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Last Updated: November 14, 2024 11:39 AM EST • 3 min 35 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
If Connor McDavid gets one point against the Nashville Predators on Thursday night, he’ll have reached 1,000 for his career in the fourth-fewest games in NHL history.
So, the stage is set for McDavid and his Stanley Cup odds favorite Edmonton Oilers as they host the Predators at Rogers Place at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN+).
Winners of two in a row and six of their last nine, the Oilers are beginning to huff and puff. However, they’re yet to blow the roof off Rogers Place, where they’ve lost three of the last five.
Meanwhile, if the Predators’ malaise continues, they should consider changing their name to the Prey. Nashville has lost six of its last eight and is tied with the San Jose Sharks for the third-worst road points percentage (.333).
Our Predators vs. Oilers prediction piggybacks on that narrative, expecting Edmonton – and its prolific pair of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – to take care of business.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
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The Oilers have the seventh-best points percentage (.667) since Oct. 24, winning six of nine contests. Excluding the game against Columbus on Oct. 28, in which McDavid got injured, the Oilers won two of three without him in the lineup.
It took McDavid just one game to return to his prolific best.
After being kept off the scoresheet in his return against the Vegas Golden Knights, McDavid scored three points in the 7-3 win over Vancouver. He followed that performance with a four-point outing at home against the New York Islanders, which the Oilers won 4-3 in overtime.
Thanks to McDavid’s outburst, the Oilers scored 11 goals in the last two games, their most in a two-game set this season. The recent trend points to the Oilers figuring out most facets of their game, including offensively.
Though, that’s more down to getting better puck luck.
They have the fourth-most expected goals (41.15) but the fourth-worst goals-for above expected (minus-10.15). However, that discrepancy has started to shrink slightly in recent weeks, and there’s no way an offensive group so chockfull of elite pedigree doesn’t start scoring on more of their chances.
The Oilers also match up well against the Predators, winning four of the last five, all of which by at least two goals.
The Predators can’t find any semblance of chemistry, particularly on the road. They’ve lost five of six on the road, including four in a row. Nashville allows the fifth-most goals per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (3.11) and scores the fewest (3.11).
While they managed to force overtime in Tampa Bay and Colorado, the aforementioned stats are a recipe for disaster against an Oilers team finally starting to source some momentum.
Backing the Oilers on the moneyline is the preferred option, but the -180 price is too expensive. With the 3-way moneyline play, you’ll earn an $8.33 profit on a $10 bet if the Oilers win in regulation.
NHL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
Considering he’s one point away from 1,000 for his career, it’s almost impossible to turn a blind eye to this prop. The motivation to score his 1000th point on home ice, combined with the fact that he’s been flying around in the last two games like an agitated wasp, instills a high level of confidence.
McDavid had seven points (two goals, five assists) in those two games and should be keen as mustard to score his 1,000th point in game 659. That would place him in a group with Wayne Gretzky (424 games), Mario Lemieux (513), and Mike Bossy (656). Once he achieves the milestone, I can see him notching a second point shortly thereafter.
It’s only a three-star play due to the short -120 odds.
Best odds: +175 via Betway | Implied probability: 36.36%
Draisaitl turns into an even angrier, more steroid-induced Hulk when he plays the Predators. He has 21 points (eight goals, 13 assists) in his last eight games against Nashville over the last three seasons and 46 points in 28 career games. Draisaitl led the Oilers to a 5-1 win in Nashville without McDavid and has four points in his last two contests.
And like an Edmontonian to a McDavid jersey, I’m especially drawn to the +175 odds, which would pay a $17.50 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Predators-Oilers predictions made Thursday at 11 a.m. ET.
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