NHL
Offer sheets feel more like a myth than reality in recent NHL history.
In the 20-year salary-cap era, only 10 have been signed. Eight were signed in the eight years between 2006 and 2013, from the Flyers trying to poach Ryan Kesler in 2006 and Shea Weber in 2012, to the Flames’ attempt to add Ryan O’Reilly from the Avalanche. All but one of those offer sheets were matched (the Oilers successfully added Dustin Penner in 2007).
Advertisement
But over the last nine offseasons, only two offer sheets have been signed and only two teams were involved. In 2019, Montreal tried to steal Sebastian Aho from the Hurricanes. Carolina matched. Then the Hurricanes got their revenge by offering Jesperi Kotkaniemi a one-year contract with a $6.1 million cap hit. The Canadiens let him go in exchange for a first- and a third-round pick in 2022.
Just because offer sheets don’t often happen doesn’t mean they shouldn’t. Restricted free agents tend to be underpaid and can be worth a bigger investment than their current team is willing to commit to. Opposing general managers should try and take advantage of that — especially if the player’s current team is in a salary bind.
After all, NHL general managers aren’t in business to make friends; they should be ruthlessly trying to contend even if it ruffles some feathers.
Like any other NHL transaction, offer sheets come with risk. Dedicating a big chunk of cap space to one player can be risky, but younger talent tends to be a better bet than the UFA market. The difference is restricted free agents who agree to an unmatched offer sheet cost compensation besides cap space.
Compensation is decided each year based on the cap hit extended to a player. A team has to have their pick for the following year at their disposal to extend an offer sheet.
Our Offer Sheet Calculator has been updated to the 2024 values
The calculator determines which teams have the required compensation to submit an offer sheet on an RFAhttps://t.co/fTuH7jrr7d pic.twitter.com/kUa75U7vYn
— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) June 4, 2024
The biggest names on the RFA market this summer include Seth Jarvis, Matty Beniers, Lucas Raymond, and Moritz Seider. While general managers should swing for the fences with these players, our goal is to find more plausible offer sheet candidates worth betting on from vulnerable teams.
With 30 teams on the outside looking in on the Stanley Cup Final, general managers have had a prime opportunity to watch Anton Lundell shine. His regular season didn’t quite meet the expectations that last season set, but he has picked up the pace in the playoffs. So other GMs should want to take advantage of Florida’s cap situation and add this up-and-coming center.
Advertisement
The Panthers need to sign at least five more forwards and another defenseman with just $20 million in cap space. At least $9 million of that could go to pending UFA Sam Reinhart if he is willing to sign a more team-friendly deal, and then there’s the Brandon Montour question. Either way, Florida can’t afford to sign Lundell to much more than a bridge deal, which is what Evolving-Hockey projects at two years and $3.4 million a year.
But say a team is willing to invest in Lundell long-term now — maybe to the tune of Evolving-Hockey’s six-year projection for an RFA signing with a different team carrying a $6.5 million cap hit. That would cost a first- and a third-round pick in compensation, which 20 NHL teams could swing based on draft capital.
Jarvis is the most eye-catching RFA on the Hurricanes after he developed into such a two-way threat. He seems like a lock to stick around in Carolina, no matter the cost of an offer sheet. Instead, GMs should target Marti Necas.
Things are different now with the Hurricanes from where they left off when the season ended — Don Waddell left for Columbus and Eric Tulsky is the GM. But it still seems like Necas could start the season elsewhere.
The big question for general managers will be whether the price for Necas will be more via trade or offer sheet. A five-year deal for Necas, according to Evolving-Hockey’s projections, projects to come in around $6.84 million a year on average which would cost a first and third-round pick in compensation. That’s above his market value after he fell short of his 2022-23 breakout year, but could still be worthwhile with the 25-year-old’s ceiling in mind. If the number goes above $6.87 million, though, that kicks up to a first, second, and third which only 13 teams could swing. So general managers with the available picks should contemplate whether this is the more cost-effective path to take compared to a trade.
Advertisement
Quiton Byfield’s breakout season came at the right time, with his entry-level contract expiring in just a few days.
By moving out Pierre-Luc Dubois’ $8.5 million cap hit in exchange for Darcy Kuemper, the Kings gained about $3.25 million in space. That leaves management just over $23 million in space to sign at least six forwards and one defender. It’s enough money to fill out the roster, but the Kings may want to allocate some of it to make legitimate improvements offensively — and that may require a bridge deal for Byfield. Evolving-Hockey projects a two-year deal worth an AAV of about $3.1 million, which may click with the player — it would give him time to boost his value further before committing to a bigger contract.
But general managers could see the value in Byfield now and want to find a way to add him before costs rise too high. A team could offer him a six-year contract (which would allow him to go for another big deal at age 27). The Kings could probably match something in the low-$6 million range that Evolving-Hockey projects for Byfield at that six-year term. But the closer a team gets to $7 million, which would be below market value, the more uncomfortable it should make Los Angeles.
With the Jacob Markstrom trade on Wednesday, the Devils found a number-one goaltender at a very reasonable price — only adding $4.13 million onto the books for two years. That leaves management with about $16 million to spend on at least four forwards and one defenseman. So concessions have to be made somewhere to keep costs balanced.
One concession may be keeping Dawson Mercer on a short-term bridge deal. That may be the only option to maintain some flexibility around their long-term deals, especially if they want to make any other improvements without subtractions.
That may be in the player’s best interest after he struggled to follow up his 2022-23 breakout year. A bridge deal buys him the time to boost his value.
Mercer projects to have an average market value of about $5.2 million over the next four years. Any offer sheet would probably have to exceed that in the hopes that he can rebound from last season which is a strong bet. Whether a team goes for a mid-range deal (maybe around Evolving-Hockey’s $5.78 million projection) or a six-year deal worth upwards of $6 million, the compensation would be the same: a first-rounder and a third. Either value would strain the Devils, which is what 31 teams should be trying to do.
The center market leaves a lot to be desired. Technically Sam Reinhart leads the way, but he almost exclusively skates on the wing now. After him, the list includes Steven Stamkos and Elias Lindholm. Then Sean Monahan, Matt Duchene, Chandler Stephenson, Adam Henrique, and Alex Wennberg follow.
Each player carries value, but when the market is thin, that value can inflate — just look at what teams paid for centers leading up to the trade deadline this year. So teams looking for a second-line center may find better value on the trade market or with an offer sheet.
Advertisement
The Avalanche’s cap situation is going to be tricky. A lot depends on whether management has to count Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin into their plans which leaves over $13 million of cap space in the air. So Colorado may only have so much to spend on Casey Mittelstadt.
Mittelstadt’s coming off his best season yet. He showed that his scoring had more substance behind it post-deadline, and proved to be a capable center on a contender. The Avalanche probably can swing something around his market value in the $5-6 million range. But other teams could push that number higher and limit Colorado’s ability to retain the 2C.
The Oilers are facing a cap crunch this summer. Edmonton projects to have about $10 million in cap space, with at least five openings up front and one on defense.
Management can try to make subtractions to gain cap space. If there’s a way to shed Jack Campbell’s contract, the Oilers will probably pursue it. Maybe Edmonton will also consider shedding Evander Kane’s $5.13 million cap hit since the team also needs more space in 2025 when both Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard seek new contracts.
If the Oilers buy themselves financial flexibility, the cap should be reserved for improving the blue line, adding some secondary scoring, and finding a reliable backup. That likely leaves little for Dylan Holloway.
An inexpensive short-term deal for Holloway would probably agree with the team and the player at this point. But he should still be on the radar for an offer sheet.
The difference between Holloway and some other restricted free agents is that teams don’t need to make some huge offer to acquire him. A team could offer him a short-term deal in the high-$3 million range or around $4 million for the reasonable compensation cost of just one second-round pick — something that 20 teams have at the ready.
Advertisement
Will a new coach help Cole Perfetti earn more opportunities in Winnipeg? It’s possible under Scott Arniel, who acknowledged how successful teams need young talent on inexpensive deals to make an impact.
Unless another team swoops in and sways Perfetti to sign an offer sheet.
The Jets are projected to have about $13.7 million in cap space with a few key openings. Dylan DeMelo and Brenden Dillon are both UFAs, while Logan Stanley is an RFA. Backup goalie Laurent Brossoit is also a free agent, as is deadline acquisition Sean Monahan who management is working to extend according to The Athletic’s Murat Ates.
If the Jets trade Nikolaj Ehlers, they will gain another $6 million in space. Maybe management also tries to shed the last year of Nate Schmidt’s contract. But Winnipeg may want to use that space to elevate their defense and add another difference-making forward after a disappointing Round 1 exit.
So, like Holloway, maybe a team can steal Perfetti without offering up too much. Maybe jumping up to the $4.58 million threshold that costs teams a first and third-round pick in compensation would be enough to price him out of Winnipeg. With his market value in mind, jumping up to the $5 million range wouldn’t be unreasonable, either.
Once again, the Golden Knights head into the offseason facing a cap crunch. It’s par for the course for Vegas at this point. Management tends to make splashy trades and spend big, then use the offseason to shed salary even if it means dumping players for nothing in return.
A lack of cap space could cost the Golden Knights players like Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson this summer. But if the team finds a way to extend either forward, or makes another addition this offseason, opposing general managers have an opening with Pavel Dorofeyev. An offer sheet for the 23-year-old could be as low as the $2-3 million range, which would only cost a second-round pick in compensation.
Advertisement
It’s a cost that most teams would be able to match. But most teams aren’t the Golden Knights, who always find themselves up against the cap. Plus, if general managers are willing to make waves with any team, it’s probably Vegas.
Seider leads the RFA class on defense, but he would be a challenge to pry out of Detroit. Utah has all the cap space to extend Sean Durzi and J.J. Moser. But maybe Thomas Harley is a more reasonable target this summer.
Harley is coming off an excellent regular season. He stepped up when Miro Heiskanen was injured. And when the team’s number one returned, Heiskanen and Harley formed a dynamic top pairing that thrived on both ends of the ice. So while the 22-year-old doesn’t have a long track record yet, investing in him could be more cost-effective than overpaying for an unrestricted free agent this summer.
The Stars have only three defenders signed for next year and likely see Harley as a part of the team for years to come. But management has bigger fish to fry first, like trying to extend Chris Tanev. Plus an early Jake Oettinger extension is likely on their radar. So, a short-term deal for Harley is probably the most team-friendly option for Dallas right now.
But if a general manager wants to be bold and take a leap, they could offer Harley something closer to his market value in the $7 million range. That would come at the cost of a first, second, and third-round pick but it would add a high-end defenseman in his prime for years to come.
Swayman was leaned on as the Bruins’ 1A this season and earned the starter’s net in the playoffs. So the obvious path for Boston this summer includes trading Linus Ullmark and extending Swayman.
As obvious as the path may be, there can still be some hurdles. An Ullmark trade may not materialize. Swayman could file for arbitration for the second straight season. Or another general manager could sign Swayman to an offer sheet.
Advertisement
The goalie market is far from inspiring this year, with names including Laurent Brossoit, Anthony Stolarz, Cam Talbot, and Scott Wedgwood, among others. The trade market has some options, but the cost for Juuse Saros will be astronomically high if he’s available (plus he is a UFA next year). Ullmark only has a year left on his contract, while John Gibson and Filip Gustavsson each carry risk. That’s why a long-term offer to Swayman, somewhere in the $8 million range, could be more appealing even with compensation in mind.
The Bruins could find a way to match that, but it will limit how much they can upgrade their offense. So at worst, it creates another set of challenges for one opposing general manager even if the offering team doesn’t land Swayman.
Data via CapFriendly, Evolving-Hockey, and Dom Luszczyszyn
(Top photo of Martin Necas and Anton Lundell: Eliot J. Schechter / NHLI via Getty Images)
Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.
Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
