So much is on the line when Ottawa and Montreal meet tonight, and both offenses will put their best foot forward.
NHL
The Ottawa Senators will host the Montreal Canadiens in a high-stakes divisional clash between teams separated by three points in the standings.
The offenses usually win out when these two teams square off, and my Senators vs. Canadiens predictions expect no different this time.
Let’s take a closer look at my NHL picks for April 11.
My Senators pick: Over 5.5 (-115 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
There always seems to be fireworks when the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens square off. The Atlantic Division rivals play each other often, and the goals tend to follow in bulk.
They’ve met three times this season and combined to score 21 times, good for an average of seven per contest.
Zooming out further, six of the past eight have featured at least seven goals. Both Unders along the way were 4-1 games that fell a puck short of this 5.5 total.
Montreal enters play in fine offensive form, sitting 11th in expected goals generated during 5-on-5 play spanning the past 10 games.
The Habs also found the back of the net at least three times in five of the past six, only failing to do so in the latter half of a road back-to-back. Montreal is in a much better rest situation now, having sat on the sidelines since Tuesday.
On the other side, the Senators have done a great job of testing goaltenders of late — even without scoring chance machine Brady Tkachuk in the lineup.
Ottawa has generated the fifth most high-danger shots over the last 10 games, ranking ahead of teams like Winnipeg, Colorado, and Carolina.
The Senators and Canadiens are still jockeying for positioning in the standings, so this game holds a lot of weight. I expect a competitive, back-and-forth matchup where either team will aggressively pull the goalie in potential late-game deficits.
The Senators opened as massive -165 favorites but have seen their price shorten, now trading at -149.
I’m not at all surprised by the shift. The Canadiens are in better defensive form, ranking in the league’s top half in limiting shots and expected goals during 5-on-5 play over the last 10 games. The Senators rank Bottom 5 in each category.
Ottawa is also playing without star winger Brady Tkachuk, which boosts Montreal’s chances of winning the game.
The total quickly shifted from six to 5.5 after opening. The price has remained stagnant at that total, holding at -115 on the Over.
We haven’t seen the market take a strong stance in one way or the other. The odds are unlikely to shift much unless either team surprises us and opts to start the backup goaltender.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
The Montreal Canadiens have only hit the game total Under in 15 of their last 42 away games (-10.55 Units / -23% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Canadiens.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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