The Senators have tightened things up in recent outings, and they'll make it hard for a banged-up Panthers side to score this afternoon.
NHL
The offense has dried up in Florida with the Panthers scoring exactly two goals in four consecutive games.
My Panthers vs. Senators predictions see the offense in for another slow night in a battle between two banged-up and defensively sound Atlantic Division teams.
Let’s dive deeper into my NHL picks for April 5 .
My Senators pick: Under 5.5 (-117 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Florida Panthers are getting themselves into playoff mode. They’ve really tightened the screws, ranking seventh in goals allowed at five-on-five over the last 10 games.
That’s important for a couple of reasons. You want to rely on your structure and play a sound game at this time of year, that’s a factor. There is also the absence of several key players in the lineup.
Florida is playing without Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk due to injuries, and minute-eater Aaron Ekblad is also suspended on the back end.
Those are crucial absences and take much of the firepower out of Florida’s lineup, making it more important that it plays sound defense.
The Ottawa Senators aren’t exactly at 100% either. They’re missing three regulars, most prominently captain and leading goal scorer Brady Tkachuk.
With the Tkachuk brothers and Barkov all slated to miss this game, three of the five best weapons will not take part. That will make it difficult for the goals to flow, especially against two teams that have limited opposing offenses of late.
Ottawa has given up three goals or less in six of the past seven and posted a 3-5-2 O/U record spanning their last 10. Meanwhile, Florida has allowed 27 shots or fewer in five straight games and owns a 4-6 O/U record over the last 10.
It’s also worth noting only three of the past 10 head-to-head meetings have gone Over the total. Expect that trend to continue this afternoon.
The defending Stanley Cup champions are getting a lot of respect even without two of the best two-way forwards in the league and Ekblad on defense.
They opened with an implied probability of 55.6%, and the line has since moved further in their direction, now trading at -130 (56.5% implied win probability).
It’s not surprising Florida has seen that kind of love. The Cats are the name-brand team and have owned Ottawa in recent years, winning eight of the last 10 against their division foe.
The total has remained stagnant since opening, not moving in either direction. I wouldn’t be surprised if more money comes in on the Under leading up to puck drop and it closes closer to -125.
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Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
The Ottawa Senators have hit the game total Under in 43 of their last 83 games (+8.10 Units / 9% ROI).. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Panthers.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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