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By Chris Wassel in NHL Hockey
Published:
The 4 Nations Face-Off ships down to Boston for the second half of the tournament starting on Monday night. The Sweden-USA contest starts at 8:00 PM ET with live coverage on TNT and MAX.
The tournament provides some interesting wrinkles. For one, the Americans are already slated to play in the Final on Thursday night. Now, who do they face? At press time, three teams are tied with two points (Canada, Finland, and Sweden). For Sweden, it is simple. They need a win in regulation and a Canada-Finland game which heads into overtime. Sweden is eliminated otherwise.
The oddsmakers still favor the Americans on Monday:
At almost -200 odds (9/1), the implied probability for the Americans comes in at 66.44% to win.
If you’re looking for what we thought about Canada versus Finland, check out our expert analysis here.
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For one, there are some twists. Do expect Matthew Tkachuk to rest after he did not play the final almost 13 minutes on Saturday night against Canada. Tkachuk clearly limped around during the postgame and will play on Thursday night. The other question centers around Connor Hellebuyck. Does the Team USA coaching staff keep him in a rhythm? He had been expected to start but Team USA had other plans. See below.
Out of all the goaltenders in this tournament, Hellebuyck was the only goaltender to have a positive goals saved above expected at +4.04. It is something given how his tournament started against Finland.
Oettinger in goal. Sanderson in as well on D. McAvoy coming out.
It is why even with “players being rested”, the Americans stand an excellent chance of going undefeated in the round robin portion of the tournament. For as good as Sweden is, the Americans can bottle up things defensively then counter on offense. Players like Matt Boldy, Dylan Larkin, and Brady Tkachuk have played well in this event. It has been a team effort. The shift to home ice should only embolden the Americans.
It is strange to see NHL foes on the same team. However, the closeness and intensity favor a squad like the United States even when they are truly playing to the home crowd. Anyway, the Americans want to place their exclamation point here and keep things rolling heading into Thursday.
Yes, Sweden vs USA needs a few more predictions. Now, we mentioned younger players could get more of an opportunity. Also, players like Dylan Larkin and Matt Boldy could be a matchup nightmare against Sweden. Pundits argued that the Swedes are a little thin defensively heading into this tournament.
It will be fun to see the ice time of certain players and especially who winds up on the man advantage. One player not to underestimate is Jake Guentzel. He seems to thrive in these best-on-best situations. This is a player who has flourished alongside Sidney Crosby, Nikita Kucherov, and more.
Jake Guentzel🇺🇸 leads the tournament in goals with 3. Here's a look at the five players with seven or more scoring chances through 2 games each… pic.twitter.com/NE3JmEa0Sp
Again, depth and balance are why the Americans are in this position. Team USA starts slow sometimes and builds their way up. It is a squad that capitalizes on mistakes and yes can pot an empty netter or two.
Still, can the Americans score some goals with less on the line Monday? If anything, the United States might be able to turn Sweden’s urgency against them.
Players like Jake Guentzel and perhaps Jack Hughes and Auston Matthews are worth looks for different reasons. Do we finally see some more offensive contributions from players like Hughes and Matthews?
More Sweden vs USA Picks:
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Sports Writer
A journalist veteran for over two decades, Chris has taught the gamut of fantasy hockey sports online from injuries to news to prospects, and more. He has bet on several sports and written sports betting articles about the NBA, MLB, NCAA football, the NFL, and NHL for USA Today.
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