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Last updated: April 9, 2025 5:12 PM EDT • 6 min read
After a thrilling, upset-filled opening round, unseeded Denver (29-11-1) will take on No. 4 Western Michigan (30-7-1), the lone top seed from the first weekend remaining as we make our Western Michigan vs. Denver prediction.
Whichever team wins this contest is expected to take the NCAA championship, with Denver (+200) slightly edging Western Michigan (+220) at FanDuel. The action gets underway at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2) from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis tomorrow.
📅 Date: Thursday, April 10
🕗 Time: 5 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis
📺 TV: ESPN2
💻 Streaming: ESPN+
🏆 Western Michigan vs. Denver college hockey odds via FanDuel. Shop around for the best Frozen Four odds from our best sports betting apps.
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🏒 Goals per game: 4
🥅 Opponent goals per game: 2.12
💪 Power play: 29.1%
⚠️ Penalty kill: 82.1%
Denver is red-hot entering the Frozen Four after scoring eight goals in the opening two rounds to punch its ticket, giving the Pioneers a two-game winning streak after losing their final NCHC Frozen Faceoff game.
The Pioneers lead the NCAA in goals scored per game, and it’s been a team effort. Sam Harris (0.55, 16th), Carter King (0.49, 24th), and Aidan Thompson (0.47, 34th) make Denver the only team left in the tournament with three top-35 per-game scorers.
At the other end, goalie Matt Davis ranks a solid 15th in goals allowed per game (2.07) and 16th in save rate (92.3%). The concern for Denver shouldn’t be during 5-on-5 play, but instead 4-on-5. Denver’s penalty kill sits just 17th. That wasn’t a problem in the opening round, but it could be against an efficient power-play unit. Still, Denver’s top-ranked offense might be able to compensate. 
🏒 Goals per game: 3.95
🥅 Opponent goals per game: 2.05
💪 Power play: 25.9%
⚠️ Penalty kill: 87.1%
The next-best team by goals per game is No. 4 Western Michigan. Unlike Denver, the Broncos endured a bumpier path. WMU needed two overtimes to beat Minnesota State in the first round, then the Broncos beat Massachusetts by a single goal. Their net scoring margin in the tournament (+2) is one-third of Denver’s production. But the team is now on an eight-game winning streak, including a victory over Denver in the NCHC Frozen Faceoff. 
Western Michigan’s power-play unit is slightly worse than Denver’s group, but the Broncos’ penalty kill is much better and ranks fourth nationally. The unit held Denver to zero goals over two power plays in the last meeting between the two teams. Goalie Hampton Slukynsky matches or exceeds Denver’s Davis, too. He ranks seventh in goals against per game (1.92 ) and 16th in save rate (92.3%).
🎯 Score prediction: Denver 4, Western Michigan 3
✅ Best bet: Denver ML (-136 via FanDuel)
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Although the reigning national champions didn’t earn a top-four seed this season, they’re now the betting favorite to win the NCAA tournament again this year, checking in at odds of +200 (33.3% implied probability) to do so at FanDuel. Logically, they’re also favored to win Thursday’s game against Western Michigan at odds of -136 (57.1%). 
Both offenses have been putting the puck in the net at an incredibly high rate. Denver scored three times before the end of the second period versus Western Michigan on only 15 shots during the last clash between these two teams. In contrast, Western Michigan failed to convert over its first 20 shots before scoring three times in the third period to force overtime.
I suspect Denver took its foot off the gas against Western Michigan last time, which is a mistake the Pioneers won’t make again with a national championship on the line. The massive shot disparity (46 for WMU, 26 for Denver) is a concern, but the split was a far less concerning 21-18 when the second period ended with Denver leading by three.
I favor Denver to win the rematch, as do the markets, but by a wider margin than what you’re able to buy. Denver has proven its mettle at this level of competition, both by winning it all last year and winning dominantly this year.
Meanwhile, it’s Western Michigan head coach Pat Ferschweiler’s first trip to the Frozen Four, but Denver head coach David Carle has advanced that far four times. The latter sports a 5-2 record in the final three games of the season.
👉 Want to bet on the Frozen Four? Check out our guide on how to bet on hockey.
✅ Puck line pick: Denver -1.5 (+186 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Denver (-136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 6.5 Goals (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
🛜 Game already started? You can still get in on the action with our best live betting sites.
For entertainment purposes, we asked ChatGPT to analyze historical trends and live college hockey stats before predicting the winner and exact score for Western Michigan vs. Denver. Our AI prediction projects a final score of Denver 4, Western Michigan 2.
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT’s AI prediction would mean Denver covering the puck line (-1.5) and a total of Under 6.5 goals. ChatGPT is a large language model and not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, so these projections should be viewed as entertainment or a supplementary data point for your Frozen Four betting research.
*The 2020 tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
📜 For more past winners, see the full NCAA men’s hockey championship history.
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