Two of the least effective offenses in the NHL collide in Nashville tonight as the Senators take on the Predators, and Neil Parker's picks are all over the Under.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
Goals will be tough to come by at Bridgestone Arena with the Ottawa Senators visiting the Nashville Predators on Monday, February 3.
Ottawa has won four straight to climb into third spot in the Atlantic Division, and my top Senators vs. Predators predictions and NHL picks are calling for the Sens’ strong defense to help the total to go Under the number tonight.
My Senators pick
Under 5.5 (-103 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators and Nashville Predators have both played to the Under all season, and they respectively rank 20th (2.83) and 30th (2.61) in goals per game. It’s also a similar story at 5-on-5 with Ottawa scoring 1.97 goals per 60 minutes (31st) and Nashville at 1.89 (32nd).
Ottawa and Nashville also rank 31st and 32nd in 5-on-5 team shooting percentage, and while both clubs have positive regression ahead, this isn’t the spot for the statistical correction to kick in all at once. Both teams are above the line in 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage and expected goals percentage.
Juuse Saros has allowed two goals or fewer in four of his past six starts, including turning away 33 of 35 last time out against the Pittsburgh Penguins. He also ranks 15th in both SV% and goals saved above average per 60 over the past three seasons. His opposite number, Anton Forsberg, has allowed one or fewer goals in three of his last five starts.
I also value that Ottawa dips to 30th in goals per 60 at 5-on-5 (1.85) and goals per game (2.33) on the highway, and the Sens have played to the Under in 33 of their past 48 away games.
There has been a short move to the Ottawa side of this moneyline, with the Sens opening at +114 at Pinnacle and trading at +107 as of Monday morning. The Sens have won four straight and nine of their past 12 to climb into third spot in the Atlantic Division, so it isn’t surprising to see the Ottawa action with Nashville sitting third-last in the Western Conference.
This total hasn’t seen meaningful betting action to move the number. Both clubs have played to the Under this season, and in addition to Ottawa trending to the Under on the highway, the Preds have also hit the game total Under in 46 of their last 88 games (+5.30 Units / 6% ROI).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
The Senators have hit the Under in 33 of their last 48 away games (+20.25 Units / 39% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Predators.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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