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This week, we will examine some teams off to fast fantasy starts in the Western Conference and focus on skaters who are off to unsustainable starts in the 2025-26 campaign. These could be targets to sell high or players to be aware of on your rosters who are likely to slow down their production, along with the team in general.
5v5S% (team shooting percentage at 5on5 while the player is on the ice) is a great barometer for sustainable production, as the league average is usually around nine or 10% (9.6%: 2025-26; 9.2%: 2024-25). The top skaters are generally around 11.5 to 12.5% each season.
Much like the stat PDO (5v5S% plus 5v5Sv%), 5v5S% usually tells us what range is the norm, and if players are teams are outliers, they usually come back to that norm sooner or later.
Here are the top skaters in the NHL since 2023-24 in 5v5S%(On-IceS%) from NHL.com with a minimum of 50 games played.
Just a reminder that this stat only takes into account even-strength play and can really have an effect on players who rely more on those points than power-play points.
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks have averaged 3.6 goals per game after 10 games in 2025-26. They averaged 2.65 per game in 2024-25. Anaheim averaged 27.7 shots per game in 2024-25 and is currently averaging 31.6/g.
The Ducks have a 5 on 5 shooting percentage (5v5S%) of 9.6, which is 16th in the NHL and the league average. In 2024-25, the top team in the NHL had a 5v5S% of 10.6, and the league average was about 9.2. The Ducks were at 8.8% which was 18th in the NHL.
Anaheim is 14th in the NHL with an 11.6 shooting percentage compared to 9.6 percent in 2024-25 (27th overall in the NHL). Only two NHL teams had more than a 12.0 shooting percentage in 2024-25, Washington and Tampa Bay at 12.6 and 12.5.
The Ducks are clearly better offensively in 2025-26 and are one of the more capable teams on this list to actually break out and sustain most of their early production. They might not deserve to be on this list.
Cutter Gauthier (F) (11-7-5-12)
Gauthier has had an excellent start to his sophomore campaign. Is he able to reach 48-52 goals and 80-85 points? His shooting percentage is fine at 13.2, and he hasn’t seen much time on the power play (41.2%), so those boxes check out for him.
When you look at his shots per game (4.8) compared to 2.3 in 2024-25, it stands out as a number which should come down to reality. Nathan MacKinnon has a career average of 4.0 and has a career-high of 5.2 in 2022-23, but Gauthier is no MacKinnon.
Tie this into his 5v5S% of 12.3 and a PDO of 106.3, and this tells us that things are going a little too well for him.
Even if he can average 3.5 shots per game and have a shooting percentage of 12.5, over 80 games, that works out to 35 goals. That is probably a realistic target for him for the balance of 2025-26..
Troy Terry (F) (11-5-8-13)
Terry has a career-high 5v5S% of 10.5 in 2022-23 when he put up 23 goals and 38 assists in 70 games. In 2025-26, his 5v5Sv% is 12.3, and he has five goals and eight assists after 11 games.
His career average shooting percentage is 12.9, with a career-high of 19.3 in 2021-22 when he had 37 goals on 2.6 shots on goal per game. He is currently shooting 19.2 percent on 2.4/g.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks have averaged 3.17 goals per game after 12 games in 2025-26. They averaged 2.73 per game in 2024-25, along with 24.5 shots on goal per game, which was the league low. They are at 24.8/g currently.
Chicago has a 5v5S% of 11.8, tied with Winnipeg for the highest in the NHL, compared to 9.2 in 2024-25 (15th in the NHL).
The Blackhawks are 6th in the NHL with a 12.8 shooting percentage compared to 11.2% in 2024-25 (10th overall).
As a team, Chicago is bound to revert offensively, as they haven’t increased their shots on goal from 2024-25 but have marginally improved their shooting percentage.
Connor Bedard (F) (12-6-9-15)
Bedard is on pace for 41goals and 61 assists in 2025-26. I don’t doubt he can reach those point numbers, but perhaps not this year.
His shooting percentage of 16.2 and shots on goal per game of 3.1 are well within his wheelhouse, but his 5v5S% of 14.9 is far too high. He might get 40 goals, but 100 points are probably a reach right now.
Frank Nazar (F) (12-5-6-11)
Nazar is on pace for 34 goals and 41 assists after 12 games. Right now, his shooting percentage is at 17.9, and his 5v5S% is at 12.9. The shooting percentage is a tad high but attainable. The 5v5S% is high and should come down, which should have an impact on his production.
Perhaps he can add some power play points, as he is currently on the first unit and offset some of the ES reversion.
Teuvo Teravainen (F) (12-2-7-9)
Teravainen is on pace for 14 goals and 48 assists, which on the surface looks like he’s right in his production window as he’s averaged 20 goals and 38 assists over 82 games the past three years.
Unfortunately, he’s only ever had a 5v5S% over 10 in his career (10.6 in 2020-21) once, and he is currently at 13.1%. There is only one direction that number is going.
Andre Burakovsky (F) (11-4-5-9)
Burakovsky is on pace for 60-65 points in 2025-26, his first with Chicago. He does have a career-high of 22 goals and 39 assists while with Colorado in 2021-22, but he hasn’t had more than 39 points in a season since.
His shooting percentage sits at 26.7 compared to his career average of 13.5. He has never had 5v5S% above 10 in his career and sits at 12.5% currently.
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks have averaged 3.33 goals per game after 12 games in 2025-26. They averaged 2.54 per game in 2024-25, which was last in the NHL. San Jose averaged 26.9 shots per game in 2024-25 and is currently at 25.7/g.
San Jose has a 5v5S% of 11.5, which is the third highest in the NHL compared to 8.3 (25th overall) in 2024-25.
The Sharks are 5th in the NHL with a 13.0 shooting percentage compared to 9.4% in 2024-25 (29th overall).
They have some very exciting young players and have been scoring quite a few more goals in 2025-26. Can they sustain 3.33 goals per game after just 2.54 in 2024-25? I say we split the difference and assume they come in just under or just above three per game. It’s still quite an improvement and takes into account some reversion.
Macklin Celebrini (F) (13-7-11-18)
Celebrini is on pace for 44 goals and 69 assists in 2025-26. Much like Bedard above, I have no doubt he will get there one day, but perhaps not this year.
He has a 5v5S% of 16.6, which is extremely high and will need to come down. He also has an unhealthy PDO of 108.5, which will come down as well.
He’s a phenomenal young talent.
Will Smith (F) (13-4-7-11)
Smith is on pace for 25 goals and 44 assists in 2025-26 after posting 18 goals and 27 assists in 74 games as a rookie.
He has a 16.0 shooting percentage on 1.9 shots per game, which are both quite sustainable. Unfortunately, his 5v5S% is 13.6, which is high. He did have a 10.1 percent in 2024-25 as a rookie, so he might have more years above 10 than below in his career.
69 points might be a stretch in 2025-26.
Philipp Kurashev (F) (11-5-4-9)
Kurashev is a great comeback story in 2025-26 after just 14 points in 51 games with Chicago in 2024-25.
He’s on pace for 37 goals and 30 assists over 82 games, but he’s never had more than 18 goals or 54 points in his career. He’s shooting 20 percent on 2.3 shots on goal per game.
His 5v5S% is an astronomical 20.4 and will plummet sooner than later. He is riding a heater, which will slow down.
Utah Mammoth
Utah has averaged 3.5 goals per game after 12 games in 2025-26. They averaged 2.93 per game in 2024-25. The Mammoth averaged 28.5 shots per goal in 2024-25 and is currently at 29.3/g.
Utah has a 5v5S% of 10.6, which is 7th in the NHL compared to 8.3 (24th overall) in 2024-25.
The Mammoth are 12th in the NHL with an 11.9 shooting percentage compared to 10.3 percent in 2024-25 (21st).
I had pegged Utah to be improved as a club over 2024-25, but I didn’t see the offensive surge this early in their ascension to playoff contention.
They have a lot of talent, so none of their team numbers scream out for a large reversion. I think there will be one, but it might be down to 3.2 or 3.3 goals per game.
The concern might be that they have a lot of their top players overproducing at the moment.
Nick Schmaltz (F) (12-7-10-17)
Schmaltz is on pace for 48 goals and 68 assists. His career high is 63 points in 2024-25 and 23 goals in 2021-22.
His shooting percentage is 17.9, which he’s had before, but the difference for him is that his shots on goal have exploded to 3.3 per game after averaging 1.8 per game over his almost 600 NHL games. I would expect this number to come down or his shooting percentage to decrease.
He’s had seasons of 11.5% and 13% in 5v5S%, so he’s no stranger there (although he’s currently at 14.6%). When he was at 13% he had 59 points in 63 games and 51 ES points in those games, which was 0.81 ES points per game. He’s currently at a 0.92 ES points per game pace.
Logan Cooley (F) (12-8-4-12)
Cooley is shooting 29.6 percent, so we can assume that comes down a little and takes him off his 55-goal pace. He’s only getting 2.3 shots on goal per game.
The bigger picture is his 82-point pace, and can he sustain that? His 5v5S% is 18.7, and his PDO is 110.6 so it’s unlikely. He did have an 11.6 5v5S% in 2024-25 so his reversion might be minimal from a production viewpoint.
Dylan Guenther (F) (12-5-7-12)
Guenther has a high 5v5S% of 16.9, which will need to come down. He was at 9.3% in 2024-25 when he had 27 goals and 33 assists.
Last year in 70 games, he had 31 ES points and 29 power play points. In 12 games in 2025-26, he had nine ES points and three PPP. If he can get that much production again on the PP, he should surpass his career-highs from 2024-25.
JJ Peterka (F) (12-4-6-10)
Peterka is on pace for 27 and 41 assists, which is identical to what he had in Buffalo in 2024-25. His 5v5S% is 16.8, but he did have 14.2% in 2024-25. His number will come down, but perhaps not by that much.
His shots on goal are down from 2.2 to 1.8 per game, and his ice time is down from 18:11 to 16:23 per game. He might have trouble matching his output from last year.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas has averaged 3.55 goals per game after 11 games in 2025-26. They averaged 3.34 per game in 2024-25. They averaged 30.3 shots per game in 2024-25 and are at 28.0/g right now.
Vegas has a 5v5S% of 9.4, which is 17th in the NHL compared to 9.0 (17th overall) in 2024-25.
The Golden Knights are 7th in the NHL with a 12.7 shooting percentage compared to 11.0 percent in 2024-25 (13th overall).
Adding a player like Mitch Marner to an already potent offense might be the sole reason for the increase in Vegas’s team numbers, although individually, there are a few overproducers.
Jack Eichel (F) (11-8-11-19)
Eichel has a career-high of 94 points, which he posted in 2024-25. He is on pace for 60 goals and 82 assists. His shooting percentage is at 17.0, and his shots on goal per game is at 4.3. His career average is 11.0% and 3.6/g. Nothing out of reach.
He’s had nine of his 19 points on the power play, so his 5v5S% numbers will only influence the 10 points he’s had in 11 games. Currently, he’s at 14.4% which is higher than his career high of 11.4% in 2024-25.
Nine of his 11 assists have been secondary, which could dry up a little.
I think he will break 100 points for the first time in his career in 2025-26 if he plays 75 games or more.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets have averaged 3.75 goals per game after 12 games in 2025-26. They averaged 3.35 per game in 2024-25. Winnipeg averaged 28.2 shots per game in 2024-25 and is currently at 27.1/g.
The Jets’ 5 on 5 shooting percentage (5v5S%) is first in the NHL at 11.8 compared to 9.2 (16th overall) in 2024-25.
Winnipeg is 2nd in the NHL with a 13.9 shooting percentage compared to 11.9% in 2024-25 (3rd overall in the NHL).
Mark Scheifele (F) (12-9-11-20)
Scheifele has a high career shooting percentage of 17.4 and was at 21.8% in 2024-25 when he scored 39 goals on 2.2 shots on goal per game.
He is on pace for 61 goals and 75 assists, which are probably not realistic for Scheifele. His shooting percentage is at 29.0, and his 5v5S% is at 14.6. He’s been above 10% six times in his career, with a high of 11.69 in 2016-17.
Scheifele has a career-high of 87 points, which could be in danger.
Kyle Connor (F) (12-8-9-17)
Connor is on pace for 55 goals and 61 assists. He’s flirted with 50 goals before (47 goals in 2021-22) so that is well within his abilities. He has a shooting percentage of 17.0 with a career average of 14.8 and is averaging 3.9 shots on goal per game, above his career average of 3.2/g.
He has just three power-play assists, so his eight goals and six assists have come at even strength in 12 games. This is where his production might be influenced by his very high 5v5S% of 17.0. His career-high was 11.1% in 2024-25.
Thanks very much for reading. If you have any comments or suggestions, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter @gampbler15.
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