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An offseason domino fell yesterday afternoon when the Chicago Blackhawks announced that they had re-signed Ryan Donato to a four-year extension carrying an average annual value of $4 million.
The winger's emergence as a source of offence fuelled rumours at the trade deadline linking him to the Ottawa Senators. General manager Steve Staios obviously pivoted to Fabian Zetterlund at the eleventh hour, but it is uncanny how many parallels there are between the two players – especially after the Senators announced they signed the Swedish-born winger to a three-year contract carrying an average annual value of $4.275 million.
A key distinction between the two is that Donato was slated to be an impending unrestricted free agent (UFA). In contrast, Zetterlund had arbitration rights and was two years removed from having UFA eligibility.
Beyond that, however, the 29-year-old Donato is coming off a career season in which he recorded 31 goals and 62 points in 80 games, essentially doubling his previous regular season highs in goals and points set during his 2020-21 season in Seattle.
In San Jose, Zetterlund tallied 17 goals and 36 points in 64 games on a lowly Sharks team while playing with William Eklund and Mikael Granlund. In his ensuing 20 games with the Senators, however, Zetterlund's production waned.
His two goals and five points were modest contributions by a player who was brought in to boost the offence of a team that had the second-fewest five-on-five goals in the league last season.
In fairness to Zetterlund, he arrived at a challenging moment. The Senators' lines were all playing at a high level, so there was no pressing need to risk disrupting their chemistry. The organization explained Zetterlund's usage on the fourth line as an opportunity to acclimate and integrate him slowly, affording him the chance to learn the system before being exposed to the pressures of playing up the lineup.
Eventually, those opportunities would come.
Zetterlund's most common linemates with Ottawa were Claude Giroux and Tim Stützle. The trio played just under 69 minutes together, and when they were on the ice, the Senators generated 51.77 percent of the shots (CF%), 47.29 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 34.49 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 48.62 percent of the expected goals. (As an aside, the Senators never scored a five-on-five goal with Zetterlund on the ice playing on the fourth line with Adam Gaudette and Matt Highmore.)
Those metrics are not particularly encouraging, especially considering the two-way talent level of his linemates, but a deeper dive into Zetterlund's individual rate statistics offers some reasons for optimism despite his lack of production.
According to NaturalStatTrick's data, of the forwards who logged more than 200 minutes at five-on-five with the Senators, only Brady Tkachuk generated a higher volume of shots, shots on goal and individual expected goals than Zetterlund.
To generate those levels of shot volume while scoring at the rate of a defenceman suggests that Zetterlund was incredibly snakebitten.
Another encouraging sign is the location of where Zetterlund generated shots.
Zetterlund is accustomed to slow starts in new organizations. After arriving in San Jose from New Jersey at the 2023 trade deadline, Zetterlund's production disappeared. The following season, he rallied to post the most productive regular season of his career with 24 goals and 44 points in 82 games.
Assuming that Zetterlund will receive an opportunity to play in the Senators' top-six and that he will continue to get to the middle of the ice and post high-volume shot rates, his goal rate should normalize.
It has to.
Although he skates well and is not afraid to get involved physically, Zetterlund is not an imposing player at his generously listed 5'11" height. And, at $4.25 million per season, he was rewarded with a contract that reflects the belief that he will be that player. That figure will look better over time as the salary cap ceiling continues to grow, but Zetterlund must be productive because if he is not contributing points, he is not impacting the game much away from the puck.
The risk for the Senators here is Zetterlund may be too similar to what they already have, creating a congestion of middle-six forwards who earn enough money to move the organization closer to the cap threshold without significantly impacting its true talent level.
One of the most difficult spots for an organization in any professional sport to navigate is that muddy middle.
The Senators can work the margins and look to make some gains at its depth positions, but there needs to be real marked growth and better external additions to help take this group to its Cup contention window.
Similar to the concerns of Donato in Chicago as a point merchant who benefited from predominantly playing big minutes on a line with one of the game's better young talents in Connor Bedard, Zetterlund cannot just be a 'good points on a bad team' player.
Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News Ottawa
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