The final stretch of the NHL regular season is here. Teams battling for postseason berths and playoff seeding makes plenty of must-watch action on a nightly basis. Tuesday night is no different.
As always, I have three bets locked in. This time, it's a favorite, an underdog, and a player prop. Let's dive into them.
The Senators have been hot lately, going 8-4-1 since the All-Star break. With that in mind, I don't think their underlying metrics match their record. For example, they rank 27th in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage in that time frame. Meanwhile, the Sabres, are 22nd in that stat.
The underlying numbers shoe the Sabres are a great bet as home underdogs tonight. The Senators are due for regression.
Pick: Sabres +130
The Blues have been the best team in the NHL since the All-Star break. Not only are they 12-2-2 in that time period, but they have the metrics to back it up, ranking fourth in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage. A big part of that success has been their defense, leading the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against and ranking second in high-danger scoring chances allowed.
I have faith St. Louis is going to continue to hot streak tonight against an overperforming Canadiens team.
Pick: Blues -155
Valeri Nichushkin has been red-hot in March. He has six goals and 11 points this month, including scoring a goal in three of his last five games. Now that he's been playing on the top line, he has seen a significant increase to his ice time as well. Tonight seems like a great spot for him to score again as he and the Avalanche take on Cam Talbot of the Red Wings who has an .898 save percentage and an .849 save percentage in March.
Pick: Valeri Nichushkin Anytime Goal (+150)
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Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.
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