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It’s time for a pinnacle of our point projection series from the Ottawa Senators, no scratch that, the entire NHL, Sens captain Brady Tkachuk. We have been bringing you a bunch of these player point predictions for the Sens and star players around the league, now it is time for Captain Tkachuk. Find out just how many goals and assists we think he will get, and then decide if you agree with us or not. So, let’s start banging and crashing the net.
As a whole, it is well known that Ottawa’s forward group struggles with offensive efficiency. In some sense, Brady kind of exemplifies this idea. However, he simultaneously makes you consider throwing offensive efficiency stats out the window. He’s a winner, and winners care about one stat above all others, playoff wins. But we digress.
As it stood, Brady finished 19th in the NHL last year, with 17.9 expected goals at 5v5. However, as a result of Tkachuk missing time with injury down the stretch, the rate at which he generated offence would have ranked him even somewhat higher compared against his peers league-wide.
Of the 18 players that finished above him in that metric, only Auston Matthews had less total ice-time than did Brady. In contrast, the idea of lacking efficiency, is despite Brady’s ability at generating at a high rate, his goals were lacking. His 11 goals at 5v5 would have him tied for 156th around the NHL (same as Dylan Cozens and Drake Batherson, go figure). Again, two more guys with more expected goals than actual goals, but less of a margin. Batherson had 12.6 expected 5v5 goals in 2024-25, while Cozens was at 12.4
One idea to consider, is that yes, 2025-26 will be different. No, no, we didn’t suddenly become Toronto Maple Leaf fans. We aren’t talking about the cup, we are talking about offensive efficiency, and more specifically, Brady Tkachuk’s ability to finish.
You see, the reason Tkachuk is ‘inefficient,’ is essentially because he is so hard to contain. He takes those down low pucks, dominates defenders, and takes the biscuit to the basket. But those chances, although high-danger, are understandably difficult to finish off in an efficient manner. Goalies stop a lot of those shots he is just firing at pads, often just hammering for rebounds. He does still score reasonably often, it is just he generates so many chances, it is hard to score well in the traditional sense of ‘efficiency.‘ The point is for Tkachuk, if he could start taking more time and sniping, connecting on all those cross-crease, one-timer passes, he could explode offensively, theoretically.
We think Tkachuk can increase his rate of goals in 2025-26. In the past three seasons, he has been 1.3 goals-per-60-minutes or better in each of those NHL campaigns. If he plays just his career average of 18:19 ice time for 75 games, at the rate of 1.4 g/60, that works out to just over 32 goals. We think he can maximize, GP, g/60, and be above that average ice time, and range between 35 and 40 goals.
Moreover, we are here to say that Brady has been trending in the right direction. We think with the added chemistry with Tim Stutzle, that has been brewing now for a couple years of them playing together, that they could really take off in 2025-26. Stutzle is looking to be shooting more, so that could help drive up Tkachuk’s average assist totals, as well as give him even more easy rebound tap-ins.
That’s not to mention all the other efficient, playmaker-type options head coach Travis Green has to throw out there with them. Batherson has had success in the past with Tkachuk, as has Claude Giroux. Playmakers do tend to be more ‘efficient‘ because they shoot less essentially. But hockey is a team game, and as we said previously, winning is ultimately all that matters. That is what makes Brady such a complete player, and that at the end of the day, his points aren’t super important.
Tkachuk’s four best seasons for assist totals have been his last four seasons. He’s been anywhere between 26 and 48. We think 40 is very achievable, if we set his expected range to the middle of that range, somewhere around 35-40.
Tkachuk’s over-under for points you ask, 64.5. If you have been following along, we had him around 35 goals, along with 40 assists. So, we are taking the over, only because he is a top-line player on a successful power play. There’s lot of reasons why he could be under, as the low end of 35 goals and 35 assists, might be lower if he misses any more than five-to-seven games.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
Levi Pike is an editor and writer here at Last Word on Hockey. He has lived all over Canada but grew up in Nanaimo, BC. Currently, he lives with his loving wife, three kids, and dog in the capital of the Easterly most province of Canada, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador. He’s passionate about hockey, in particular, the Ottawa Senators and statistics. He received both his Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in Statistics at Memorial University of Newfoundland.
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Oct 21, 2025
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