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The Lightning are on a roll even despite some major injury outs, with players stepping up and proving their skill. Mike Carlson / Getty Images
If a team is going to retool successfully, it has to take a proactive approach. When the situation is dire, like it is for the New York Rangers — who sit in last place in the East as the only team in the Conference below .500, with a minus-27 goal differential, and without a strong prospect pipeline or developmental system to rely on — that proactive approach is going to take a lot of work.
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Trading Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck and Carson Soucy alone may not bring back enough needle-movers to truly turn things around. And that’s what makes Braden Schneider a potential trade option.
Schneider’s young enough to help a retooling team like the Rangers, but also has qualities that most general managers look for: size, right-handedness, physical edge and ability to absorb big minutes. And with prices spiking on the defensive market last summer, Schneider’s next contract should come on the lower end of the spectrum, which makes him an attractive option.
Add in a trade board that includes righties like Luke Schenn, Connor Murphy and Andrew Peeke, and there could be even more juice here.
The problem is, as much as Schneider has the tools to be a solid defenseman at this level, he hasn’t found consistency in New York. He has fallen below break-even in xG in all five of his NHL seasons and has struggled to take on more challenging minutes over the last year. And in January, he earned one of the worst average Game Scores in the league at a minus-1.06.
His surroundings have something to do with that, with three NHL coaches across his five seasons and some really damaging defensive instruction along the way. While there is still a path to becoming the next Jake McCabe, other comps paint a more concerning picture: Michael Stone, Luca Sbisa, Luke Schenn and Cam Barker, among others. So any interested team has to project whether he is a product of his surroundings, or if he can become the best version of himself outside of New York.
It’s a gamble, but it’s one teams have been willing to take in seasons past — trades involving younger defenders like Jordan Spence, Jamie Drysdale and Rasmus Sandin prove that. So if the market is there (and the return is enticing), the Rangers may want to take this type of risk before diminishing Schneider’s trade stock any further.
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Despite key absences in January, including Ryan McDonagh and Victor Hedman, the Lightning have been one of the best teams in the East — especially back in their own zone. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been fantastic with a 0.940 save percentage in 10 starts, with 14 goals saved above expected in all situations. And the defense has been incredibly stingy at five-on-five, with Tampa Bay giving up a league-low rate of 2.18 expected goals against per 60 in 13 games. The penalty kill has been stout, too.
J.J. Moser and Darren Raddysh have stepped up as difference-makers, while Syracuse call-ups like Charle-Edouard D’Astous and Dominic James have made an impact and embraced a next-man-up mentality. With McDonagh and Hedman officially back, it’ll be interesting to see what that next level could look like — especially if shutdown center Anthony Cirelli is sidelined after leaving Sunday’s game early.
It’s a reminder of one of the Lightning’s greatest strengths as an organization: the ability to maximize players within the system. The Crunch have become a reliable source of NHL-caliber talent, despite a lack of first-rounders in recent years. The Lightning have only drafted once in the first round in the last six seasons, and that player (Isaac Howard) ultimately signed elsewhere. Not only is the developmental system clearly a strength, so is Jon Cooper’s direction at the NHL level. This has to be the year he finally gets some Jack Adams hype as coach of the year.
The Devils have said Jack Hughes’ injury isn’t too serious and that he is only day-to-day. But what happens if he can’t suit up for Team USA at the Olympics? The question really isn’t far-fetched for two reasons: 1) the Devils need him to stay healthy if the team has any chance of making the playoffs, and 2) the number of injury replacements already needed across the board.
Because USA Hockey is deep at center, between Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Dylan Larkin, Brock Nelson, Trocheck, Tage Thompson, and J.T. Miller, the team could add a winger. And that’s where things get interesting, considering the high-octane snubs available.
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That list obviously starts with Jason Robertson, who is one of the best American wingers in the game. Two short kings are also making their respective cases; Alex DeBrincat has nine goals and 16 points since being left off Team USA, and Cole Caufield is second in goal scoring since being snubbed with 12 goals and 17 points — and that includes a clutch performance against Team USA GM Bill Guerin and the Wild.
There are only three right-handed forwards on USA in Eichel, Thompson and Trocheck. And now, with Seth Jones replaced by Jackson LaCombe, the team drops from six righties overall to five. Handedness isn’t everything, but it does still matter, so it only betters Caufield and DeBrincat’s cases as a way to boost USA’s offensive versatility.
Speaking of Team USA’s depth at center, Nelson is a key part of it. It may seem like a surprise after his underwhelming 4 Nations performance last winter; with zero points and a minus-0.39 Net Rating, he was in the bottom 20 players of the tournament. This season’s a completely different story, though.
Nelson’s strengths have gone under the radar over the years, but he has been an elite 2C for some time between his clutch scoring, playmaking, puck retrievals that lead to exits and overall reliability in his own zone. It took him some time to get fully up to speed post-deadline last year, and this year, he is absolutely excelling in Colorado.
Nelson has taken a quality over quantity approach with his shooting this year, which has converted to 1.65 goals per 60 in all situations, the second-highest rate of his career. And since being named to Team USA, he has scored a league-high 12 goals in 14 games (bringing him up to 28 on the season). While a high shooting percentage is one potential red flag, the fact that he does most of his damage at five-on-five is encouraging. It’s even more impressive considering his usage; the Avs generally start him in the defensive zone against top offensive competition (sharing the burden with the Nathan MacKinnon line). Despite that, Colorado is in control in his minutes with a 59 percent expected goals rate.
So not only is his play worthy of a utility role as an all-around, all-situations threat, it could get him some attention in the Selke conversation. And it should help the Avs go on a deeper run this spring; last postseason, the next-best scorer behind MacKinnon’s 11 points was Logan O’Connor with six. Nelson should help fill that gap and provide real secondary support.
After only putting up 44 points in 73 games last season, Zach Hyman has found his scoring touch this season. His pace is up by 0.98 points per 60, which is one of the best year-to-year improvements around the league.
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The reality is he was never going to repeat his 54-goal outburst from 2023-24 as a player whose actual scoring tends to trail his xG. But the repeatable element of that season, and the year prior, was how much he boosted his scoring chance creation. Playing with Connor McDavid can have that effect; Hyman was already a relentless forechecker who had a nose for the net, but pairing him with one of the best puck movers and overall offensive creators in the league took that to the next level.
Hyman’s xG was 50 goals in 2022-23 and 57 the following year. Last season, that dipped down to about 42. This season, to compare, he is already at 31 expected goals in 37 games, which shakes out to around 53 across a 63-game season. That bodes well for him to keep building on his 22-goal season, and get back to that new level he found over the last few years. That’s great news for the Oilers, whose secondary scoring was seriously strained by Hyman’s slower pace last season.
The first few months of the season looked like more of the same John Gibson the league has come to expect over the years: inconsistent results, hampered by injury woes.
But in December, he started to turn things around, saving 8.16 goals above expected in 10 outings. Then, when the calendar turned to 2026, he upped his GSAx to 11.6 and 0.920 save percentage in 12 appearances.
All together, it adds up to 14.3 goals saved above expected, which ranks 23rd in the league. As things stand, it should be Gibson’s second straight year finishing above average relative to his workload. The difference is that he is putting up these numbers in a starting capacity, when he seriously struggled with that workload in five seasons prior.
Now the test is sustaining this level (and workload) in the second half.
Gibson handled the chaos in Anaheim relatively well in the early-goings of the season until he inevitably hit a wall and crumbled. His surroundings are different now; his workload is down to 43 unblocked shots against per 60 and 3.14 xG, the lowest marks since 2021-22. Detroit’s defense is far from perfect, especially when Moritz Seider is on the bench, but the team doesn’t bleed high-danger passes like the Ducks of seasons past did. So this is a chance to prove that the resurgence is real and help the Red Wings finally return to the playoffs.
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With injuries at center, the Vegas Golden Knights made an adjustment on Dec. 19: Moving Mitch Marner from wing to center. While he doesn’t have experience at the position at the NHL level, his overall playing style and defensive acumen both made the flip possible. Plus, it gives the second line a stronger puck-moving presence up the middle, opposite Eichel on the top line.
Since primarily shifting positions, Marner scored four goals and 11 points at five-on-five. Below the surface, the results are somewhat mixed; Vegas is generating chances (and goals) with the winger playing center, but the team defense has been a little leakier.
It seems to be less about the positional flip and more about finding the right wingers for Marner in this new role. Flanked by Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev, the second line’s offense was hot, but the trio allowed 4.29 xG against per 60 in 51.5 minutes of play. Vegas has allowed less with Marner skating between Pavel Dorofeyev and Reilly Smith, but that line’s offense has been muted. So now Vegas is experimenting with the best of those two combos: Stone and Dorofeyev around Marner to try and balance out this line’s two-way game.
If Vegas can find a way to maximize Marner at center, it should help this team navigate William Karlsson’s absence. If not, a top-heavy approach has to help carry this team to the deadline.
Nikita Kucherov has come into the new year hot, with nine goals and 31 points in January. In those 13 games, the Lightning outright dominated play in his minutes with a 68 percent xG rate and outscored opponents 17-6 at five-on-five. And with four points against the Boston Bruins on Sunday night, he is already starting February strong.
David Pastrnak’s shot rightfully gets a lot of hype, but his playmaking is such a dangerous part of his attack. And in January, it added up to 17 primary assists and three secondaries, on his way to 25 points in 14 games. He does a lot with a little and helped the Bruins go up 19-6 in scoring in his five-on-five minutes.
Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield both have earned nods in the third-star conversation. So has the Utah Mammoth’s John Marino, after going up 18-2 in his five-on-five minutes. Mattias Samuelsson’s glow-up in Buffalo has been clutch, too. But it’s Ilya Sorokin’s Vezina-caliber (and Hart Trophy-worthy) play that steals the show, with 17 goals saved above expected in nine games and a 0.931 save percentage for the New York Islanders.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
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Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
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