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The Vegas Golden Knights stolen Edmonton’s hockey mojo. They’ve stolen Edmonton’s best weapon — their even strength dominance — and turned it against the Oilers.
In Game 1 of the series, it looked like men against boys, with the Edmonton Oilers dominating VGK, 14 Grade A shots for Edmonton, a measly five for Vegas.
At even strength that game, the Oilers rolled like a tsunami of hockey skill, smarts and intensity, with 11 Grade A shots to just one for Vegas. The game was something of a slaughter in terms of process, with the Oilers sporting a 92 Grade A shots percentage.
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But Vegas has since come charging back, stealing away Edmonton’s hockey mojo. In the last two games, the Grade A shots — as sure a way to measure the relative strengths of teams in a game as you’ll find in hockey — have been 21-to-19, then 16-to-10, both in VGK’s favour.
Edmonton was lucky to win Game 2, largely on the strength of some huge and timely saves from now-injured and out goalie Calvin Pickard, then Evan Bouchard-to-Corey Perry-to Connor McDavid-to Leon Draisaitl’s overtime magic.
In the last two games, the OIlers have had just a 42.6 Grade A shots percentage at even strength.
Vegas is now dominating that aspect of the game.
I’ve got three suggestions: line-up changes, line-and-pairing stabilization, and a major attitudinal shift.
Line-up changes: Most Edmonton players have been either crushing it at even strength in the 2025 playoffs or doing well. But a few players are struggling to get the job done, namely Mattias Janmark as a fourth line centre, third-line winger Trent Frederic, and third-pairing d-man Ty Emberson.
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I can’t see anyone on the roster who is an obvious replacement for Janmark, who has had some good aspects to his play, namely decent forechecking and OK penalty-killing. Janmark has struggled on defence, but that’s not unexpected for a player still getting used to being back at centre. The Oilers could go with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Adam Henrique all at centre, putting Janmark back on the wing.
But the more obvious move at forward is to take out Frederic, who is struggling mightily on defence, and replacing him with Jeff Skinner, a fast and skilled forward who might be able to help break down the Vegas defence with his passing and shooting. Frederic has been no hell on defence and it’s unlikely Skinner will be any less effective in that category.
Emberson has struggled at even strength with the speed and aggression of playoff hockey. Troy Stecher is a much better bet for Game 4. That move seems like the most obvious line-up change for the Oilers.
Line and pairing stabilization. With Emberson not trusted at even strength, the Oilers have often been mixing and matching with their defence pairings. If Stecher goes in, he’s a solid fit with Darnell Nurse, who has been inconsistent in the playoffs, and on for a lot of goals against.
The Oilers could keep the Jake Walman and John Klingberg pairing, then go with Brett Kulak and Evan Bouchard.
Having three steady d-men duos will help the Oilers play a more coherent and sound defensive game, no?
As for the lines, Skinner can simply slot in for Frederic on the third line with Henrique and Connor Brown, keeping the other lines intact.
I’m not talking a radical shift here. Just some small moves that will give the Oilers more attacking edge and defensive stability.
Attitudinal shift. Edmonton was the author of its own misfortune in Game 3, making numerous mental errors, many of them coming from players not playing it safe. For example, on the first Vegas goal, instead of getting the puck in deep Leon Draisaitl tried to stickhandle through VGK, while Evan Bouchard shot up into the play, charging up with Drai to the offensive blueline, but creating a 2-on-1 against the Oilers when Drai lost the puck.
There was not much need for Drai to press so hard to make a fancy play, nor for Bouchard to move up aggressively on the attack, as the Oilers were up by two goals and in the final minutes of the period. Edmonton simply needed to close out the frame without giving VGK a sniff.
I focus on this play because I think it was the real turning point of the game. It signalled exactly what’s wrong with the Oilers just now.
Can the Oilers engage in better game management? Can they get the risk-reward right? Can they put defence first, second and third on their to-do list.
If the Oilers decide to play smart and sound defence, no team can beat them. They’ll start to get the edge back at even strength. They’ll beat Vegas.
Or will the Oilers beat themselves? Their choice.
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