NHL
NHL Playoffs
“Playoff Bob” used to hold a different meaning.
No matter how sparkling Sergei Bobrovsky was in the regular season, he wilted in the postseason. A Vezina-winning caliber season in 2016-17, when he earned a 0.931 save percentage and saved 45 goals above expected, ended in a five-game Round 1 elimination. Bobrovsky’s save percentage plummeted to 0.882 and he allowed 1.6 goals above expected.
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The following year, he went from 22.3 goals saved above expected in the regular season down to a minus-four in the playoffs.
Bobrovsky only made it past the first round once in his first seven playoff appearances, and his GSAx fell into the negatives each time.
It wasn’t until 2022-23 that “Playoff Bob” meant something positive, when he was the Panthers’ backbone on their run to the Stanley Cup final.
As one goalie shed that old identity, another has taken it on. Until Connor Hellebuyck changes the narrative, it’s what he will be remembered for. And it’s one of the louder takeaways from the Jets’ playoff run.
As every playoff series comes to a close, the primary focus tends to be on the team advancing. But what about the losing team, whose offseason is officially starting earlier than hoped? Before the spotlight shines on the final four teams starring in the conference finals, let’s look at what we learned about the four teams eliminated in Round 2.
Hellebuyck is the new “Playoff Bob”
Goaltenders were part of the Player Tiers for the first time this year. Hellebuyck seemed like a natural choice for that number one slot, just months after winning the Vezina Trophy. Except player placement is based on their entire body of work, not just the regular season — and that’s always been Hellebuyck’s Achilles heel.
After earning a 0.921 save percentage last year and saving almost 40 goals above expected in 60 games, Hellebuyck was crushed in Round 1 last year. As much as his defense left him exposed to the Avalanche, he didn’t respond well to his workload, either. He allowed 6.5 goals above expected in five games and put up his worst postseason numbers yet.
This year, he put up even better regular-season numbers — a 0.925 save percentage and a 49.5 GSAx, the third-best mark of the analytics era.
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And then he turned into a pumpkin against St. Louis in Round 1.
The Blues did a good job targeting Hellebuyck’s weaknesses; they created traffic in front to take away his eyes, beat him with a number of tips and redirects and aimed high-glove.
THREE UNANSWERED GOALS FOR THE BLUES 🤯
Cam Fowler rips it past Connor Hellebuyck as St. Louis is BUZZING 📢 pic.twitter.com/fwGTfZSRis
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 3, 2025
Hellebuyck only earned one quality start in Round 1 and allowed a collective 9.8 goals above expected. He was pulled in three straight games, but luckily for the Jets, he found his composure in Game 7 after allowing two first-period goals against.
Hellebuyck was a lot better against the Stars; he saved 4.8 goals above expected, fueled by strong performances in Games 2, 5, and 6, which brought his total playoff GSAx up to minus-5.0. He helped force a Game 6 and gave his team a chance in that elimination game.
The problem is that Round 2 performance likely won’t be the lasting memory or the narrative that carries into next season. It won’t matter that the Jets lost to the Western Conference favorite, or that the team had to manage without their top defenseman for parts of Game 6. It will be that Hellebuyck, once again, fell apart in Round 1 and went 0-6 on the road. And nothing he does next regular season will change that — only he can with a playoff turnaround, like Bobrovsky.
It’s hard to stay fresh in the playoffs
Staying fresh can mean two things.
The first way revolves around health. Every single team is dealing with something this time of year; it’s all about how a team responds to those injuries. The Capitals were dealt a blow before the playoffs even started when Martin Fehervary tore his meniscus. It forced the coaches to try different pairings and deployments to compensate for his absence, and at times, that forced players into positions above their depth.
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A key reason Jakob Chychrun rebounded in Washington this year was that coaches recognized how best to maximize his offensive strength in sheltered minutes. But without Fehervary, Chychrun had to take on minutes against top competition in the playoffs, which exposed his defensive weaknesses. That dragged down John Carlson, who really showed his age in Round 2 after such a solid regular season. Matt Roy and Rasmus Sandin couldn’t stabilize the top four either. The Capitals’ defense just looked out of sorts without Fehervary in the mix.
Carlson and Alex Ovechkin both represent the other element of staying fresh. Getting through an 82-game season is a tall ask. Then a team also has to have the energy and wherewithal to play through four rounds against steep competition.
And that was a problem against the Hurricanes.
The Canes make life difficult for opponents; they’re relentless off the forecheck and don’t give up much space in their own zone. They dominate play at five-on-five and often win the special teams battle with a disruptive penalty kill. That wore the Capitals down by their Game 5 elimination, especially their aging core.
There are a handful of younger players becoming difference-makers in Washington, from Connor McMichael, Aliaksei Protas and even Ryan Leonard up front, to Sandin and Fehervary on the back end. But management may still want to add more fresh legs to help this team sustain its energy for a deeper run next spring. It’s not just about game-planning for the Canes, but having the juice against any opponent.
Depth matters
There’s one downside to someone of Jack Eichel’s caliber playing matchup minutes: sometimes it can neutralize his offense.
That role didn’t slow him down in the regular season, where he put up 94 points in 77 games. But in Round 2, the competition was as steep as it gets: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. It’s tough to contain those two and force them to play defense.
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While Eichel wasn’t without his looks in Round 2 — he was a standout in Game 2, with three assists, four scoring chances and seven chance assists according to AllThreeZones tracking — he fell below break-even in expected goals in three of five games at five-on-five. That’s when the depth had to step up to provide more goal support.
While William Karlsson, Reilly Smith and Victor Olofsson chipped in secondary scoring, it wasn’t enough to make up for what the big guns couldn’t generate in their minutes.
Pavel Dorofeyev had zero points in three games against Edmonton after leading the team in regular-season goal scoring. Tomas Hertl and Ivan Barbashev, who played all five games, also had zeros across the board.
This was a potential weakness heading into the season. Years of big-name hunting — from Stone and Eichel to Hertl, Alex Pietrangelo and Noah Hanifin — have weighed on the Golden Knights’ cap flexibility and prospect pipeline. This team doesn’t have a ton of entry-level talent to lean on for cheap, high-ceiling depth options. Instead, management has to shop in the bargain bin for players like Brandon Saad and Tanner Pearson.
Star power matters in this league, especially in the playoffs. But having depth behind those superstars still matters too, to a lesser degree — and it’s a major reason why the Oilers advanced in this series. Winger depth looked like a potential weakness for Vegas heading into this season and it exposed them against Edmonton’s high-octane offense.
The little things don’t matter when there aren’t big moments
The regular season shapes a player’s identity, but the playoffs are where legacies are built. It’s what separates the good from the great, the players from the dawgs. And it’s what holds the Leafs’ Core Four back.
Maybe the Maple Leafs’ core has hit its ceiling, which is just Not Good Enough when it matters the most. Maybe that will spark change.
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Nylander has proven to be a big-game player over the years. After doing the little things right this spring, Matthews had his big moment to extend the series in Game 6. Instead, the change will likely center a player who is weeks away from unrestricted free agency: Mitch Marner.
As much as Marner has beaten some playoff demons — he delivered in the 4 Nations final for Team Canada, scored eight points in six games against the Senators, and had a solid start to Round 2 in tough minutes against the Panthers’ best — the sticking point will be what happened in the Leafs’ losses.
The little details that contributed to wins will be overshadowed by disappointing moments, like a rough Game 5 against the Panthers.
THAT’S THREE UNANSWERED ‼️
Jesper Boqvist finishes off a Sam Reinhart feed to give the Panthers a 3-0 lead in Game 5 pic.twitter.com/3zab7M2Cg7
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 15, 2025
Or another brutal Game 7, where Marner was held off the board, outshot 28 attempts to 16 in his five-on-five minutes and fell below break-even in expected goals with the spotlight on him. Those are the moments that have stacked up over the years, in six Game 7s, where he has only mustered two points.
That’s going to dominate the conversation, instead of the fact that the Panthers were the better, deeper and more dominant team. While Florida’s third line popped off in Toronto, the Maple Leafs had little secondary support to take the pressure off the top guys. At the end of the day, it will come back to the fact that a supposed top guy should have handled the pressure and performed in those moments — especially when they’re seeking a massive new contract.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo of Connor Hellebuyck: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)
Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
