Sartori's prediction: With the series shifting to Denver, the Avalanche will re-take the series lead by toppling the Stars by at least two goals.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
The series heads to Ball Arena after the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche split the first two games in Big D.
My Stars vs. Avalanche predictions expect Colorado to impress in its first playoff game on home ice this postseason.
Read on for my NHL picks for Wednesday, April 23.
Analytically, the Colorado Avalanche were the superior team this season. Although the Dallas Stars finished with a better record, Colorado ranked higher in expected goals for percentage (xGF%).
The Avs have won three of the past four meetings between these two teams, a trend I expect to continue tonight.
My Stars pick: Avalanche -1.5 (+140 at BET99)
While Colorado was analytically the better team this season, there’s an even bigger reason to back the Avs in Game 3: they return to Ball Arena, where visiting teams have struggled mightily at elevation.
The Avalanche have won 12 of their past 15 games on home ice, with 10 of those wins coming by at least a two-goal margin. Meanwhile, the Stars are just 5-7 over their past 12 road games, with most of those losses also coming by two or more goals.
Colorado also possesses the goaltending advantage with Mackenzie Blackwood slated to start. Since being traded to the Avalanche this season, Blackwood is 22-12-3 with a .913 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against average.
He also owns a .913 save percentage over his past six starts against Dallas.
Meanwhile, the Stars will start goaltender Jake Oettinger, who has posted a .892 save percentage over his past six starts against Colorado, and hasn’t looked as sharp down the stretch as he did earlier in the season.
Avalanche -1.5
Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal
Cale Makar Over 0.5 assists
If Colorado is to win by two or more goals, it will need continued offensive production. Forward Nathan MacKinnon has scored off a Cale Makar assist in Games 1 and 2, and this connection could strike again in Game 3.
Neither player needs much of an introduction. Both are among the best in the world, and it doesn’t take much for Makar to set up MacKinnon.
They are an especially lethal combination on the power play, which is how they’ve connected in each of the first two games in this series.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds courtesy of BET99
Colorado has won 12 of its past 15 home games, with 10 of those 12 wins coming by at least a two-goal margin. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Avalanche.
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Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.
Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 – $500 per play.
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