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Last Updated: November 12, 2024 12:13 PM EST • 3 min 12 sec read.
Just over a year ago, the Ottawa Senators stormed into Scotiabank Arena and beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. And it wasn’t a one-off, as Ottawa took both away tilts against Toronto last season. 
However, the Maple Leafs are off to a blistering 7-2-0 start at Scotiabank Arena, winning all seven by at least two goals. And while it’s still early, the Sens have won just two of seven on the road and are tied with the Columbus Blue Jackets for the worst road points percentage (.286). 
Auston Matthews is expected to miss his fourth straight game, with a potential return on Saturday against the Edmonton Oilers earmarked. The Maple Leafs, who are among the Stanley Cup odds front-runners, enter Tuesday’s contest (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+) as favorites. 
Our Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction extends on that narrative, leaning on Craig Berube’s squad to pick up a fifth successive home victory. 
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -125 via Betway | Implied probability: 55.56%
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The Sens have confirmed Linus Ullmark as their starter. The former Vezina winner hasn’t adapted to life in Ottawa like a duck on water, struggling to find his peak form since landing in the nation’s capital.
He’s 3-4-0 with a 2.87 goals-against average (GAA) and a .890 save percentage.
In addition, Ullmark is 4-5-1 against the Maple Leafs with a 3.23 GAA and a .896 save percentage. He beat the Boston Bruins in overtime on Saturday but finished that game with -.037 goals saved above expected after a -1.35 performance against the Buffalo Sabres in the previous road game. 
While Anthony Stolarz is the inarguable No. 1, Toronto plays in Washington tomorrow, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Berube give Joseph Woll the start against Ottawa.
Then again, the Senators are division rivals, so it also makes sense for Stolarz to get the start. Stolarz is the probable starter, according to DailyFaceoff.com, as he was in the starter’s crease for the morning skate.
He has been a revelation for the Buds. His presence is calming and reassuring, giving his team a chance to win every night. The 30-year-old has allowed one goal in his last two starts and four in the last three. During that three-game stretch, he has a 0.99 GAA, a .964 save percentage, and 4.22 goals saved above expected. 
While the sun has barely risen on the campaign, and he’ll need to continue his exquisite play, don’t be surprised if you start hearing Stolarz’s name mentioned in Vezina conversations. 
Berube has thus far found a perfect balance at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto has allowed three goals in its current four-game win streak, outscoring the opposition 15-3. Sound defensive play and excellent goaltending have been the backbone of this home juggernaut.
Tied for the sixth-best home points percentage (.778), the Maple Leafs have been buoyed by a power play that is white hot. They are 7-for-13 in the last three games, scoring at least two in each contest. And all of this success has come without triggerman Matthews.  
While Ottawa usually saves its best for Toronto, I can’t see Travis Green’s squad solving their road issues against one of the in-form home teams. A winning $10 bet will profit $8. 
NHL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +165 via Betway | Implied probability: 37.74%
Mitch Marner has six points in the three games without Matthews, five of which on the power play. I’m banking on the Maple Leafs’ power play remaining hot against one of the league’s worst road penalty kills. The Sens’ penalty kill is more porous in enemy environments than a loosely linked fence. With a 70.6 efficiency rate, it is tied for the fourth worst with the Bruins. 
A winning $10 bet will profit $16.50. 
Senators-Maple Leafs predictions made Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET.

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