NHL
Since New Year’s, the Bruins boast a 13-3-3 record and a .763 point percentage, which has helped them stay in the playoff picture. Megan Briggs / Getty Images
The big-picture plan for all 32 NHL teams revolves around one ultimate goal: Winning the Stanley Cup. But as each season rolls on, the pool of teams actually in contention thins out.
There is still a solid mix of teams vying for one of 16 coveted spots. So who will ultimately make it?
Each hopeful, both in the bubble and just outside, is building a case for and against a postseason berth. While there can always be surprises and wild swings down the stretch, for our purposes, those hopeful include teams on the fringes of the playoff picture, and outsiders within five points of the eighth seed.
The case for: David Pastrnak continues to prove that he is one of the best wingers in the world, no matter his surroundings. Whether he is skating alongside Morgan Geekie, who has already matched last year’s goal-scoring total with 33 in 59 games, Elias Lindholm, or Marat Khusnutdinov, Pastrnak is an elite offensive force. Pair that with a bounce-back season from Jeremy Swayman, who has given the Bruins a chance to win with 31 quality starts in 40 appearances this season. After saving 3.35 goals above expected against the Penguins on Tuesday, he is up to a GSAx of 34, which ranks third in the league.
Advertisement
Between those core performances, a red-hot power play, some two-way improvements at even strength and some solid supporting performances from players such as Hampus Lindholm, Viktor Arvidsson and Fraser Minten, among others, it’s made for a really strong 2026 so far in Boston.
Since New Year’s, the Bruins boast a 13-3-3 record and a .763 point percentage, which has helped them stay in the playoff picture. And there is a lot of substance behind that, as the team’s value has jumped by a plus-18.4 Net Rating over the last month.
The case against: As well as the Bruins have played this year, the team has been very streaky across the 59-game schedule. And really lucky: At five-on-five, this team is shooting 10.6 percent, and has a .914 save percentage. So the team has to find ways to add substance while taking on one of the most difficult schedules to close out the regular season.
To do that, the Bruins likely need some reinforcements to address roster holes. But this is where things can get tricky, because Boston technically never completed the retool started last spring. So, unless management can add some of the younger players available on the trade market, this team could go right back to mortgaging the future for a return to the playoffs.
The case for: The Capitals’ roster may not compete with the top teams in the league, but its combination of home-grown talent and savvy acquisitions has made for a deep team over the last couple of seasons. Management has done a really good job of identifying reclamation projects and potential fits, while Spencer Carbery and the coaching staff have maximized those players. The coaching has earned a lot of credit for helping this team operate above the sum of its parts. So if the Caps take a swing in the coming days, it’s a safe bet that the coaches can push the right buttons with any additions.
Advertisement
The return of Pierre-Luc Dubois was basically an internal addition for the Caps, since he only played six games before returning in early February. Since rejoining the team, he has earned six points and an average Game Score of 1.94, giving the second line a real boost.
The case against: As much as the Caps have embraced a deeper approach and have six players above the 40-point mark, having a 50-point scorer lead the way is less than ideal.
As much offense as Washington has created — at a rate of 3.03 xG per 60 at five-on-five, which ranks fifth in the league — it just hasn’t translated to the scoresheet enough. That extends to the power play as well; the Caps’ scoring chance generation hasn’t been perfect on the advantage, but even more glaring is a lack of finish.
The Caps’ team defense has been far from perfect, too, but the goaltending has done a lot to mask weaknesses.
Goal differential isn’t everything, but it’s generally a good temperature check of a team in the playoff mix. The Capitals rank eighth in the East with a plus-10 differential. Part of why that isn’t enough to move up the standings is that Washington has struggled in tight games, and Tuesday’s 3-2 loss to Utah was another example of that.
The fact that the Islanders keep cooking, with an 8-2-0 record in their last 10, and that the Penguins are also holding firm in the top-three in the Metro (with three games in hand), has only complicated things further for Washington.
The case for: The Blue Jackets have made a ton of progress over the last two years. Zach Werenski’s elite all-around game is at the heart of that, along with growth from players such as Kirill Marchenko and Adam Fantilli. Some solid veterans, such as midseason addition Mason Marchment and defensive ace Charlie Coyle, have added some support.
Advertisement
But the big story now, of course, is the new coach bump. The Blue Jackets have gone 12-2-1 since making a change behind the bench. Rick Bowness was brought in to help stabilize Columbus’s defensive zone play. So far, the team has improved its shot and scoring chance suppression over the last 15 games, compared to the first half of the season under Dean Evason, which is giving Jet Greaves more help.
All of that has contributed to a 30 percent jump in the Blue Jackets’ playoff odds over the last month. And management has the means to build on that, with cap space and trade assets at its disposal.
The case against: As much as Columbus has improved under Bowness, the team still has to work on defending leads. Last Saturday, the Blue Jackets blew a 2-0 lead to the Islanders and lost in overtime. While they took home two points on Monday, it was only after blowing a 4-0 lead to the Rangers.
The Blue Jackets may be one of the hottest teams in the league, but it still isn’t clear if they will be a buyer or a seller. Columbus could stand pat and hope that the new-coach bump is enough to jump into eighth place. But that may not be enough, despite improvements under Bowness. The Blue Jackets could use more two-way support, whether it’s reinforcements on defense or some finishing talent to kick the team’s scoring rate closer to last year’s levels.
But management could also take a more realistic approach with the long game in mind, and flip players such as Coyle, Marchment and Boone Jenner to load up for next season.
The case for: A team led by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard should be too strong to fall out of the top eight in the West. Besides, the Oilers are notorious for having rocky starts and turning it on when it matters most.
Edmonton’s offense is red hot, both at even strength and on the power play. The core is the driving force behind that, and Zach Hyman’s rebound has been clutch. Matt Savoie is finding his footing lately, and Kasperi Kapanen’s return has helped boost the supporting cast.
Advertisement
Paul Coffey’s return behind the bench should help stabilize the Oilers’ defense. So should the addition of Connor Murphy, who defends the rush well and brings an element of stability to the blue line.
The case against: The Oilers may be two points away from first in the Pacific, but this team is also two points out of the playoff picture entirely.
It shouldn’t be this difficult to build a contender around McDavid, Bouchard and Draisaitl. Instead, management tied up over $9 million in Tristan Jarry and Trent Frederic’s contracts, and already traded away its next two first-rounders.
The Jarry addition is the most damning because it comes with another two full seasons, which lines up with McDavid’s next contract. The Oilers’ chaotic defense has only put a brighter spotlight on an already volatile situation in net. Darnell Nurse continues to be unpredictable on the back end, while Mattias Ekholm’s game has declined.
So while Murphy was a solid addition, this team likely doesn’t have enough cap flexibility (or creativity from this front office) to fix all of its problems.
Instead, the Oilers have to keep betting on their big guns to outscore their problem. Sure, that worked on Tuesday night after Edmonton allowed two quick second-period goals to go down 4-2, and were ultimately saved by Draisaitl’s five-point night. But that isn’t a sound, sustainable strategy for success.
The case for: The Mammoth are dynamic offensively, led by a really exciting group of rising stars. This could legitimately be the fourth-best team in the Western Conference.
From Clayton Keller and Mikhail Sergachev to Dylan Guenther, JJ Peterka and Logan Cooley, there is a lot to be excited about in Utah. This group plays with a lot of pace and thrives in transition; since New Year’s, it’s added up to a 3.02 xG per 60 and 3.13 goals per 60, which both rank sixth in the league. The supporting cast is only improving on the fly, too. John Marino has been great on both ends of the ice this season. Daniil But was emerging into a two-way threat before getting sent back to Tucson.
Advertisement
Since moving to Utah, ownership has given management the room to take bold swings and go big game hunting. And that could be the key to solidifying its playoff standing, because this team has the assets to bring in a real difference-maker.
The team already used its deep asset pool to bring in MacKenzie Weegar, and still has the pieces to add a forward.
The case against: Of course, to take a big swing, the Mammoth have to win bidding wars. And that is obviously the unpredictable part of the trade deadline, because there are only so many top-end talents available. Utah could still afford to bolster its center depth, but that tends to be in high demand this time of year.
One other potential area of concern is Utah overworking Karel Vejmelka. While he has proven that he can do a lot of heavy lifting — he did start down the stretch last year, after all — it is a risky strategy that could lead to fatigue or injury. Vitek Vanecek has been fine as a backup, but could derail a lot of this team’s progress in a bigger role.
But maybe the biggest case against Utah is the fact that it’s wild card or bust — and that’s why the Mammoth are featured here, while the seventh-place Canadiens aren’t in the East. At this point, it’s next to impossible to break into the top three in the Central Division, with a 14-point gap separating the Wild and Mammoth. While Utah has a four-point lead on ninth place, there are still a few teams in the mix here.
The case for: Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer’s consistency has given Seattle a balanced crease to lean on; the two have each saved 20-plus goals above expected this season and rank in the top-15 in the league. The two have combined for a .903 save percentage that ranks third in the league, behind only the Wild and Avalanche.
The Kraken are getting timely saves and converting on their five-on-five chances. And, like the Mammoth, have the means to improve to add more layers below that. While the Kraken haven’t been buyers in years past, it’s no longer Ron Francis managing the team, either. Francis moved up the chain last spring, and Jason Botterill has taken over as GM. So this team could break the mold this year, and actually make some noise at the deadline to better its chances of disrupting the playoff picture.
Advertisement
The case against: While the Kraken have shown that a depth approach can work, with their 2023 playoff run, this team still lacks serious star power. Matty Beniers has the chops to become a top-end two-way center, but few others on this roster have that upside. Having Jordan Eberle’s 41-points lead the way is a red flag.
Seattle may have the assets and cap space to do some damage at the deadline, but there are only a handful of needle-movers available — and the Kraken don’t have a track record for making these splashy moves, either. Without outside help, this team may not be able to pull above break-even in xG down the stretch, or give the power play a boost. And that is concerning, considering the road ahead. The Kraken have one of the most difficult remaining schedules moving forward, while two teams in the mix for the same playoff spots have a much easier path.
The case for: Just when it seems like the Sharks have come back down to Earth, they respond with three straight wins.
And two of those wins were bangers — a 5-4 win over the Oilers and 7-5 against the Canadiens.
Those wins highlighted some of the best that the Sharks have to offer. Macklin Celebrini, at just 19, is having an MVP-caliber season, which is the reason this team is even in the conversation. Add in some growth from up-and-comers such as Will Smith, Collin Graf and Michael Misa, and the present and future are only getting brighter for the Sharks.
Now, the Sharks are only a few points back of the Oilers and Kraken with games in hand — and this team has one of the easiest schedule strengths moving forward.
The reality is, the Sharks aren’t ready to contend. But after a few seasons of savvy asset management, the team has some leeway to add a little more deadline support to 1) reward this team for exceeding expectations, and 2) push this young team to gain experience playing meaningful hockey in the spring.
Advertisement
The case against: Since the Sharks’ chances of doing any damage in the playoffs are slim, management’s focus has to stay on the big picture — even if it hurts this team’s postseason chances this year.
As fun as the Sharks are, the reality is that this team has way too many holes. The defense is far too leaky and is a key reason why San Jose is below the break-even mark in expected goals at five-on-five.
The Sharks are over-reliant on goaltending to make up for their lapses, too, and that is especially true in short-handed situations. As excellent as Yaroslav Askarov was earlier this season, his level seriously dropped off after a star-powered November. His December was disastrous, and his play over the last two months has been streaky and inconsistent.
Maybe this team just isn’t ready yet.
The case for: The Kings have the most favorable remaining schedule. The road ahead includes a lot of games against teams contending for these same wild-card seeds: the Mammoth, Predators, Kraken and Oilers. So there is a real opportunity for L.A. to do some damage and solidify its playoff chances.
With Artemi Panarin in the fold, the Kings have the potential to make some noise. As much as his scoring ticked down in New York this season, he has the dynamic skill set this team craves between his transition game and elite passing.
L.A. has the assets to keep adding around core players such as Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar, too.
On the back end, Brandt Clarke is progressing in more meaningful minutes. And while Darcy Kuemper’s return to play was rough, he has generally been above-average this season.
The case against: The Kings continue to look outmatched by the best in the West — and recent losses to the Golden Knights, Oilers, and Avalanche only highlighted that. Some of Ken Holland’s offseason signings are a driving force behind that. Take Monday’s matchup against the Avs, where the Kings were outshot 34-11 in Cody Ceci’s 22 five-on-five minutes, only earned a 17 percent xG rate, and were outscored 2-0.
Advertisement
The team’s aging defense hasn’t been sharp enough, especially in short-handed situations. The Kings have been giving up a lot of scoring chances on the penalty kill, and the goaltending hasn’t been able to contain that.
And the offense isn’t high-powered enough to negate that, either. It would be one thing if the Kings had both Panarin and a healthy Kevin Fiala in the lineup. That would seriously help an underwhelming power play, and a struggling five-on-five offense that has only mustered 1.86 goals per 60 in 22 games since New Year’s.
The Kings have lost ground in the playoff race over the last few months. A new coach bump may not be enough to turn that around. How much meaningful change can D.J. Smith make midseason? He doesn’t exactly have the best reputation for building an uptempo offense or a stout defense.
The case for: The Predators still have elite talent to build around at each position. Filip Forsberg’s goal scoring is back on the rise this year, with 27 goals in 61 games; he is on pace for a 36-goal campaign. Roman Josi has made an impact since returning to the lineup and boosted the Preds’ scoring by 0.46 goals per 60. While Juuse Saros’ play has been far from perfect this season, his play for Team Finland was a reminder of his ceiling.
Luke Evangelista has emerged as a real bright spot with his ability to set up scoring chances. Ryan O’Reilly is still a very good two-way center. And Steven Stamkos, after a tough start to the season (and his overall Preds’ tenure), has found his scoring touch again. And since those veterans aren’t racing out of Nashville, they can keep contributing to a turnaround back into the playoff picture.
The case against: A team can’t be eliminated from the playoffs a quarter into the season, but can dig a hole that is impossible to get out of. Nashville’s start was absolutely brutal again this year. On Dec. 1, they sat dead-last in the league with an 8-13-4 record and 20 points. As much as the Predators have turned things around, with a 19-13-4 record since, it may not be enough. Of all of the teams mentioned today, Nashville’s playoff odds are the lowest at just 16 percent, despite having one of the most favorable schedules ahead.
So even if veterans such as Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault opt against waiving their no-movement clauses, management is still likely to sell any other movable players. As much as this team needs whatever support it can get to stay in the playoff race, management has to keep the big picture in mind because the long-term trajectory is not very bright.
— Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn, and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers
Spot the pattern. Connect the terms
Find the hidden link between sports terms
Play today's puzzle
Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
Hockey News