (Thursday), at Blue Jackets (Saturday), vs. Blue Jackets (Sunday), at Islanders (April 15), at Pittsburgh Penguins (April 17)
Canadiens (five games): vs. Red Wings (Tuesday), at Senators (Friday), at Maple Leafs (Saturday), vs. Chicago Blackhawks (April 14), vs. Hurricanes (April 16)
This matchup looks like a lock. The Rangers and Islanders have only fleeting chances at making it as wild-card teams, let alone vaulting themselves into the division’s top three. Conversely, the Devils would need the Hurricanes to fall off drastically if they want to jump into second place. But the Devils have the second-easiest strength of schedule remaining, according to Tankathon. They also have a hot Jacob Markstrom in time for playoff action. The Swedish goaltender has won his past four starts. More importantly, the Devils still have to clinch a playoff spot. That could come as early as Tuesday if the Lightning beat the Rangers.
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With Washington firmly atop their division, the Canes should remain in second place. Carolina would be fortunate to start its series at home. The Canes are currently the league’s best home team, with a 30-8-1 record. Carolina also has a seven-point lead on the third-place Devils with a game in hand and the tiebreaker on regulation wins. There’s a reason why the Devils aren’t likely to pass them, and that they’d likely start on the road in a series against Carolina.
Remaining schedules:
Hurricanes (six games): at Buffalo Sabres (Tuesday), at Capitals (Thursday), vs. Rangers (Saturday), vs. Maple Leafs (Sunday), at Canadiens (April 16), at Senators (April 17)
Devils (five games): vs. Boston Bruins (Tuesday), vs. Penguins (Friday), vs. Islanders (Sunday), at Bruins (April 15), vs. Red Wings (April 16)
It looks like we could have a Battle of Ontario in the first round. Toronto has a four-point lead on Tampa Bay for the Atlantic Division lead, while Ottawa is running away with that first wild-card spot. But it all takes one push and this matchup isn’t as probable as it once was. What if Toronto stalls and Tampa Bay or Florida has a late-season surge? The Senators are also just two points behind the banged-up Panthers and have won three straight (but Florida currently holds the tiebreaker). If they beat the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday, they’ll clinch a playoff spot.
If we do get the Battle of Ontario, get ready for a lot of nostalgic look-backs to the early 2000s from Down Goes Brown. Daniel Alfredsson laying out Darcy Tucker before scoring. Steve Thomas’ electric overtime finish in the 2000 playoffs. Curtis Joseph going ballistic on a referee after trying to fend off a crowded crease and allowing a goal.
Remaining schedules:
Maple Leafs (six games): at Panthers (Tuesday), at Lightning (Wednesday), vs. Canadiens (Saturday), at Hurricanes (April 13), at Sabres (April 15), vs. Red Wings (April 17)
Senators (five games): at Blue Jackets (Tuesday), vs. Canadiens (Friday), vs. Philadelphia Flyers (April 13), vs. Blackhawks (April 15), vs. Hurricanes (April 17)
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The Lightning have a game in hand on their in-state rivals, but the Panthers are within two points. But as we alluded to earlier, Florida’s injury list is quite long for this time of year. At least seven key players missed Sunday’s game against the Red Wings, including Sam Reinhart and Aleksander Barkov. Considering Florida has already punched its ticket to the playoffs, the Panthers might use these next few games to heal up.
Of course, some people are going to say the Panthers are doing this so they can play the Leafs in the first round (TNT’s Paul Bissonnette did that the other night). I don’t think we need to go that far. More importantly, the Lightning-Panthers would be more than fine as an opening-round playoff series pitting two of the best franchises of the decade.
Remaining schedules:
Lightning (six games): at Rangers (Monday), vs. Maple Leafs (Wednesday), vs. Red Wings (Friday), vs. Sabres (April 13), vs. Panthers (April 15), at Rangers (April 17)
Panthers (five games): vs. Maple Leafs (Tuesday), vs. Red Wings (Thursday), vs. Sabres (Saturday), vs. Rangers (April 14), at Lightning (April 15)
Jets (C1) vs. Wild (WC2)
Stars (C2) vs. Avalanche (C3)
Golden Knights (A1) vs. Blues (WC1)
Kings (P2) vs. Oilers (P3)
Winnipeg and St. Louis play on Monday night. If it wasn’t for St. Louis’ 12-game win streak, we’d still be talking about it as a first-round matchup in this exercise. But the Blues have jumped the Wild for that first wild-card spot. The Wild have become the hunted in that spot, but their points lead — ahead of teams such as Calgary, Vancouver and Utah — might be insurmountable. Minnesota just earned two massive points against the Stars and has four games left in its season. Those games are all against teams below them in the standings, including the Flames. Tankathon says the Wild have the easiest strength of schedule of all 32 teams.
Meanwhile, Winnipeg has lost two of its past three games, and its hold atop the Central Division isn’t guaranteed with the Stars just three points behind. Both teams have five games left. It is not a guarantee that the Jets will remain atop the Western Conference. It may mean having to face off against the Avalanche in the first round, again.
Remaining schedules:
Jets (five games): vs. Blues (Monday), at Stars (Thursday), at Blackhawks (Saturday), vs. Oilers (April 13), vs. Anaheim Ducks (April 16)
Wild (four games): vs. San Jose Sharks (Wednesday), at Flames (Friday), at Canucks (Saturday), vs. Ducks (April 15)
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Do not count out the Stars for a Central Division title. They have won seven of their past 10 and are just three points behind the Jets for first in the Central with five games to go. Dallas and Winnipeg play on Thursday, and there could be serious divisional implications depending on how both teams handle their early-week games.
The Avs won’t catch Winnipeg or Dallas for the Central Division, but they could still end the season as a 100-point team for the fourth consecutive year and pose a big problem for whoever ends up in the Central Division’s second seed. If their opponent is the Stars, we anticipate a high-octane, star-driven series.
Remaining schedules:
Stars (five games): vs. Canucks (Tuesday), vs. Jets (Thursday), vs. Utah (Saturday), at Red Wings (April 14), at Nashville Predators (April 16)
Avalanche (four games): vs. Golden Knights (Tuesday), vs. Canucks (Thursday), at Kings (Saturday), at Ducks (April 13)
Vegas enters the week with a three-point lead atop the Pacific Division with six games to go. The Golden Knights needed that win over Vancouver on Sunday to give them some kind of points cushion with the Kings hot on their trail, and that’s after winning seven of their past 10 games. Three of Vegas’ five final games will be interdivisional, and there’s a matchup against Colorado in that final five. Vegas should be favored to win most, if not all, but it can’t afford to slip up too many times if the Kings keep winning.
The Blues have jumped into the first wild-card position thanks to their 12-game win streak, including two wins over the Avalanche. It’s not impossible for them to jump a spot, but the Blues are five points behind Colorado for third in the Central. A wild-card spot seems more likely, and upcoming road matchups against Winnipeg and Edmonton threaten to ground St. Louis. At least the Blues have pulled away from the Western Conference have-nots. Dom Luszczyszyn’s model gives the Blues a 98 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Remaining schedules:
Golden Knights (five games): at Avalanche (Tuesday), vs. Seattle Kraken (Thursday), vs. Predators (Saturday), at Flames (April 15), at Canucks (April 16)
Blues (four games): at Jets (Monday), at Oilers (Wednesday), at Kraken (Saturday), vs. Utah (April 15)
We pondered last week if this was the year the Kings would get the better of the Oilers, thanks to their record at home and their defensive play. But after winning eight of their past 10, the Kings still have a chance of winning the Pacific Division. The Kings would have to hope Vegas falters in its final five games while playing well in their final six games. But the Pacific Division crown is very much in play. In any case, the Kings have every reason to feel good about their playoff future.
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The Oilers, meanwhile, are still waiting on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to get fully healthy ahead of a lengthy playoff run. Draisaitl briefly returned, but he’s injured again with a lower-body injury. Not having No. 97 and No. 29 won’t help the Golden Knights in their efforts to jump the Kings with six games to go, as Edmonton is four points behind.
Remaining schedules:
Kings (six games): vs. Kraken (Monday), vs. Ducks (Thursday), vs. Avalanche (Saturday), at Oilers (April 14), at Kraken (April 15), vs. Flames (April 17)
Oilers (six games): at Ducks (Monday), vs. Blues (Wednesday), vs. Sharks (Friday), at Jets (April 13), vs. Kings (April 14), at Sharks (April 16)
(Photo of Winnipeg’s Vladislav Namestnikov and Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek: David Berding / Getty Images)
Julian McKenzie is a staff writer for The Athletic’s NHL vertical and is based in Ottawa. He also hosts The Chris Johnston Show with The Athletic’s Chris Johnston. Julian’s work can also be found in the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, CTV Montreal, The Canadian Press, TSN 690, the Montreal Gazette, The Sporting News and in other publications. Follow Julian on Twitter @jkamckenzie
