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By Tony Abbott –
In the end, all it took to bridge the seemingly unbridgable gap between the Minnesota Wild and Marco Rossi was… another bridge. After neither side made ground on a long-term deal, the two parties kicked the can down the road for three years, with a contract that will carry a $5 million cap hit.
Both sides get to save a bit of face here. Bill Guerin and the Wild secured the sort of low-cost “second contract” that’s rapidly becoming extinct in the NHL. Meanwhile, Rossi got the AAV the Wild initially wanted for a five-year deal, but without having to sell off any of his UFA years.
But for the short term, there’s not much doubt who gets the better end of the deal, and that’s the team. $5 million per season actually comes beneath the $5.26 million projection that Evolving-Hockey’s contract model estimated for a three-year term at the beginning of the offseason. Heck, just yesterday, the Chicago Blackhawks paid Frank Nazar III for seven years at a $6.60 million cap hit, and Nazar has just 27 career points!
Beyond the raw numbers and comparables, Rossi’s cap hit of $5 million, rather than, say, $7 million, has practical benefits for the Wild this season. They’ve now got their full 23-man roster locked in, with $4.41 million in cap space. As things stand, the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils are the only teams that made the postseason last year that have more cap space than Minnesota.
After sitting on the sidelines at the trade deadline these past few years, the Wild are finally poised to make a splash. It’d still be possible to swing a big trade had Rossi made $7 million, but the Wild undeniably have more flexibility with him at a $5 million price point.
These short-term benefits make the “second contract” appealing to GMs like Guerin. To refresh your memory on the old economics of the NHL, the “second contract” was in its heyday during the first decade or so of the salary cap era. Teams had players under control coming off their entry-level contracts, and the threat of offer sheets was mild. So teams would give their star players a bump on a short-term deal that walked their big payday closer to free agency, giving the team some time to stagger the financial hit.
The “second contract” isn’t dead yet, but those are largely reserved for mid-tier players, not stars. For example, Alex Laferriere (19 goals, 42 points last season), got a three-year, $4.1 AAV deal earlier this month. But for star-caliber players, it’s almost gone, even in Minnesota. Kirill Kaprizov got his $9 million AAV after one season. Matt “49 Sheets” Boldy got his payday coming off his ELC, as did Brock Faber following his rookie season.
But in aggressively pursuing the “second contract” for Rossi, Guerin ignored one critical fact: The “second contract” kind of sucks for star players.
Teams don’t give these massive paydays out of the goodness of their hearts. They’re trying to get a deal. They’re buying high now, but in the long run, they believe that they’re paying a player as little as possible for as long as possible.
That’s why we’ve seen an explosion in cap hits for players who haven’t shown to be as good as Rossi. There is undeniably sticker shock when, say, Gabriel Vilardi gets a $7.5 million cap hit, or Matt Coronato gets $6.5 million, or Logan Stankoven gets $6 million. But as Rossi’s contract expires, the league salary cap will sit at $113.5 million. Over the long haul, those prices will become normal, and probably even bargains.
The same would likely have played out for Rossi. Had he gotten Boldy’s seven-year, $49 million deal, he would have made $7.3% of the salary cap for next season. By Year 3 of the contract, $7 million would already be just 6.1% of the cap, the equivalent of $5.9 million today. There’d be four more years of growth following that!
But now, at the end of those three years, there is going to be a payday for Rossi. Let’s assume that Rossi’s production stays relatively steady over that time, with no growth. He’s a 60-point center. That’s already worth about $7.7 million (8.1% of the 2025-26 cap) on the open market, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s Player Cards.
Assuming the cap jumps $6.5 million in 2028-29 to the $120 million range, we can estimate that Rossi’s market value will be approximately $9.68 million. And that’s if the growth we’ve seen over the last two seasons levels off, or if the cap increases start to slow.
Had Minnesota opted to go long-term with Rossi, his price point would have remained at $7 million, which, under a $120 million cap hit, would be equivalent to around $5.6 million today. Remember, they’d have also bought three UFA years with that salary!
The Wild have gotten a lot of mileage out of their limited dollars, largely due to being proactive and securing key players on deals that age well. Underpaying Kaprizov, Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek made a team with $15 million of dead money a playoff squad last season. That’s the power of cheap deals, and Minnesota still has five years remaining of Boldy at $7 million, and four seasons of Eriksson Ek at $5.25 million.
Guerin had an opportunity to add Rossi to that collection of eventual bargains, but either prioritized maximizing flexibility for the next three seasons or didn’t believe in Rossi enough to bet on a windfall of future savings. It might look great for these next three seasons, but the bill is going to come due eventually, and the Wild might wish they’d have played the long game when 2028 rolls around.
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By Mikki Tuohy
By Chris Schad
Posted
I’m not so sure I would put Rossi up there with Ek, Boldy and Faber.
The gamble is higher and the payout just isn’t as certain. The tools aren’t quite there.
I do think he will get better though and this could be the perfect contract for him to prove it.
Posted
The issue is what kind of “star” Rossi becomes. If he improves even more, (70-75+ pt player, or even PPG), Guerin should be doing cartwheels to get him for $9-10m per year. I don’t know why Guerin hasn’t been utterly convinced, but Rossi isn’t a Boldy level slam dunk star yet. He’s the next step down.
I am just happy they got SOMETHING done. It gives the team time for three different things:
1. See if Rossi, Yurov, etc is that elusive elite centerman the system has never had.
2. Wait and see if some team is dumb enough to part with theirs, or at least an elite winger.
3. Save money for Kap, plus a Gus extension or huge payday for Buium if he is anywhere close to his hype describes. Same holds true if any of the prospects somehow explode.
Posted
A few notes from a long article in The Athletic:
Rossi had no interest in a contract dispute that would keep him from arriving to training camp on time. If you’ve paid attention to his social media, he has bulked up significantly this offseason with countless hours in the gym and climbing the mountains of Austria. He also has been working on his faceoffs, at one point training with recently elected Hall of Famer Joe Thornton.
Last winter, he rejected a five-year, $25 million extension offer from the Wild, according to league sources. The comparables were centers like Dylan Strome, who signed for five years and $25 million in 2023, and Anton Lundell. who signed for six years and $30 million in 2024.
As for how this got across the finish line, Guerin indicated Friday that Rossi’s camp re-engaged with them a month ago, with the player showing his willingness to get a deal done.
The GM said he agrees with Rossi’s belief that he’s a top-six player and indicated he appreciates when a player bets on himself.
“I think he’s just scratching the surface,” Guerin said. “And I think this three-year contract gives him a good runway to turn into the player he can eventually become.”
As for Rossi…
When asked whether he’s happy where things are right now — considering the summer trade rumblings and his desire to be in a top-six role — Rossi said, “100 percent.”
“I’m excited now that a deal is done,” he said. “I can’t wait to get back on the ice with the guys.”
Posted
Good article, Tony. Glad to see a deal get done. Time will tell if this was good or bad.
Now what are you and your cohorts going to be writing about?
Posted
Good article Tony. I was one of them that was hoping for a longer term deal around 6.5-7, mainly because of what you mentioned in the article, that it could become a bargain in 4 years. Time will tell, but at least it is done.
Posted
He should have gotten 4x$6M, IMO. What he actually got is less valuable than the original 5×5 offer. He gets 4, then 5, then 6. That only favors the Wild as the cap increases each year, but it limits Rossi’s purchasing power and investment opportunities. Some of you may laugh, but that extra million up front could make a huge difference when your career only lasts around 15 years.
He’ll be making bottom six money this year so they can easily demote him and will be justified. This is exactly what Rossi didn’t want. If he can repeat last year’s performance, he’ll be in the top 20 bargains of the NHL and easily tradeable, which is Billy’s ultimate plan.
Posted
It’s a nice contract for the Wild for sure BUT…
Rossi’s floor is likely around 50-60 points while playing solid defense. At 7×7 that’s fair value and probably good value by the end
Rossi’s ceiling is completely unknown. He is a hard worker, coachable and student of the game. I think he will end up as a 70 point guy while playing excellent defense. At 7×7 that is INSANE value.
I’m going to be sad when he is gone in 2.5 years. (Unless BG is fired he will be traded because he isn’t resigning here)
Posted
I am glad it is done. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rossi traded to a team who saw his value before this contract as being higher, but either couldn’t do an offer sheet because of lack of picks or didn’t want the double whammy of picks and money. Billy is going to have a difficult time convincing another team that Rossi’s value is 7M+ when he just signed him for 5M AAV. If he is traded, he will likely be part of a multiple player deal with the Wild not getting his full value.
Posted
Good article, Tony. Glad to see a deal get done. Time will tell if this was good or bad.
Now what are you and your cohorts going to be writing about?
We don’t have to write about anything else. We *get* to write about anything else.
Posted
He should have gotten 4x$6M, IMO. What he actually got is less valuable than the original 5×5 offer. He gets 4, then 5, then 6. That only favors the Wild as the cap increases each year, but it limits Rossi’s purchasing power and investment opportunities. Some of you may laugh, but that extra million up front could make a huge difference when your career only lasts around 15 years.
This is because of qualifying offers. The QO is set based on the player’s salary in their last season of their contract.
Posted
I think part of the Wild prioritizing a lower AAV for Rossi is the appeal to KK that we’re entering into “win now”. That’s opposed to a likely payoff in 4 years contract/value wise with Rossi. With other key pieces locked up long term I like the flexibility this contract brings to the team. I’m confident Rossi will be bringing it this year. I’m not sure if it’ll be on “Our Ice” or as a supremely affordable trade piece. Rossi is handling a very difficult part of the NHL game with class.
Posted
I think Tony is right in his judgement. Guerin won, Rossi & his agent lost the bargaining. Shortterm. R is playing for cheap the next 3 years. There will be suitors in 2028 to pay him around 10 M AAV. If MIN wants to sign him they will have to pay the 6 M extra he lost, otherwise he will sign somewhere else. I’m pretty sure he will proof his true value in the next 3 years. And of course MIN would be silly to trade him before.
Posted
Billy is going to have a difficult time convincing another team that Rossi’s value is 7M+ when he just signed him for 5M AAV.
This is not true at all. Rossi is an RFA who had negligible leverage on a contract. The other team will do their analysis and determine what they think his value is. Billy won’t have to do anything as far as convincing. He’s not trying to drop the player. He is trying to use the player to get an even better one.
Perhaps Rossi is that better player? He bet on himself. Maybe he gets something long in the $10m range with consistent showings of 70+ pts? We can only hope for that.
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