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By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
The Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche are gearing up for Game 3 of their Western Conference Semifinals series on Saturday, May 11, 2024, at 10:00 PM ET. This matchup will take place at Ball Arena in Denver and will be broadcast on TNT.
Currently, the Avalanche hold the advantage as favorites with a moneyline of -133, while the Stars are pegged as underdogs at +115. The game’s over/under is set at 6.5 goals
Here’s our Stars vs Avalanche prediction for Game 3, along with odds and player props to bet.
After dropping the first two games at home in Dallas, the series shifts to Denver for Game 3, where Colorado posted the best home mark in the NHL at 31-9-1 this year and already won the two home games in these playoffs.
The Stars have already proven their ability to compete on the road by winning a game away from home against the Vegas Golden Knights in the first round, which tied the series. However, despite Dallas’ impressive performance on the road, I believe that the Avalanche will win Game 3 at home and take a 2-1 series lead.
The high altitude in Denver can be challenging for visiting teams, especially in the playoffs when the intensity ramps up. The Avalanche are comfortable playing in these conditions and feed off the energy of their passionate home crowd.
City of Denver is ready for gameday!#GoAvsGo | #ALLIN pic.twitter.com/oQ6k4vavB2
— x – Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) May 11, 2024
The Avalanche lead all playoff teams with 5.0 goals per game and are loaded with elite offensive talent in Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar. The Avs have the ability to break open a game at any moment with their speed and skill.
Colorado is definitely off to bad starts in both games, but they’ve shown this unbelievable ability to come back and make in-game adjustments. Jared Bednar will probably have the team more ready not to be put in that early hole in Game 3.
Jared Bednar knows the three headed monster is going to attack tonight. No chance they are held pointless again, i expect a dominant game from all three.pic.twitter.com/9l723qlMKW
— Avalanche Forever (@citchmook) May 11, 2024
The Avalanche power play has been lethal during the postseason, clicking at 38.1%. This is where Dallas could be in trouble if they continue to take penalties. Colorado has the slight advantage in the penalty kill: 72.7% to 70.6% for Dallas.
While neither Alexandar Georgiev nor Jake Oettinger has been particularly sharp in this series, Georgiev’s regular season numbers at home (21-4-1, 2.38 GAA, .925 SV%) suggest he could be due for a bounce-back performance in the friendly confines of Ball Arena.
Colorado’s overall talent, home-ice advantage, and ability to step up their play when it counts the most should be enough to will them to a win here in Game 3. We’re backing the Avs on the moneyline as they aim to deliver another home win for their passionate fans.
The market favorite to win this contest is the Avalanche, with a moneyline of -133. This means that if one bets $133 on Colorado to win and Colorado does win, the gambler will net a profit of $100. Implied probability regarding an Avalanche win stands at 57.1%.
The underdog Stars bring a line of +115 on the moneyline, so a $100 wager on Dallas would in theory net $115 in profit if they were to win the game. The implied probability of a Stars win stands at 46.5%.
A 6.5-goal over/under indicates that oddsmakers expect the game to be high-scoring, quite predictably given the offensive firepower between the two teams.
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Odds as of May 11, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best sports gambling apps for the NHL Playoffs.
DraftKings is offering a wide array of player props for this game, with Nathan MacKinnon sporting the best odds to find the back of the net at -110.
Here are a couple of player props to consider for this game:
Nathan MacKinnon (COL) Over 1.5 Points He’s hit the scoresheet in all but one of his seven playoff games, so Nate is due following back-to-back goose eggs in Game 2.
Joe Pavelski (DAL) Anytime Goal Scorer: Has been blanked so far in the playoffs but has had some recent success against the Avalanche, scoring nine goals in his last 12 games played vs. the Avs.
Cale Makar (COL) Over 0.5 Goals: Makar is one of the best offensive defensemen in the league right now and he has already notched three goals through these playoffs.
There are no significant injuries to report for either team heading into Game 3.
Avalanche forward Jonathan Drouin has been out since the end of the regular season because of a lower-body injury but has been practicing with the team and could return at some point in the series.
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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