We're officially entering the home stretch of the season, and the Senators will put it all on the line to pick up two points tonight.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
The stretch drive is here, and the chips are on the table for the Ottawa Senators at the United Center against the basement-dwelling Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday, March 5.
Ottawa has dropped six of its past seven to drop out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, but my Senators vs. Blackhawks predictions and NHL picks expect the Sens to cash those chips in tonight.
My Senators pick
Senators in regulation (-120 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
A large reason for the Ottawa Senators highlighted struggles was injury related, with impact centers Josh Norris and Shane Pinto missing time, and captain Brady Tkachuk also out of the lineup for a pair of games.
All three are back in action, and Ottawa is coming off a solid offensive showing during its 5-4 overtime loss to the Washington Capitals on Monday. The Sens have scored nine times across their past two games, which is incredibly welcomed considering they rank 22nd in goals per game (2.82) for the campaign.
This is a good spot for the good times to keep rolling, too.
The Chicago Blackhawks have allowed the third-most goals per game and fifth-most expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Chicago also sports a league-low 43.8 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5, and Ottawa is positioned to drive possession and pile up high-quality scoring chances.
I still expect a stretch-drive surge from Sens No. 1 goalie Linus Ullmark. While he’s flashed, and the former Vezina Trophy winner is still sporting a respectable .911 SV% and 2.71 GAA with 0.15 goals saved above average per 60 minutes, there’s potential for improvement behind a healthy lineup.
Again, this is a matchup to cash in on for Ullmark with Chicago scoring the eighth-fewest goals per game and generating the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Unsurprisingly, there’s been a move to the Ottawa side of this moneyline at Pinnacle. The shop opened Sens -193, which is at -202 as of Wednesday morning. Chicago has won two straight, so there’s potential for buyback action on the home underdog, but I strongly prefer the Ottawa side tonight.
Even with Ottawa playing to the Under in 28 of their last 47 road games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI), there has been early action on the Over 6.0 in tonight’s tilt. Pinnacle opened with the Under 6.0 (-111) carrying the higher vig and is now trading with the 6.0 total trading with a -109/-103 split.
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Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
The Ottawa Senators have hit the game total Under in 28 of their last 47 away games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Blackhawks.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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