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Last Updated: November 8, 2024 12:10 PM EST • 2 min 53 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
If you haven’t heard, the Toronto Maple Leafs thrive when Auston Matthews doesn’t play.
On Tuesday, the Buds beat the Boston Bruins 4-0, improving their record without the world’s best goalscorer to 36-19-2. It marked their first win against the Bruins in nine regular-season contests.
With or without him, they’re one of the Stanley Cup odds front-runners, which is a testament to their depth and collective resilience.
Matthews is day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and his status for Friday’s game at Scotiabank Arena against the Detroit Red Wings (7 p.m., ESPN+) is still unknown.
I don’t think the result of tonight’s game would differ whether Matthews is in or out of the lineup, such is the Maple Leafs’ impressive resume without him. It’s one of the reasons our Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs prediction expects the home team to secure both points in regulation.
Editor’s note: Matthews has been placed on injured reserve and won’t be active for tonight’s game. After being confirmed as the Red Wings’ starting netminder, Alex Lyon was ruled out due to a lower-body injury. Cam Talbot will starr
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
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OK, unlike Christmas at a poorly behaved child’s home, there’s lots to unwrap here.
I’d be surprised to see Matthews play. There’s no sense risking him this early in the season, particularly given how well the Maple Leafs play without him. In 57 games without him, they have allowed 2.3 goals per game, winning 11 with a shutout.
At least recently, Toronto’s defense was playing well before Tuesday’s shutout victory. Excluding the St. Louis Blues’ empty-netter, the Maple Leafs have conceded three or fewer goals in the last four games.
Anthony Stolarz was in the starter’s crease at Toronto’s morning skate and should get the nod between the pipes. Even without that recent update, I’d be shocked to see Craig Berube start Joseph Woll. At the moment, Stolarz is the undisputed No. 1.
I expect Woll to start on Saturday at home against the bottom-feeding Montreal Canadiens.
Stolarz has been magnificent in his nine starts, allowing more than two goals on just three occasions. He shut out the Bruins on Tuesday and has turned aside 182 of 190 5-on-5 shots this season.
While his 5-2-2 start speaks for itself, Stolarz has been even more impressive than that record suggests. He has the fifth-best goals saved above expected (6), a 2.12 goals-against average (GAA), and a .928 save percentage.
Cam Talbot has been Detroit’s Stolarz. On Wednesday, Talbot was exceptional again in Detroit’s 4-1 win over Chicago. He has the fourth-best goals saved above expected (6.2), just ahead of Stolarz.
NHL picks made Friday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +200 via Betway | Implied probability: 33.33%
Don’t look now, but the Maple Leafs have scored four power-play goals on their last nine opportunities, including three against Boston sans Matthews.
Mitch Marner tallied an assist on three of those four goals, and he’s facing a reeling Red Wings penalty kill that ranks fourth-worst in the NHL (69.4%).
Plus, Detroit’s best penalty-killer, Talbot, will be watching on from the bench. A $10 winning bet will profit $20.
Red Wings-Maple Leafs predictions made Friday at 11 a.m. ET.
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