The Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres meet for the second time in a week and as Neil Parker explains, the Under is the play once again.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
While the Buffalo Sabres have been playing late-season spoiler of late with an active 6-3 stretch, it’s the Ottawa Senators trading as a huge home favorite for their showdown at the Canadian Tire Centre on Tuesday, April 1.
The two teams played to a 3-2 Buffalo win last Tuesday, and my top NHL picks and Sabres vs. Senators predictions expect Ottawa to drive the play in another low-scoring game tonight.
My Senators pick: Under 6.5 goals (-115 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators lost 3-2 to the Buffalo Sabres last Tuesday, and I’m expecting another low-scoring game from the two clubs tonight.
Ottawa has been a force on home ice with a 21-10-2 record, which includes allowing the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. On the opposite bench, Buffalo hasn’t traveled well with a 12-22-3 record while generating the fifth-fewest xFG/60 at 5-on-5.
The 5-on-5 possession numbers tell a similar story with Ottawa sporting a ninth-ranked 51.9 Corsi For percentage at home, and Buffalo ranks 25th with a 48.0% mark.
We’re seeing this high total because the Sabres have played to the Over in 43 of their last 78 games (+14.40 Units / 16% ROI), but I’m expecting it to be the Senators driving the play and keeping the scoring in check. Ottawa has hit the Under in 43 of their last 82 games (+9.40 Units / 11% ROI), after all.
Additionally, Sens No. 1 Linus Ullmark continues to flash. He’s won six of his past eight starts with a solid .910 save percentage, and I still think the best as a Sen is ahead for the 2022-23 Vezina Trophy winner.
As noted, the Sabres have been rolling, so I was surprised to see Pinnacle open with the Sens a -200 home favorite. The steep price does align with the highlighted home and road splits for the two clubs, though. Plus, Ottawa has won 22 of its last 36 games at home (+4.70 Units / 9% ROI).
I’m expecting there to be a move to the Under at Pinnacle because of how strong Ottawa has played defensively on home ice. Additionally, Buffalo sports an unsustainably high 15.7 team shooting percentage across its past nine games.
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Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
The Ottawa Senators have hit the Under in 43 of their last 82 games (+9.40 Units / 11% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Sabres.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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