NHL
After a necessary Cup Checklist refresh, it’s time to see how it applies to this year’s 16 playoff teams. 
For those who need a quick reminder, the Cup Checklist is a guide based on the rosters of Stanley Cup champions from the last 15 years. It’s a five-point threshold based on the average player from those rosters, separated by role. There are 13 roles separated into three cores. Here’s what that looks like.

Let’s dive in, with the 16 teams separated into five tiers based on how many boxes they tick on the Cup Checklist.
All values are normalized to six goals per win to account for changing scoring environments over the last 15 years. Teams are sorted and separated based on the number of players ranked solid or above, ideal or above, and total Cup Checklist value.

What works
No team checks more boxes than the Lightning, who hit the “solid” mark in all but three instances. Just as impressive is that they hit “ideal” targets more than half the time.
That’s mostly thanks to a ridiculously stacked forward group led by Nikita Kucherov, who is somehow even better than the 2020 and 2021 versions of himself. This Kucherov is a luxury as a franchise forward, he’s been that good. Brayden Point remains by his side, but it’s the addition of Jake Guentzel and the emergence of Brandon Hagel that really takes things up a notch. Between Guentzel and Point, the Lightning have the league’s better third-scorer option, while Hagel’s two-way game is seriously special. Add Anthony Cirelli’s massive impact at both ends of the ice and the Lightning have the best quintet of forwards in hockey. With the additions of Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde, depth behind them isn’t a problem either.
Advertisement
Defensively, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak are about as good as it gets as a shutdown pair, allowing Victor Hedman to keep doing his thing as the No. 1. They help make life easy for Andrei Vasilevskiy who looks like his vintage self this season. 
The Lightning are loaded where it counts.
What doesn’t
Tampa Bay’s one exception to the rule is the lack of a scoring defenseman after Hedman. That was the trade-off the Lightning made when they shipped off Mikhail Sergachev in order to reacquire McDonagh. With how potent this team’s forward group is, it made sense to prioritize the defense group in this way. Still, it’s a void not capably filled by either Darren Raddysh or J.J. Moser.
On top of that, there’s also the question of Victor Hedman’s defensive game. It’s bounced back from years past now that he’s back to a secondary matchup role, but still not enough to be above average. That’s a concern given the team’s depth defenders aren’t strong in that regard either. As good as McDonagh and Cernak are, they may not have the necessary defensive support around them. Hedman being his vintage self without the puck is crucial to the Lightning going deep in a tough division.

What works
No team enters the playoffs without one ‘exception to the rule’ but Florida is close if you average out Gustav Forsling’s two boxes. That bodes well for their hopes of going back-to-back. Hockey is a strong link game and it pays to have a high quantity of those strong links. Mission accomplished for Florida.
Between Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, the Panthers might have the best big three in hockey. And their forward depth after that is stupid good. Brad Marchand, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett are a nice combo in the top six. On the third line, the combination of Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen offers a lot of defensive peace of mind.
Advertisement
With Sergei Bobrosvky looking solid, the Panthers look like they’ll be very tough to knock off.
What doesn’t
If we have to nitpick, it’s probably with Florida’s top four — which already sounds silly given who occupies it. 
Mainly, the issue is the team’s defensive game after Forsling. Aaron Ekblad has seen a real drop-off there and while Mikkola is a rock, his Defensive Rating does pale in comparison to the other shutdown defenders from years past. Last year that role went to Ekblad as Brandon Montour filled the scoring defenseman role. With Ekblad regressing, Mikkola shifts up where he doesn’t quite stack up. Even as a ‘defensive defenseman,’ Ekblad’s game doesn’t stack up to past players, though he at least makes up for it with his offense.
The Panthers can probably get away with that with offense being the team’s source of strength this year. But it does mean Florida will only have two real defensive needle-movers in the top four this year. Will that be enough against the offensive firepower in Tampa Bay and Toronto?

What works
The Stars have some serious firepower. While Jason Robertson is only passable as a franchise guy, the rest of the forward group stacks up extremely well offensively. Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Mason Marchment and Mikael Granlund? That’s as deep as it gets. Combine that with having Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley bringing the puck up ice and joining the attack and the Stars’ offense will feel relentless.
Between Heiskanen, Harley and Esa Lindell, the Stars have the defensive might on the back end to take things to another level. With Jake Oettinger’s stellar goaltending, Dallas looks well-situated to go all the way this season when healthy.
What doesn’t
The Stars haven’t looked right without Heiskanen and while he’s likely to return during the first round, the Stars will have to survive in the meantime. Their defensive depth is a big problem and it shows with a glaring red box in the depth core. Having Ilya Lyubushkin or Cody Ceci or Matt Dumba as the team’s options for a No. 4 is truly harrowing.
Advertisement
Defense is also an issue with the forward group, where Hintz doesn’t appear to be a particularly adequate shutdown forward. He once flashed that skill set in the past, but his defensive numbers lately haven’t agreed with that reputation. The Stars don’t have a depth forward that can offer support defensively either. Only six of Dallas’ forwards grade out above average defensively and two of them are fourth-liners.
The Stars make up for that offensively, but there’s a chance the team is a bit too one-dimensional in that vein. Without Heiskanen to start, they’ll need to drastically outscore defensive deficiencies even further. Compared to other contenders, there may be too many exceptions to the rule here.

What works
Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are still a luxury duo — even if the former forgot how to score this year. The two continue to be among the game’s best forwards, capable of scoring 100 points while not sacrificing any defense in return. That’s hard to do and is Toronto’s biggest advantage. Having William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies around that duo makes for an extremely strong top end offensively with some defensive bite to go along with it.
This season, the back end looks significantly beefed up defensively thanks to the additions of Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo. Both make the Leafs a lot tougher to score on. Not more than Anthony Stolarz, though, who has been an absolute revelation. The Leafs have never entered a playoff in this era with goaltending as strong as what they have now. Maybe that’s finally the difference.
What doesn’t
The Leafs face the same two major problems they always do: they do not have a franchise defenseman and their depth is fairly inadequate.
Jake McCabe is a great defenseman and is perfectly acceptable without the puck to be a team’s top guy. But offensively and overall, he’s lacking. His lack of offense is a symptom of the entire blue line, where Morgan Rielly also doesn’t grade out that well next to past scoring defensemen on Cup teams. If the Leafs win, they’ll be the exception to the rule: winning it all with a top-four-by-committee approach. No true No. 1.
On top of that, the team’s depth after the team’s top five forwards takes a steep nosedive. Bobby McMann once looked passable as the sixth option, but has fallen into a slump. After him the offensive options only get worse. If Matthews and co. at the top get cold — as they often do in the playoffs — the Leafs don’t seem to have the depth scoring to cover.
Advertisement

What works
Connor Hellebuyck is the luxury of all luxuries. If he’s dialed in, the Jets can beat anyone.
What sets this version of the Jets apart though is that it’s not just Hellebuyck. Josh Morrissey is a perfect franchise defenseman, the team’s depth looks really strong and Dylan Samberg has stepped up as a shutdown force. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele have also elevated their games considerably this season, finally looking like the kind of one-two punch a team can win with. Add solid offensive efforts from Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers, and the Jets look poised to go deep.
What doesn’t
Yes, Adam Lowry is the team’s actual shutdown forward. But it’s not ideal that the team doesn’t have someone worthy of that role in the top six. The team’s stars are better, no question (though still only ‘passable’), but it would be very helpful to have a defensively capable player at the top of the lineup. Vilardi is an awkward fit there. In the same vein, Cole Perfetti as the team’s fifth-best offensive option is not ideal either. Those are two problems a solid second-line center could fix in one fell swoop and that remains Winnipeg’s biggest hole.
On the back end, the team may not have enough offensive punch after Morrissey. Neal Pionk is better than his biggest detractors argue online, but as an offensive No. 2/3 he still comes in below what a Cup winner usually offers. He’s the weakest link in the team’s top four.

What works
If you were surprised to see the Kings this high, that makes two of us. But having 40 percent of the Cup Checklist filled by players that are “ideal” or better is pretty eye-opening. Only the Lightning and Panthers have more.
Mostly, that stems from the Kings being a defensive powerhouse. Drew Doughty, Mikey Anderson and Vladislav Gavrikov is an embarrassment of defensive riches. Same goes for Trevor Moore and Phillip Danault’s defensive depth game, not to mention the defensive combo of Quinton Byfield and Anze Kopitar.  The Kings are built to shut teams down.
What makes the Kings extra intriguing this year, though, is the goalie behind all of that. Darcy Kuemper has been lights-out over the last month or so and that makes the team an even bigger defensive force. Their plus-37 Defensive Rating is right on par with the 2012 and 2014 champions.
Advertisement
This franchise has a blueprint they already won with a decade ago. They’re following it to a tee this season.
What doesn’t
One of the reasons to be surprised is because there are still major questions about whether the Kings have the offense to hang with the best of the West. Their two best players are Byfield and Adrian Kempe, and with all due respect to those two great players, they’re a shade below what’s expected of Cup champions. Byfield is the wild card there and looks to be ready to take over as The Guy, but that still feels like it’s a year away. Elevating to that level in these playoffs though would be a game-changer — the kind that could net the Kings the Cup.
Offense from the blue line is another sore spot. That’s brought about by the team’s top defender, Doughty, not measuring up offensively anymore and the team’s prized prospect, Brandt Clarke, being mostly untrustworthy without the puck to play in the top four. The Kings are elite defensively, but can they score enough when it matters?

What works
Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are the top forward and defenseman duo in the league and for Colorado, everything flows after that. It allows an easier time for the Avalanche to fill spots around them, though a lot of spots are filled by players strong in their own right.
Valeri Nichushkin, Brock Nelson and Logan O’Connor fill out the depth nicely and the imminent return of Gabriel Landeskog could create a major spark. While no one knows what Landeskog can do after so much time off, if he can just be average as he’s penciled in here, he would make for a very valuable depth forward. At his best, he was obviously much more than that, which would be a big plus. 
On defense, Devon Toews is a strong shutdown force next to Makar. In net, Mackenzie Blackwood was a savvy addition who’s thrived in Colorado. His presence could be the difference in a series.
What doesn’t
I’ve been vocal in the past about Colorado’s defensive depth and this speaks to why. I don’t think Samuel Girard offers enough offensive spark behind Makar and I’m not sure Josh Manson still has the defensive juice behind Toews. In terms of support, that pair is lacking and has earned a 38 percent goal rate this season. That’s far from ideal and a major sore spot in the lineup.
Advertisement
The absence of Mikko Rantanen is also evident. As great as Martin Necas has filled in offensively, he’s no Rantanen. His play-driving has been a pleasant surprise with the Avalanche as his skill set fits the team’s system better, but his 28 points in 30 games with Colorado does show what the team has lost production-wise compared to Rantanen’s 64 in 49. In that vein, the drop-off after MacKinnon to the team’s next best weapon is fairly sizeable. MacKinnon is one of the best players in the league, but the lack of a premier sidekick does hurt Colorado a little. That’s felt on the defensive side of things as well with Artturi Lehkonen falling just shy of expectations as a shutdown forward.

What works
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard. Next question.
What doesn’t
Mattias Ekholm likely being out for the season is a big blow, which pushed the Oilers down a tier. The Oilers are deep enough defensively after acquiring Jake Walman that the back end should still be a source of strength, just not to the degree it once was. Ekholm is a much better shutdown option than Darnell Nurse, who would have been a luxury as the team’s No. 3. As the No. 2 and top defensive option, Nurse might be overwhelmed. As much as I appreciate Brett Kulak’s defensive game, he’s not an ideal No. 4 on a contender.
The biggest issue, though, remains between the pipes. The model holds Stuart Skinner in higher regard than it should thanks to being a strong netminder during the 2022-23 and 2023-24 regular seasons. But he took a major step back this year and has had his share of playoff troubles. Losing a key defensive piece in front of Skinner doesn’t help either.
If everyone plays their part — and that includes Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins bouncing back to their expected rates here, which is no guarantee — the Oilers still have a strong enough roster. The offensive brilliance of McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard gives Edmonton a lot of leeway elsewhere and they do check a lot of boxes, even if it’s to the bare minimum threshold.
But this team cut too many corners last summer and it shows. Without Ekholm the Oilers look vulnerable. They may not have the overall depth to survive a blow that big.

What works
While no team checks every box, Vegas is right there with Florida. William Karlsson is good enough defensively to make up for lesser offensive contributions. This is a really strong team with few, if any, holes where it matters. 
Shea Theodore is the team’s best defenseman and leads a strong top four of Noah Hanifin, Alex Pietrangelo (whose offense makes up for weaker defense in his category) and Brayden McNabb. The emergence of Pavel Dorofeyev has been a blessing as he’s more than adequately replaced Jonathan Marchessault’s scoring. There’s strong forward depth behind him with Ivan Barbashev, Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith.
Advertisement
Vegas looks ready for another championship.
What doesn’t
With only two “ideal” checkmarks, Vegas falls way off the mark from the team’s above. Vegas is one of five teams who hit the “ideal” mark 13 percent or less — and the other four are in the bottom tier. Everyone in the top three tiers has at least two more ideal fits and many have more.
So while it’s nice that Vegas has checked a lot of boxes, other contenders have done so more emphatically. If hockey is a strong-link game, the other contenders have stronger links than Vegas and that could simply be the difference. 
That means what it’ll take to win is everyone elevating their game and going the extra mile. That’s what Vegas got out of its roster in 2023, and knowing that may be enough to offer hope. It won’t be easy to pull off again, but this team does know how to win.

What works
Defensively, the Hurricanes have a one-two punch that’s tough to beat. Jaccob Slavin is one of the league’s best and grades out really well next to other franchise defenders. Up front, Seth Jarvis looks like the next Mark Stone and already looks like Carolina’s most valuable player. Further down the lineup, both Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook continue to be premier shutdown forces making the Hurricanes a tough team to score on. The Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov duo is pretty solid too.
Offensively, Shayne Gostisbehere brings a lot of juice from the backend while Logan Stankoven is fine as a depth player for now. It should also be noted that there are a lot of players not included in the Cup Checklist and they matter too. L0oking at that group alone, Carolina is among the strongest of any postseason team.
What doesn’t
Same as always: a lack of stars. Mikko Rantanen works as a star forward. Martin Necas would too. Andrei Svechnikov has not elevated his offensive game to that level yet and currently looks miscast. Maybe he’ll get there one day, just not today.
Advertisement
With Rantanen or Necas around, Svechnikov would fit better as a scoring forward, Jackson Blake would fit better as a support forward and Jordan Martinook would fit better as a depth forward. Instead, the offensive expectations become potentially more than those players can handle and it’s not like they have an elite offensive duo to lean on in Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis either.  With Slavin not being an offensively-minded player either, it becomes a question of whether this team has the offensive game-breakers to go the distance.
The usual.

What works
Kirill Kaprizov is a superstar. What he showed in the season’s first half as a potential MVP favourite only confirmed that and he’s an ideal franchise forward. That says a lot. Joel Eriksson Ek is a sturdy shudown forward while Jonas Brodin offers the same piece of mind on the backend. As mild as the Wild have been this season, it’s important to remember how much of the season they played without those three core pieces. They’re a different team with those guys in the lineup.
Down the line, Marcus Foligno has bounced back nicely this season and is back to being a key defensive piece. Couple that with the emergence of Marco Rossi and Minnesota’s forward depth looks a lot better than expected at the start of the season.
What doesn’t
The Wild do not have enough offense from the blue line. Spurgeon isn’t built that way as the team’s best defenseman and Brock Faber — whose numbers have really fallen off in the second half — looks over-extended in that role as well. This is a big part of what makes the Wild such an offensively anemic hockey team. Can Zeev Buium, who scored 48 points in 41 games in college, be the answer to that problem? It may be unfair to put those expectations on someone who was in an Econ 101 class last week, but Buium looks pretty special. For the Wild to go far this season, he’ll need to be that right out of the gate. Considering he was scratched in their final game, though, Wild fans shouldn’t hold their breath.
Minnesota’s other Achilles’ heel is in net. Filip Gustavsson was a great story to start, but his game has faltered since and has been propped up by a strong defense in front of him. By GSAx he ranked 25th this season. Couple with his disasturous 2023-24 season and the model views him as the weakest goalie at the playoffs. The only Cup winner he surpasses over the last 15 seasons is Antti Niemi in 2010. The Wild are strong enough to make him look good, but it comes at an offensive cost. That lack of balance may be what keeps them from going far.

What works
Whatever they’ve done this season.
While the projected values above may not look great, they’re born of uncertainty. There have been a lot of players having breakthrough or bounce-back years — the Capitals only need that to continue for 25 more games. 
Here’s the list of just 2024-25 ratings per 82 games for relevant players, and how that would grade out by the Cup Checklist.
Advertisement
Pierre-Luc Dubois: +10.7/+3.4/+14.1 — Passable
Alex Ovechkin: +14.2 Off. Rtg — Ideal
John Carlson: +12.0/+1.3/+13.3 — Solid
Tom Wilson: +10.0/+2.0/+12.0 — Solid
Jakob Chychrun: +6.2 Off. Rtg — Ideal
Aliaksei Protas: +9.9/+1.9/+11.8 — Luxury
Connor McMichael: +8.5 Off. Rtg — Luxury
That’s a lot of players who the model believes have played well enough to move up a tier (or two) if they can keep it up. And that doesn’t even include Logan Thompson, who was one of the league’s best goalies this season.
Beyond that, the support and depth cores look strong enough as is. The Capitals’ retool has been wildly successful and it shows most there. That group of eight is championship-caliber — with or without regression.
What doesn’t
It’s the top five where the biggest questions lie, namely with the most important forwards.
Can Dubois and Wilson really be the focal point of a championship team? There is zero question that they’ve been good enough this year to be one of the league’s very best shutdown lines. The question is whether it continues going forward given their lack of history playing at such a high level. Same goes for Ovechkin’s superhuman scoring at his age and Carlson’s late-career renaissance.
It’s a question of sustainability which fans understandably hate, but that doesn’t make it any less fair. It’s more than possible the model is wrong here and is too slow to pick up on Washington’s dominant shutdown duo and the vintage play of the team’s veterans. But its stubbornness should at least create pause now that the top guys are about to match up against the league’s absolute best teams. 
Washington has the depth to mitigate that, but it is very rare for a Stanley Cup-winning team’s core group to grade out this low. At the very least, the team’s top guys are passable. Maybe that’s enough.

What works
Linus Ullmark was a fantastic get for the Senators and proved his worth in the second half. Combine that with a shutdown pair of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub and Ottawa’s defensive backbone looks strong. The depth core — augmented by the acquisition of Dylan Cozens — looks solid, and Thomas Chabot has been a great offensive piece from the backend.
Advertisement
What doesn’t
This is Ottawa’s first year making the playoffs in this era so there’s still plenty of time for the Senators to get where they need to. The main concern at the moment is whether the top end has enough offensive juice — especially after a down year for Brady Tkachuk. He and Tim Stützle are passable, but even then they’re only a big two. Most Cup contenders have a big three or even four up front. Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto and Dylan Cozens don’t inspire enough confidence offensively at the moment to be named in the same breath as Tkachuk and Stützle. Not on a serious contender.
In order for Ottawa to take the next step, Tkachuk and Stützle need to elevate a little bit more, but they also need immediate help behind them.

What works
It’s difficult to fully judge the Devils without Jack Hughes, but it is promising that the team’s elite core still looks capable. Nico Hischier sliding in seamlessly as a franchise forward is not something many teams can boast and is one reason why there’s so much optimism surrounding New Jersey’s future. Jesper Bratt is a star, Dougie Hamilton remains an offensive force, Timo Meier drives play, and Jacob Markstrom is a strong starter. The top of the lineup still looks great.
Some other pieces also standout, namely Johnathan Kovaecevic as a secondary defensive driver and newcomer Cody Glass as a defensive depth forward.
What doesn’t
With Hughes, a lot of things fall into place more naturally. He’d grade out as an ideal franchise forward while Hischier would be an ideal shutdown forward. That would push Timo Meier, Stefan Noesen and Dawson Mercer down — all into more appropriate spots on the team.
Unfortunately, Hughes isn’t playing which means a weak support core that leaves the team’s immediate depth wanting. Noesen is not a good enough scorer to be the team’s fourth option and Mercer hasn’t shown enough offensively yet to be a difference-maker. It’s not good enough. The Devils are one of just two teams without an ‘ideal’ fit somewhere on the list.
There is also the question of Hamilton’s defense. His minus-3.1 Defensive Rating would be the worst of any No. 1 defender to win the Cup. That’s a problem that needs to be addressed.
Advertisement

What works
The biggest standout under Jim Montgomery has been the team’s improved defensive game and that shows with Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Colton Parayko being sources of defensive strength. Jordan Binnington remains a solid goaltender as well. Young players like Jimmy Snuggerud and Zachary Bolduc beef up the team’s depth. There are a lot of solid pieces here, most of whom are young enough to offer the Blues a bright future.
What doesn’t
Almost every piece is not ‘great enough’ and that’s the concern with this team’s ceiling — especially offensively. Robert Thomas, with the way he’s played over the last month, carries high hopes, but the team needs much more around him. 
Can Jordan Kyrou take his game up a notch? Can Pavel Buchnevich bounce back? Can Holloway keep up his torrid pace under Montgomery (and return in time from injury)? Can Snuggerud (or Dalibor Dvorsky) be legitimate difference-makers? Can Broberg emerge as capable enough offensively to become a true No. 1? 
Those are the questions facing the Blues now and going forward. The talent is there for this team to answer them in the playoffs, but for now there’s just a bit too much uncertainty. At the very least, though, the fact they have actual players that have the potential to answer those questions is a big step up from where the team was to start the season. With how they’ve played under Montgomery, it wouldn’t be a shock to see some exceptions prove otherwise in the postseason.

What works
Lane Hutson is a game-changer already. He’s an offensively solid franchise defenseman on a Cup contender — an incredible feat for a rookie. His defensive game has improved, but is still questionable overall. Solving that is the next step in his progress.
The Canadiens have a lot of passable pieces throughout and in net, Sam Montembeault is more than good enough to steal games.
What doesn’t
Montreal wasn’t expected to make it this far; to do so is already a success. It should be no surprise the Canadiens are the weakest team in the playoffs and it shows by how many exceptions would have to be made to view them as a true contender. Most of those exceptions come on the defensive side of things: Hutson as a franchise defenseman, Guhle as a shutdown defender, and the lack of a positive defensive forward outside of Nick Suzuki. Even Suzuki, as good as he’s been over the last couple of months, falls just shy of what’s needed as a team’s No. 1 forward.
Advertisement
Having said that — there is a clear path to moving up. That starts with Ivan Demidov (whose projections here are based on his superb KHL totals) becoming a franchise forward. If that happens while Hutson’s defensive game matures, everything falls into place. Nick Suzuki would be an ideal shutdown forward, while Juraj Slafkovsky would face less pressure with an expectation as a scoring forward. 
The Canadiens are very green and there’s a lot of work to do, but the pieces are there.
Data via Evolving Hockey and Hockey Stat Cards
(Top photo of Aleksander Barkov against the Tampa Bay Lightning: Joel Auerbach / Getty Images)
Dom Luszczyszyn is a national NHL writer for The Athletic who writes primarily about hockey analytics and new ways of looking at the game. Previously, he’s worked at The Hockey News, The Nation Network and Hockey Graphs. Follow Dom on Twitter @domluszczyszyn

source