By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman
In the immediate wake of yet another playoff loss, many long-tenured Maple Leafs offered the same company line: Pressure is a privilege.
If that’s true, the privilege of wearing the blue-and-white only grows with each year of disappointment. This season, the first since 2015-16 without Mitch Marner, is no exception.
Advertisement
The Leafs are long overdue to actually do something when it matters, now in Year 10 of the Auston Matthews era with little to show for it. The biggest concern: This team’s best chance to go the distance may already be behind them.
Welcome to life without Marner.
Toronto hasn’t had a point projection this low since 2017-18, Matthews’ second season. Since then, they’ve usually been a lock for a 105-to-110 point forecast (only to disappoint when it matters later). Without Marner, the Leafs start the season on the fringes of the contender’s circle, much closer to dark horse territory.
Glass half empty: The grass isn’t always greener. Those who have bemoaned Marner’s existence for the past five years can now enjoy the real possibility that the Leafs don’t even make the playoffs. A 21 percent chance is not nothing — it’s roughly the odds Montreal had against Toronto during the 2021 playoffs.
Glass half full: It’s not over just because Marner left. He’s one player and the Leafs are not that far from contending, even without him. All they need is a healthy Matthews and a committee behind him ready to fill Marner’s void.
Can the Leafs replace Marner in the aggregate?
It’s not anything close to a novel concept, as anyone who’s read or seen “Moneyball” can attest, but the Leafs’ best bet — and the one they’ve clearly chosen — is to try to replace Marner’s contributions via a few separate players. It can be easy to forget, given the overall state of things, just how outstanding a player Marner is.
Matias Maccelli, a 24-year-old winger acquired via trade with the Mammoth, spent time on several lines during the preseason, including in Marner’s old spot next to Matthews. Maccelli makes some degree of sense there; he played two seasons with Utah at a 60-point pace, showed some solid playmaking from the wing and produced to the level of a decent second-liner. Of particular note was Maccelli’s passing; he tied for 17th in his assist rate (1.54 per 60 minutes) at five-on-five, ahead of other more highly regarded playmaking wingers like Jesper Bratt, Mark Stone and Artemi Panarin.
Advertisement
There’s a reason he was available, of course. In 2024-25, Maccelli’s output dipped pretty severely (18 points in 55 games) and he was a frequent healthy scratch on a non-playoff team. He doesn’t play with a ton of pace and he’s not physical. The optimist’s view, though, is that he’s still young with a solid track record and certain skills that are at least glancingly familiar to Marner’s. His ultimate challenge, coach Craig Berube said during the preseason, is getting the puck to Matthews with enough frequency.
Max Domi, of course, is another option. His playmaking stats are similar to Maccelli’s, and the Leafs dramatically won his minutes (56:42) with Matthews over the previous two seasons, including an expected goal share of 72 percent. His defensive issues are well known, though they’re less glaring as a winger.
A forward step from Matthew Knies would be a boost. That’s not to discount what he did in his second full NHL season; expecting more productivity would probably be unfair, given that he was quite nearly a 30-30 player as a 22-year-old. If his ceiling in terms of production is 30 goals … well, Toronto will take it. The thought among league observers is that Knies has room to grow as a playmaker. Maybe he takes over some of those duties from Marner — or maybe his own production dips without an elite passer on his line.
There are also defensive considerations — and those, no doubt, are part of why Toronto played hardball in the Marner sign-and-trade, eventually returning Nicolas Roy from Vegas. That was a nice get for Brad Treliving, and Roy is a useful player. Over the past two seasons, he scored above a top-six rate and has some strong defensive chops, particularly on getting pucks out of his zone. Taking some of the difficult minutes typically heaped on Marner and Matthews and shuffling it off to a more defensively apt third line, with Roy as the center, would make sense.
On the power play, the five-forward unit only works when one of them is Marner — so those minutes are going back to Morgan Rielly. With Marner on the ice last season, Toronto’s power play scored about 10.8 goals per 60, which would’ve been third in the league overall. Toronto’s on-ice numbers with Rielly were comparable, but worse, and he was definitely a more passive participant in the process; Marner put up 1.25 PP goals per 60 compared to Rielly’s 0.4 and 4.01 primary assists to Rielly’s 0.8. That’s a gulf.
The simplest route to navigating life without Marner is, of course, for Matthews to once again play like an MVP. Fewer punishing minutes and consistent time with half-decent playmakers won’t hurt, but if this is going to work out for Toronto, it’ll be because Matthews thrived under new, tougher, worse circumstances. Goose that Net Rating back up to 30 or thereabouts without your 100-point linemate and win a playoff round or three, while you’re at it. Easy-peasy.
Advertisement
Can the Leafs repeat last year’s elite goaltending?
Anthony Stolarz was a revelation last season. He put up some of the best numbers in the league, between a .926 save percentage and 31.2 goals saved above expected.
Can he maintain that with a heavier workload?
Stolarz’s play over the last couple of seasons is an indicator that he can. As one team analyst explained over the summer, “his talent puts him there” with other top goalies. A former goalie mentioned that he is “as quality as anybody else,” which could have earned him some Vezina love if he played 55 games.
It’s not a perfect science, though. Sometimes, sparkling numbers don’t translate as smoothly to a true starting capacity. So having a reliable 1B is pivotal.
Joseph Woll was that last year, with a .909 save percentage and GSAx of 17.1 in 42 games. But there isn’t a ton of clarity on whether he will be that when the season starts. Woll is on an indefinite leave of absence, which has brought James Reimer back into the fold on a PTO. With a minus-3.7 Net Rating, Reimer projects to be about league-average as a backup, but this isn’t someone the Leafs can lean on.
Whether Stolarz can be The Guy was always going to be the biggest piece of the goalie puzzle in Toronto. Without Woll, that just became even more pressing.
The reason it’s so vital for Toronto’s goaltending to not regress is that last season, it became the team’s identity. All the star talent in the world and yet the Leafs were still functionally a Goalie Team. You know the one — out-chanced most games, but bailed out by studs between the pipes. That’s a dangerous thing to rely on. But in Stolarz and Woll, the Leafs likely have two high-end options; their (worse) version of what Boston once had with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman.
Advertisement
Aside from that, Toronto’s other major strength continues to be its Core Four. The New Core Four, anyway.
The emergence of Knies is a big deal for Toronto extending its window, especially in the wake of Marner’s departure. Knies gives the Leafs a missing element at the top of the lineup, a true power forward who adds bite on top of production. His net-front presence last season was an underrated element to an improved power play and he’s an elite forechecker. He’s no Tkachuk brother, but Knies’ jump toward legitimate top-line forward looks real.
The remaining members of the Core Four grade out favorably relative to their roles. Matthews is expected to return to form as a top-five player, though there’s obviously an asterisk there that depends on his health. A ceiling of 65-plus goals and a floor of 35-to-40 goals creates a wide range of possibilities that could very well dictate how far the Leafs go this season.
While Matthews offers a lot more than just scoring, he’s at his best as an Ovechkin-Kopitar hybrid. The Kopitar part is fine on its own, but it’s the Ovechkin part that raises Toronto’s ceiling. While Matthews has had his share of playoff disappointment, it’s worth noting how frequently he’s been less than 100 percent come April. Getting the best version of Matthews when it matters most is crucial.
What also raises Toronto’s ceiling is the current level of William Nylander and John Tavares. For all his defensive warts, Nylander has grown into one of the league’s most consistent producers and scored a career-high 45 goals last season — his third straight over 40. There aren’t many players more dangerous in transition who create more chances than Nylander. As tough as it is that Marner has left, having Nylander slide up as the new No. 2 alleviates some of the pain. As for Tavares, his hockey IQ has allowed him to age gracefully to the point he’s still scoring at a 40-plus goal and point-per-game pace. It’s hard to imagine he repeats that, but it’s clear Tavares still has a lot of game.
Despite Marner’s absence, Toronto’s top forward quartet still comes in at plus-57 in combined Net Rating. That ranks third to only Edmonton and Tampa Bay.
While the Leafs still have some depth concerns up front (we’ll get to that), the bottom six looks a lot more passable these days. Scott Laughton should give the Leafs one of their most effective fourth lines in years and the third line has potential to be improved depending on how it’s configured.
On defense, the Leafs have created one of the league’s sturdiest defensive units. Chris Tanev has been a massive addition in particular on that front, adding a plus-5.9 Defensive Rating on his own. Only Mikey Anderson grades out higher among defensemen league-wide. Tanev’s positioning, stick-work and ability to get out of trouble in his own zone are all elite hallmarks of his game. He’s a pillar in the top four creating a strong shutdown pair with Jake McCabe. With the pair on the ice last year, Toronto allowed just 2.18 xGA/60 and 1.82 GA/60. It’s been a long time since the Leafs have had such a dependable pair.
Advertisement
Further down, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a luxury on the third pair as a secondary source of offense from the backend, while Brandon Carlo is the yin to Morgan Rielly’s yang. The two spent a decent chunk of time together after the deadline (220 minutes) and earned a scintillating 61 percent actual and expected goal rate together. If Carlo can be the key to unlock Rielly’s full potential, the Leafs might have solved one of their longest-standing issues.
There have been brief times where Rielly has looked like a legitimate No. 1 defenseman. A flawed one, yes, but one that was at least passable.
There are the years where he’s scored at roughly a 70-point pace while significantly winning his minutes thanks to his high-level puck-moving. There are the years where he’s upped his game significantly when it matters most while other core pieces falter. But on the whole, it just hasn’t been enough and that remains the case entering the 2025-26 season.
The average No. 1 defenseman comes in at a plus-8.8 Net Rating. The league’s top contenders — the six teams ranked above Toronto — sit at plus-12.9, roughly the same ballpark as the Cup Checklist indicates. Rielly falls well short of both numbers.
It’s possible that Carlo can bring more out of Rielly and to his credit, his defensive game has improved from where it was in years past. But that’s come at a massive cost to his offensive upside.
Rielly used to be one of the game’s best defensemen at generating offense, joining the rush, and moving the puck. All of that has declined over the last few years culminating in last year’s disappointing 0.76 points-per-60 at five-on-five, his lowest mark since 2016-17. A return to the top power-play can help spark more offense compared to last year, but Rielly’s five-on-five issues are the real story here.
It’s especially vital because one of Toronto’s biggest problems is offense from the back end. Not only is the team’s primary weapon not strong enough, the Leafs don’t have a strong enough secondary weapon either. As strong as Tanev and Carlo both are defensively, they are one-dimensional players that add stress to Toronto’s forwards, leading to a safer game. The Leafs can win more games 2-1, but also struggle more to come back from 2-1 deficits. Offense is still the team’s calling card and the Leafs have more balance overall, but the lack of help from the blue line is part of what makes things difficult come playoff time. Simon Benoit was strong enough in 2023-24, but is a serious drag in this department.
Advertisement
All of that is exacerbated by the lack of a secondary layer of attack up front. “Depth” is always a question mark in Toronto and while the bottom six looks beefed up this year, the Leafs’ depth problem will continue to persist due to a lack of top-six options. The best teams aren’t deep because they have third-line quality on the fourth line; they’re deep because they have first-line quality on the second line, and top-six quality on the third line.
Toronto has two pairs that can drive the top six in Matthews-Knies and Nylander-Tavares, but there are significant holes around those pairs. Domi, Bobby McMann, and Maccelli probably won’t cut it for a team with contending aspirations.
The Leafs have enough strengths to land in the league’s upper echelon once again this season, but still carry too many holes relative to the teams that land higher in the league’s pecking order.
Matthews returns to full health with a 60-plus goal season that puts him back in the MVP race. He drags a deeper Leafs team to another Atlantic Division title with help from its elite goaltending. This time Toronto makes due on that seeding with a run to the Stanley Cup Final.
Turns out the grass isn’t always greener and a Marner-less Leafs team doesn’t have the high-end juice to even make the playoffs — not with a step back between the pipes and a decline from an aging defense group.
There were plenty of reasons that the Marner-Maple Leafs marriage had to end, but it’s hard to look at their current roster and see a team any closer to its ultimate goal, and another playoff disappointment will fall more squarely on a different set of shoulders.
References
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
Spot the pattern. Connect the terms
Find the hidden link between sports terms
Play today's puzzle
Hockey News