Team USA's offense has been perhaps the most reliable unit in the entire tournament, and that's what we expect to be the difference as they go for gold tonight.
The United States will seek its first set of back-to-back gold medals at the World Junior Hockey Championship when it plays Finland in the tournament final on Sunday.
Finland, who hasn’t struck gold since 2019, is a +220 moneyline underdog — despite being the only team in the tournament that has beaten the Americans so far.
Our USA vs. Finland predictions have the Americans completing the repeat, but with little juice on an outright win, we’ll look elsewhere for betting value.
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of 1-5.
My best bet: Over 5.5 (-134 at bet365)
Finland found its way to the tournament final with a stunning 4-3 overtime upset win over Sweden in the first of two semifinals on Saturday night. Benjamin Rautiainen’s sharp angle shot found its way past Melker Thelin to vault Finland to its first tournament final since 2022.
Since being shut out in their opening game against Canada, Finland has won five straight games, scoring 3+ goals in each. They’re powered by arguably the best goalie in the tournament, Petteri Rimpinen, who has a tournament-best .935 save percentage. They’ve also allowed just two power-play goals in six games.
The United States didn’t need much drama, dispatching Czechia 4-1 in the semifinal. The Czechians’ magic ran out after dispatching Canada for the second straight year in the quarters.
The Americans are an offensive juggernaut, leading the tournament in scoring with 33 goals, tallying at least four goals in five of the six games they’ve played. They’ve also been good on the other end of the ice, as their 13 goals allowed is second in the tournament. They have the best power play going at a sharp 36% efficiency rate.
Team USA has also seen goalie Trey Augustine raise his game as the games got more meaningful. After taking a 4-3 OT loss to Finland in the round-robin, he’s allowed just four goals over the next three, including a 26-save performance vs. Czechia en route to the final.
Finland has been solid in Ottawa, but the Americans have looked like the best team in the tournament. Finland will want to play its usual, sound defensive game that capitalizes on mistakes, hoping to get the lead and ride Rimpinen’s goaltending to gold.
Unfortunately, no one has been able to keep the Americans down, with Finland holding them to their lowest output of the tournament at three goals. Five of the seven American games saw at least six goals and I expect another such result tonight.
Over 5.5
Gabe Perreault anytime goalscorer
Ryan Leonard anytime goalscorer
We’re putting together this SGP with a dynamite tandem on the American top line. Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault did a number on Czechia, each registering a goal and an assist.
Perreault is tied for the tournament lead with nine points, including three goals, but it was his first tally since the opening game of the tournament when he potted two against Germany.
Leonard has been on fire, second in the tournament in goals with five and points with eight. He’s scored goals in three straight games, including three goals in the two knockout round games against Switzerland and Czechia.
Finland is 5-5 all-time in the WJHC gold medal game, while the Americans are 6-2.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.
Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.
When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.
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