NHL
Since the turn of the century, Edmonton Oilers fans have seen some things on opening night. In the fall of 2009, then-head coach Pat Quinn placed rugged fourth-line winger Jean-Francois Jacques on the No. 1 line with Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky. The team’s most talented young forward, Sam Gagner, found himself on the fourth line.
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The best opening-night lineup for the Oilers over the past 25 years might be the 2005-06 group. Craig MacTavish was the coach, and he had four strong lines that delivered impressive five-on-five outscoring:
Ryan Smyth-Shawn Horcoff-Radek Dvorak
Raffi Torres-Michael Peca-Ales Hemsky
Ethan Moreau-Jarret Stoll-Fernando Pisani
Todd Harvey-Marty Reasoner-Georges Laraque
There is a rugged edge on every line, a strong two-way player on each trio (and two on the top line) and scoring from all units. This edition of the Oilers boasted Chris Pronger as the top defenceman, and he tilted the ice every shift. Still, the balance MacTavish managed on that 2005-06 team was exceptional, and one of the reasons the club reached the Stanley Cup Final.
What the 2005 and 2009 teams didn’t have was Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Could this edition of the Oilers do something similar to the 2005-06 team, only better?
Back in 2005, two-way forwards were identified mostly by reputation. In modern times, we have Puck IQ to help us establish the best outscoring and suppression players.
The Oilers have such ridiculous talent. Draisaitl’s ability to outscore five-on-five and post strong offensive numbers in the metric with pedestrian wingers is a massive advantage. Last year, he played 388 minutes versus elites and allowed just 1.9 GA per 60 against the league’s best. His numbers alongside left winger Vasily Podkolzin were shocking: In 471 minutes (isolated away from McDavid), the two men delivered a 57 percent goal share (61 percent expected), via Natural Stat Trick.
The McDavid line should get a tweak this fall, owing mostly to a fall in goals-for when the captain plays with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. Switching out Nugent-Hopkins and adding newcomer Andrew Mangiapane should give the line more offensive punch while maintaining strong two-way ability.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The top two lines should deliver consistent five-on-five results. McDavid’s goal-scoring ability should regress in a positive way, with the relentless forechecking of Hyman and Mangiapane giving the captain all kinds of room to wheel. All three players will be looking for more goals this coming year. Mangiapane could post strong offence if he develops chemistry with McDavid.
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Draisaitl’s ability to perform well with anyone should be a great boost for the rookie Matt Savoie. He likely gets the first big push among the two feature rookies up front, and his aggressive style and ability to pass the puck will be a positive. Podkolzin held his own as an outscorer a year ago and is young enough to blossom offensively in Year 2 with Draisaitl. The two big men on this line are a load, while giving Edmonton a strong two-way wrinkle even against elites.
If the coaching staff can use Mangiapane and Savoie as solutions on the top two lines, things open up for the kind of four-line presence Oilers fans saw 20 years ago.
Nugent-Hopkins and Adam Henrique could provide both units with a veteran pivot who could play in all three game states. Both have enough offensive ability to make skill plays, and Nugent-Hopkins has been a plus two-way type for over a decade.
The wingers who will occupy the third and fourth lines are a varied group. Ike Howard, who has never played a game of pro hockey, will be something of a wild card who could move up and down the lineup depending on whether he’s running hot or cold.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The third line has a nice mix of skill and physicality, along with Nugent-Hopkins serving as mentor for Howard, Edmonton’s other rookie winger. All three men should hold their own at five-on-five, with Nugent-Hopkins playing on both special teams. Howard may get a look on the power play. Trent Frederic has been used sparingly on the power play the last two seasons, with encouraging results.
The fourth line has wingers who compensate for Henrique’s average speed with two burners. Both Curtis Lazar and Kasperi Kapanen are fast and aggressive, and all three players have enough offensive ability (when healthy) to contribute. Lazar will be counted on in multiple areas and should be considered an important, if under-the-radar, addition to the club.
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There’s a chance the Oilers keep only 13 forwards for opening night, in an effort to bank cap room for the deadline. Candidates for the final spot would include veteran checker Mattias Janmark, Swedish league leading scorer from a year ago David Tomasek and right-handed centre Noah Philp. Wingers Max Jones and Roby Jarventie probably start the season in the minors, but could be early recalls depending on team needs.
The 2005-06 team was much stronger than most remember. The Oilers barely got into the playoffs that season, but that was mainly due to a lack of goaltending. The team’s forwards offered MacTavish a balanced group with rugged players on each line and a strong two-way presence.
The lines above offer similar balance for coach Kris Knoblauch, with better talent than 20 years ago.
All three men on the McDavid line can take care of themselves, and the wingers can crash, bang, forecheck and turn over pucks. Those things lead to McDavid’s spectacular chances off the rush.
The Draisaitl line has plenty of grit along with the most talented big man in the industry. Draisaitl’s ability to score and outscore with somewhat obscure wingers has become a strength of this team. It’s part of the reason the club could reimagine the fourth line this winter.
The third and fourth lines can fight it out for the rest of the five-on-five playing time. The Nugent-Hopkins unit has a physical player (Frederic), a pure scorer (Howard) and a player with enormous utility. The Mike Peca line 20 years ago had many of these elements and put them to good use.
The Henrique line is a fourth unit in name only. If Lazar is healthy, he could return to 2023-24 levels, when he scored 1.61 points per 60 and owned a 52 percent expected goal share. Kapanen’s biggest sin is inconsistency, but he’s a dangerous player in the offensive zone. A season against the soft parade fourth lines could produce strong numbers.
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The dream for the modern Oilers has never been four balanced lines a la 2005-06 Oilers, as the club is going to run the McDavid and Draisaitl lines for most of the game. What the Oilers can do with this alignment is give the coaching staff four lines that can play any style, and could be shuffled when things are not clicking during the regular season.
There’s more youth, which will be vital with a gruelling early schedule, and there is room to grow offensively from the likes of Savoie, Howard and Podkolzin.
There is competition for playing time among the third and fourth units. It means the coaching staff doesn’t have to trash the fourth line for parts in-game, and can give the top two lines a breather when games are out of hand.
Finally, it ensures both young wingers play in big-game situations and the organization is guaranteed to know what Savoie and Howard can deliver in the spring when the playoffs arrive.
Up next: defence and goalies.
(Photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)
Allan Mitchell is a contributor to The Athletic’s Oilers coverage. Veteran radio broadcaster. His blog, Lowetide, has chronicled the team since 2005. Follow Allan on Twitter @Lowetide
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