Who’s in and who’s out of the 2026 NCAA Hockey Tournament? We predict all 16 teams, seeding scenarios, and potential first-round matchups:
The NCAA Tournament is a month away, and without a dedicated Joe Lunardi providing game-by-game projections of the last four in, last four out and bubble teams, the onus falls on us to parse through the country and find the hockey teams vying for the 2026 crown.
College hockey’s NCAA Tournament is a 16-team format comprised of six conference champions and 10 at-large teams. The 10 at-large teams are chosen by a committee who use an analytical rankings system to determine the best teams. It’s like a combination of the BCS system and the current College Football Playoff committee format. The highest-ranked teams are chosen by the computers, and the committee handles the seeding. More on that in a second.
For this year’s NCAA Tournament, the Pairwise rankings (advanced analytical rankings) have been replaced by the NPI (NCAA Percentage Index). The NPI rankings will serve in the exact same capacity and also have “NCAA” in the name to remind people of their importance.
The Pairwise rankings may have been sunset, but we will still use the Pairwise Probability Matrix (PPM) to help project the likelihood of teams making the big dance. It will never go this chalk in college hockey, but we have to start somewhere. Let’s run through the conferences and identify the contenders, and keep in mind that all rankings referenced are from the official NPI designation.
This one is easy. Only one team from this conference is getting into the NCAA Tournament to be served up to the top overall seed. Barring a shocking run, this is a two-horse race between No. 25 Bentley or No. 36 RIT. Prediction: Bentley
Our dearly beloved Big Ten is guaranteed three spots with No. 1 Michigan State, No. 2 Michigan and No. 5 Penn State. The Nittany Lions have the “lowest” likelihood of the three to make the NCAA Tournament at a *checks notes* 100 percent chance, per PPM. Don’t put it in ink, tattoo it. But after the big three, Wisconsin still has some work to do.
The Badgers could have been argued as the best team in the conference in the first half of the season. But after hitting a six-game skid shortly after returning to action, the Badgers, with a 65 percent chance to make the dance, now find themselves with little margin for error. However, similar to the three points earned against Michigan, I think they hold position. Prediction: Michigan State, Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin
Now for some chaos. St. Thomas is the highest-ranked at No. 15, but No. 17 Augustana currently leads in the standings, albeit with two games in hand. Tied with St. Thomas in the conference standings is No. 18 Michigan Tech, with No. 16 Minnesota State, and No. 21 Bowling Green right behind. It’s like the teams are playing darts and fighting over who can land on a specific number in the teens. These teams are dead even, but the conference is still likely to qualify its champion only. Prediction: St. Thomas
Quinnipiac (No. 7), Cornell (No. 10) and Dartmouth (No.11) have all distanced themselves by six games in the conference and are in a great position to make the tournament. However, the team that falls first in the conference tournament will not enjoy the stress of Selection Sunday. Prediction: Quinnipiac, Cornell and Dartmouth
What a weird year. No. 6 Providence is locked in and No. 14 UConn should be safe, but its anyone’s guess after that, with no teams from Massachusetts emerging as a title contender. Boston University and UMass-Lowell aren’t even worthy of discussion. UMass is still clinging to life at No. 19 and Boston College is the best of the rest at No. 12 after a timely sweep over UConn. Despite their earlier struggles, though, let’s not count out the Eagles, who still have the talent to make another run in the NCAA Tournament. Prediction: Providence, UConn and Boston College
Oh boy, the NCHC. This conference has produced seven of the last nine national champions, including four different winners that are all back in contention. No. 3 North Dakota won in 2016, No. 4 Western Michigan won last year, No. 8 Minnesota-Duluth went back-to-back in 2018-19, and No. 9. Denver won in 2017, 2022 and 2024. And No. 26 Miami (OH) is still lingering around to play spoiler. Prediction: North Dakota, Western Michigan, Denver and Minnesota-Duluth
Now that we have our teams, let’s dive into the seeding. This is where the committee gets overly involved, some might say. Instead of straight seeding, the committee will maneuver matchups to avoid inter-conference clashes in the first games.
In this scenario, Michigan State is the top overall seed and will face Bentley. Although the lowest-ranked team, do not count out Bentley goaltender Nicholas Bevilacqua from making this closer than the Spartans would like. Sharing this region will be Minnesota-Duluth and Cornell. Denver is moved to avoid an NCHC rematch in the opening game with UMD, and Cornell — the team that eliminated Michigan State last year — is swapped in its place.
Michigan draws the next lowest seed of the field, St. Thomas and sharing the region are two other teams the Wolverines are all too familiar with. Quinnipiac eliminated Michigan in the Frozen Four in 2023, and Denver — which swapped with Cornell — knocked off one of the most talented Michigan teams of all time in the Frozen Four in 2022. Both times, the teams that beat the Wolverines went on to win the title.
North Dakota will be the third overall seed and will draw UConn in the opening round. To avoid a Hockey East clash between Providence and Boston College, the Eagles will swap with Dartmouth, who will face the Friars. Providence has only lost once in its last 13 games and should be considered a dark horse title contender.
Lastly, defending national champions, Western Michigan, are in poll position to be awarded the region of death. The Broncos will open against Wisconsin, with Penn State and Boston College squaring off on the other side. If Penn State advances, it will set up a showdown between two 2025 Frozen Four contenders.
Michigan State (1)
Bentley (25)
Minnesota-Duluth (8)
Cornell (10)
Western Michigan (4)
Wisconsin (13)
Penn State (5)
Boston College (12)
North Dakota (3)
UConn (14)
Providence (6)
Dartmouth (11)
Michigan (2)
St. Thomas (15)
Quinnipiac (7)
Denver (9)
So much can and will change over the next month, but this at least provides a snapshot of the potential required gauntlet for the 2026 National Championship.
Can Michigan capture its first title since 1998? Is the NCHC run of dominance going to continue? Or is there a Cinderella lurking? Let us know what you think down in the comments section below!
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