We cashed in on the only NHL game on Wednesday night, and now we have a much larger slate of games to bet on Thursday.
Let's not waste any time. It's time to dive into my top three plays for Thursday night's hockey action.
I expected some regression from the Boston Bruins this season but it's been even worse than I predicted. Despite an overall fine record at 3-3-1 through their first seven games, they're 29th in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage and 28th in CORSI%.
The depth of the Stars lineup should be able to exploit the top-heavy Bruins lineup. I'll back Dallas as a road favorite.
Pick: Stars -120
The Minnesota Wild continue to play an extremely defense-oriented style of hockey and as I've wrote in the past, if the total in their games continue to bet set at 6 or 6.5, I'm going to continue to bet the UNDER, especially if it's as plus-money.
The Wild are second in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 2.04 but 29th in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes at 2.21. The Lightning have played some reckless hockey so far this season but I don't expect that to continue. A bounce back performance from Andrei Vasilevskiy could be in the books.
Pick: UNDER 6 (+102)
No team has played better offensive hockey during 5-on-5 play this season than the Rangers, who lead the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes at 3.95 while also leading in high-danger scoring chances per game at 15.66. As is the case with most teams who play an all-out offensive style of hockey, they're also giving up the fourth most high-danger scoring chances to their opponents at 14.67 per 60 minutes.
Considering they're scoring an average of 5.11 goals per 60 minutes through their first six games, I'm baffled as to why the total is set at just 5.5 for their game tonight against the Panthers.
Pick: OVER 5.5 (-120)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!
Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.
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