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🏆 Playoffs
Last updated: February 15, 2025 3:54 PM EST • 4 min read X Social Google News Link
As you can see by the pick’em odds at Betway, there’s little separating the USA and Canada as they prepare for a massive clash on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET from Bell Centre in Montreal (ABC).
The Americans are the 4 Nations Face-Off odds favorites after a dominant 6-1 win over Finland, and Canada also held serve against Sweden while winning 4-3.
However, our USA vs. Canada prediction and picks don’t anticipate the Americans’ status as slight favorites to matter much when these two giants lock horns.
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
You can argue about the outcome of this head-to-head until you’re red, white, and blue in the face. There are two schools of thought. First, the Americans have superior goaltending, which I outlined in our early 4 Nations Face-Off predictions.
Vezina Trophy odds runaway favorite Connor Hellebuyck cruised to the victory against the Finns, giving up just one goal and finishing with 1.73 goals saved above expected—same old, same old for the indomitable American.
Meanwhile, Canada’s Jordan Binnington had some uh-uh moments but conjured a few timely and game-saving stops against the Swedes.
While there’s no arguing about who has the advantage between the pipes, Canada is at home with the last change. Having the match-up advantage can be critical for this contest. Jon Cooper will be able to mitigate, even offset, the threat provided by those he knows all too well — like the Tkachuk brothers, Jack Hughes, Jake Guentzel, and Auston Matthews — from his time coaching Tampa Bay.
Cooper knows what is required to impede those runaway trains, whether by sending the top two lines out or using his Tampa Bay connection — Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. While the loss of Shea Theodore will hurt the Canadians, the USA is playing without Quinn Hughes.
I also like that Canada faced stiffer adversity in their opener against the Swedes. Though it took a while, the USA broke things open in the third against Finland. Being pushed to the brink as Canada was might help them get up to speed slightly quicker.
If Binnington plays like he did in the latter stages of the opener, Canada should edge this one, albeit barely. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.33.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Matthew Tkachuk put it perfectly when he said it would be like playing three — hopefully four — Stanley Cup Final Game 7s. No disrespect to the Finns, but they probably wouldn’t even make the postseason in that metaphor.
If Saturday’s tilt transpires like a Game 7, as I’m sure it will, space will be a premium. I can’t see either team taking many penalties, which means it should be decided 5-on-5, a more conducive Under 6.5 goal scenario.
In addition, the Americans have the world’s best netminder between the pipes, so Canada will understand acutely the importance of playing a flawless defensive game. Yes, both teams have more firepower than a munitions depot, but they also possess the world’s best collective defenses.
In a Game 7 scenario, defense usually prevails. A winning $10 bet will profit $7.69.
Best odds: -130 via Betway | Implied probability: 56.52%
Odds via Betway.
Here are the rosters for Saturday’s 4 Nations Face-Off USA vs. Canada matchup.
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