The 4 Nations Face-Off break is finally here, and reflecting on the Utah Hockey Club‘s first 56 games, their inaugural NHL season has been nothing short of a roller coaster ride, with many highs and just as many lows. Utah has scored five or more goals in an impressive 16.07% of their games this season. They rank amongst the bottom 10 teams in the NHL, only scoring 2.73 goals per game, and that is because they have scored one goal or fewer in 23.23% of games and have been shut out five times already this season.
Aside from dealing with significant injuries to key pieces of their roster for the entire season, several factors have contributed to Utah’s inconsistent offensive results. However, none are more prominent than their struggles with getting pucks into high-danger areas and their inability to create offence when not off the rush.
Utah is an exciting team to watch. We have seen them flash their talent at times throughout the season, starting with their first three games, where they scored five or more goals in each and started the season 3-0-0, and then most recently toward the end of January when they rattled off three-straight wins with four-plus goals in each.
Their young roster has done well in battling injuries all season, and you can see the potential of this team during these hot streaks. The problem is that most of their offence is created in a way that yields inconsistent results as it has throughout their entire inaugural season.
Utah is averaging the second-most shots off the rush per game in the NHL this season. This is a great thing. Chances off the rush are more likely to turn into high-danger chances than when the defence is set. However, the problem is generating quality chances off the rush such as breakaways or two-on-ones typically rely on opponents making significant, inherently random mistakes.
Related: Barrett Hayton Continues to Be Utah’s Streakiest Player
If you look at the NHL’s top four offences, you’ll find they all create shots off a forecheck or cycled puck above the league-average rate, and three of those four teams also create shots off the rush above the league-average rate. Compare that to Utah, which is below the league average in shots from forechecking or cycling. This could be part of the difference between highly-consistent offences and Utah’s, which is highly skilled but inconsistent.
The lack of offensive creation when established in the offensive zone has resulted in Utah averaging 9.96 high-danger chances per game, the fifth-lowest in the NHL. This may suggest Utah is struggling to generate the chances. However, the problem more comes down to their lack of ability to get the puck back in these situations to create chances off a forecheck or cycle.
As I mentioned, Utah is second in the NHL in shots off the rush per game. Naturally, that would lead you to believe this team likes to play off the rush. Although the results we discussed don’t show it, Utah dumps the puck to forecheck quite a bit. They rank among the top five teams in the NHL in forechecking pressures per 60 minutes.
This would be a considerable asset to Utah’s game if they didn’t have the sixth-lowest forecheck puck recovery rate per game, which makes them one of five teams in the NHL to rank above the league average in forecheck pressures but below the league average in recoveries. What is more interesting about this is that none of these five teams are in a playoff spot at the 4 Nations break.
Utah entered the season as the fourth-youngest roster in the NHL (Sizing up the NHL: Analyzing 2024-25 teams by age, height, weight and nationality, The Athletic, October 17th, 2024). They have made massive strides defensively, bringing their goals allowed per game down to 2.95 from 3.31 a season ago as the Arizona Coyotes.
They are also an exciting team that excels at creating scoring chances off of their opponent’s mistakes. The only missing piece is their ability to create chances when recovering pucks on the forecheck or after cycling against a set defence. If Utah continues to work on this, it will help make their offence consistent. You won’t see them score one goal or fewer in a quarter of the games they play, and you’ll see their offensive production increase purely by creating scoring chances in multiple ways.
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