Pavel Zacha's home-road splits have shown that the forward produces significantly more at TD Garden, and the Bruins host a defensively deficient Predators team tonight.
NHL
Pavel Zacha has piled up the points at home all season long.
Facing a poor defensive team in his own building, my Predators vs. Bruins predictions expect that trend to continue.
Let’s take a closer look at my NHL picks for Tuesday, January 27.
Predators vs Bruins best bet: Pavel Zacha Over 0.5 points (-115)
Pavel Zacha owns some of the most drastic home/road splits you will find. He has been lights out at TD Garden this season, hitting the scoresheet in 21 of 27 games (78%) and only going back-to-back games without a point once.
The Boston Bruins forward has just 10 points through 25 road games and has only produced in nine of those games. His Over rate of 36% on the road is not even half of what he’s managed at home.
Zacha is not only home Tuesday night but is facing a bad Nashville Predators defense to boot. They have allowed 3.41 goals per game this season (fourth-most) and rank 22nd in shots allowed.
While they have won a lot more frequently of late, it’s not due to improved defensive play – at least not at 5-on-5.
The Predators sit 31st in shot suppression and 29th in goals against, and have played at the third-fastest pace over their last 10.
Zacha has excelled in similar spots this season, picking up a point in 11 of 12 home dates against teams that rank Bottom-10 in shots against, goals against, or both.
David Pastrnak has shot the lights out in back-to-backs this season. He has played in five of them and posted gaudy totals, averaging 9.8 attempts per game. That’s well above his season average of 7.7.
When Pastrnak posts high-volume shooting performances, goals usually follow. He has scored 16 times spanning 25 games in which he generated four shots or more.
Pavel Zacha has points in 11 of his last 14 home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Predators vs. Bruins.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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