The Penguins offense is in a bad way, and an improving Red Wings defense is not what the doctor ordered for Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Back Lucas Raymond & Co. versus a Pens team that is lost at sea.
NHL
A pair of struggling teams hit the ice at PPG Paints Arena on Wednesday, November 13, with the Detroit Red Wings visiting the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Detroit has played solid defense of late, while Pittsburgh is struggling to find the back of the net. My top Red Wings vs. Penguins predictions and NHL picks are calling for more of the same from the two clubs tonight.
My best bet
Penguins team total Under 3.5 (-120 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Detroit Red Wings have played to the Under in four consecutive games and are both playing sound team defense and receiving elite goaltending during the stretch.
The Red Wings have surrendered just three goals, 6.88 expected goals, and 23 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five across the past four games, and they’ve also won the fancy stats with a 51.4 Corsi For percentage and 55.7 xGF%.
Additionally, Detroit starter Cam Talbot sports an impressive .926 save percentage and 2.39 GAA with 0.44 goals saved above average per 60 minutes this season. He’s been even better of late with respective .935, 2.01, and 0.91 marks across his past five starts.
Of course, the Pittsburgh Penguins have scored three goals or fewer in 11 of their past 12 games while averaging just 1.58 per at 5-on-5, too.
There’s also oodles of drama circling the Pittsburgh organization, and while difficult to quantify, I think it’s been festering since general manager Kyle Dubas dealt winger Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline last March.
It’s a distraction, if nothing else, but there’s also the potential for the Penguins to be in the beginning stages of their worst season since captain Sidney Crosby’s debut in 2005-2006. I think we’re far closer to the latter than the former.
Regardless, Detroit’s commitment to team defense, recent improved play, and sound goaltending aren’t the required ingredients in the bounce-back recipe for the reeling Pittsburgh offense.
Penguins team total Under 3.5
Red Wings moneyline
Lucas Raymond Over 0.5 assists
In addition to the Red Wings tightening up defensively, they’re also sporting an unsustainably low 6.55 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5, and an even lower 3.41 mark during the highlighted four-game stretch. With Pittsburgh allowing the second-most goals (3.83) and seventh-most expected goals (3.37) per 60 minutes, I’m anticipating the Detroit offense rebounding Wednesday.
Turning to Detroit winger Lucas Raymond, he’s found the scoresheet in six of the past eight games for a goal and eight assists. He also paces the club with 2.79 assists per 60 minutes and 0.86 per game.
As noted, Pittsburgh is reeling and is poor defensively, and Detroit has loaded up its No. 1 line with Raymond playing with Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat in all situations.
The trio have been on the ice for a solid 5.08 goals per 60 minutes, which includes a solid 4.12 mark at 5-on-5 while also driving possession with a 54.3 CF%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
The Penguins have scored three goals or fewer in 11 of their past 12 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs. Penguins.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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