Utah has gotten solid goaltending out of Karel Vejmelka, which will serve it well against a tired Stars squad tonight at the Delta Center.
NHL
The Utah Hockey Club hosts the Dallas Stars at the Delta Center on Monday, December 2, and it’s a tough schedule spot for the visitors.
Dallas will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back set with travel for the third time in four nights. As a result, our top Stars vs. Utah Hockey Club predictions expect the home squad to pull off the upset in a low-scoring game.
Read on for our NHL picks ahead of tonight’s 9 p.m. ET puck drop.
My best bet
Utah moneyline (+120 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Utah Hockey Club has received excellent goaltending from Karel Vejmelka while also showing improved 5-on-5 play.
In fact, Utah has been better than the Dallas Stars in several telling 5-on-5 metrics.
Additionally, Dallas is likely to turn to backup Casey DeSmith after No. 1 Jake Oettinger started Sunday against the Winnipeg Jets. DeSmith sports a discouraging .891 save percentage with -0.45 goals saved above average per 60 minutes, while Vejmelka ranks sixth among regular goalies with a .917 save percentage and 0.50 GSAA/60.
Vejmelka has surrendered two goals or fewer in six of 12 starts and only four or more twice, too.
With the Stars playing the second leg of a back-to-back set with travel and sporting a ho-hum 5-6 road record, this is a sneaky spot to take a flier on the home underdog tonight.
Utah moneyline
Under 6.5
Mikhail Sergachev Under 0.5 points
Both Dallas and Utah have trended to the Under, and the Stars are allowing the fourth-fewest goals per game, while the Club has a rolling goalie between the pipes.
Vejmelka ranks sixth among regular goalies with a .917 save percentage and 0.50 GSAA/60, and goals will be few and far between with Dallas playing its second game in consecutive nights and looking to pay extra attention to defensive detail in front of a backup.
This is also a good spot to fade Utah defenseman Mikhail Sergachev.
He’s been on the ice for 12 goals but just 5.56 expected goals with an unsustainably high 20.7 team shooting percentage in the past five games. Look for statistical correction to kick in against the stingy Dallas defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
DeSmith has lost each of his past three starts, including consecutive games as a favorite (-218 against the Chicago Blackhawks and -426 against the Anaheim Ducks). Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Hockey Club.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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