NHL
Did Mitch Marner and John Tavares play their last games in Toronto Maple Leafs sweaters? Will another team be able to land Nikolaj Ehlers? Is Mikael Granlund a pending free agent worth investing in?
With 28 of 32 NHL teams officially on the outside of the playoff picture, most of the league is already in offseason mode. And this offseason has a lot of potential, with the salary cap jumping from $88 million to $95.5 million on July 1 — the biggest year-to-year increase since the salary cap was introduced in 2005.
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The increasing cap can be looked at in two ways. It buys a team that is up against it more breathing room — and it gives general managers more money to spend. The latter adds some intrigue to free agency.
But it’s not as simple as opening up the checkbooks to any free agent this summer. Teams have to contemplate whether this is the summer to swing big or if they should wait for a potential star-studded free agent class in 2026.
The 2025 unrestricted free agent class has a number of impact players, starting with Marner. He’s an elite puck-mover whose two-way game makes him an all-around threat. And that should earn him a payday this summer, even with some concerns about his play in high-pressure situations. Evolving-Hockey projects a seven-year contract worth an average annual value of $12.7 million. But up-and-coming teams with extra cap flexibility could push the boundaries even more, up to the $14 million range.
Marner isn’t the only big-name player set to become a free agent. Barring an extension in the next couple of weeks, Ehlers — who beat some of his playoff demons this spring in Winnipeg — could be looking at a seven-year deal, worth $8.9 million a year on average.
Teams that strike out on those wingers could explore the tier below, with players like Brock Boeser, Brock Nelson and Matt Duchene.
Boeser’s goal-scoring ability is valuable, especially in a league where offense can win championships. But is he something of a passenger otherwise, which adds risk to his next contract. A seven-year extension, with a projected $8 million cap hit, is rich for someone who doesn’t drive play enough in his own right.
Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett are two other players likely to cash in this summer, if available on July 1. This may not be Prime Marchand anymore, but he is showing what he has left in the tank in Florida and how impactful he is in the playoffs. Bennett’s physical, playoff-style of hockey tends to appeal to general managers, too.
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On defense, Aaron Ekblad is one of the few pending free-agent defensemen in line for a long-term deal; Evolving-Hockey projects a six-year deal with a $7.7 million AAV. Vladislav Gavrikov is also of first-pair caliber, but is more likely to sign a deal with a shorter term. Dante Fabbro, Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov highlight the list of second-pair defenders currently set to hit the market.
All in all, it’s a fine set of players, but it doesn’t come close to the potential star power in 2026.
The 2026 class also has a handful of second-line caliber forwards and second-pair defensemen on expiring deals. But what separates these groups of free agents is the talent available at the top.
While the 2025 class boasts one elite player in Marner, the 2026 class is headlined by three MVP-caliber forwards: Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov and Jack Eichel.
The 2026 free agent class outshines 2025’s two first-line caliber players with five — Kyle Connor and Adrian Kempe, who should make eight figures on their next deals, along with Artemi Panarin, Martin Necas and Alex Tuch.
The defensive group is a bit thinner. But between Mattias Ekholm, John Carlson, Jake Walman and Ryan McDonagh, there are four true first-pair caliber defenders with expiring contracts in 2026.
So, how should general managers navigate the next couple of seasons?
The easy answer is to wait until 2026 if a team misses out on the top impact players in 2025. The salary cap is set to rise again, to $104 million, which will provide managers with even more money to work with. But it’s actually not that simple.
It all depends on who is left to sign by 2026. That’s the 10-plus million dollar question every year.
The 2025 free agent class was star-studded at one point … and then players started signing extensions early, pictured in red below.
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Jaccob Slavin signed on the first day he was eligible, on July 1, as did Juuse Saros. Pavel Buchnevich and Victor Hedman quickly followed.
Travis Konency, Leon Draisaitl and Sidney Crosby all extended before the puck dropped on the 2024-25 season. Carter Verhaeghe and Shea Theodore were locked up in October, then Igor Shesterkin signed his eight-year deal in December.
Few big-name pending free agents make it to the deadline without an extension in place. When that happens, general managers are faced with two options: trade the player to ensure a return, instead of letting them walk for nothing on July 1, or use them as a rental and deal with the fallout later.
Tavares, Panarin, and Johnny Gaudreau are three rare examples of the latter; Tavares left the Islanders for the Maple Leafs, Panarin from the Blue Jackets to Rangers, and Gaudreau from the Flames to Blue Jackets.
But in some cases — hello, Mikko Rantanen — general managers take a more proactive approach. The Rantanen situation had its own unique quirks, though, since he was traded twice in one season. In the end, he was signed to an eight-year extension in Dallas, which took another high-end player off the board.
And this isn’t a trend exclusive to this past year.
The 2024 free-agent class was set to be headlined by Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Sebastian Aho, Jake Guentzel, Sam Reinhart, Gus Forsling, Devon Toews, Noah Hanifin, Connor Hellebuyck and Ilya Sorokin, among others. Not one of those players made it to July 1 unsigned. The closest was Guentzel, whose signing rights were traded from Carolina to Tampa Bay, where he signed an eight-year deal on June 30.
Instead, a very different caliber group headlined free agency in 2024: Elias Lindholm, Chandler Stephenson and Steven Stamkos were among the top centers on the board, which inflated their signing values. Jonathan Marchessault, Teuvo Teravainen, Sean Monahan, Alexander Wennberg, Tyler Toffoli, Jake DeBrusk and Tyler Bertuzzi were among the other available forwards. On the back end, Brady Skjei, Brandon Montour, Matt Roy, Brett Pesce, Chris Tanev and Sean Walker were some of the available defensemen.
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Rewind to 2023. Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, Dylan Larkin, Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller and Mackenzie Weegar were all off the board by the time free agency opened. That left names like Alex Killorn, Ryan O’Reilly, J.T. Compher, Ryan Graves, Dmitry Orlov, Niko Mikkola and Joonas Korpisalo available on July 1.
Aleksander Barkov, Mika Zibanejad, Tomas Hertl, Sean Couturier, Valeri Nichushkin, Ryan Pulock, Morgan Rielly and Darnell Nurse all extended early ahead of 2022 free agency. Filip Forsberg re-signed in Nashville the day before his contract expired. So the top players available when the market opened included Nazem Kadri, Vincent Trocheck, Andrew Copp, Claude Giroux, Mason Marchment, Ben Chiarot, Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell.
Could these next couple of years be different in a rising cap world?
Maybe teams won’t make the mistake the Avalanche did and move Rantanen too soon. Maybe they will be more willing to hold onto pending UFAs as internal rentals, even if that player is set to walk away on July 1. And maybe that opens the door to general managers signing elite talent in free agency next summer.
Or maybe players will start taking more control of their futures. If Marner can get $14 million, what could that mean for someone like Eichel on the open market?
Then again, who knows if that even happens this summer?
Ehlers could sign an extension with the Jets tomorrow. The Panthers could lock up Bennett and Marchand sometime within the next month. That could shrink the free agent class even further, and subsequently lead to middle-class overpayments, which tends to be the case when few impact players are left on July 1.
If anything, general managers should use this summer to gauge the best way to utilize their spending power, rather than letting that extra cap burn a hole in their pockets. There is no reason to spend just for the sake of spending, especially with the 2026 class looming — unless they can land a true top-line caliber impact player.
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Basically, it’s a balancing act.
If Marner is available this summer, teams should try to sign him because it’s rare that an elite player makes it to free agency. General managers shouldn’t look past him in the hopes that Kaprizov is available next July (especially since he has already expressed that he wants to stay in Minnesota).
But when Marner, Ehlers and Tavares are off the board, whether or not that happens before or on July 1, teams shouldn’t necessarily jump to sign Boeser for $8-9 million a year, either. Instead, teams have to start taking more calculated risks and learn when to spend and when to wait.
In a perfect world, free agency is the best way to acquire top players, since it only requires cap space. But the reality is that top-tier players rarely make it to July 1, so teams have to measure the risk-reward of penciling in any 2026 free agents.
General managers should stay mindful of the list of players set to be available in 2026, but it shouldn’t be at the forefront of any decision-making, either. Instead, teams have to keep exploring every other avenue to acquire high-end players, whether it’s the few players set to be available this summer, offer sheets, or trades.
Data via TheStanleyCap and CapWages
(Top photo of Connor McDavid and Mitch Marner: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
