NHL
By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman
This was never going to be a particularly pleasant season for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Their rebuild is still in its early stages and (for now) hasn’t landed any high-end young pieces, Evgeni Malkin is almost certainly about to play his last 82-ish games with the franchise and the list of reasons for real on-ice optimism is one item long, unless you feel like writing “Sidney Crosby” a few different ways.
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On Sept. 9, the storm clouds got a bit darker, with Crosby and agent Pat Brisson either signaling their openness to seeking a trade out of Pittsburgh or pressuring GM Kyle Dubas to quicken the pace of his rebuild. It’s one or the other, as Josh Yohe wrote, and it’s a big deal.
The Penguins are almost certainly going to be bad and dramatic in equal parts — but will they be bad enough?
Indeed, the Penguins might not be bad enough to land Gavin McKenna at next year’s draft. While this projection puts Pittsburgh in a nice spot, there are some assumptions baked in to get there.
The first is that Mike Sullivan no longer being head coach has a noticeable effect. This year we’ve added some coach adjustments based on their historical ability to improve a roster. In Pittsburgh’s case, Sullivan was a real needle-mover and his absence is noteworthy enough to account for. We estimate his impact at just under two wins, but it is possible the Penguins don’t feel the loss at all.
The second is the likelihood that some combination of Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust could be traded this season. We don’t know if or when that happens, but there’s an adjustment priced in that anticipates the trio won’t play a full season in Pittsburgh.
The sooner the Penguins move on, the better their chances of landing McKenna become.
How does the presence of Karlsson, Rust and Rakell affect Pittsburgh’s chances of a high pick?
At the trade deadline, when Rakell was one of the best wingers theoretically on the market, it was fair to wonder why Dubas didn’t take full advantage. Rakell was in the midst of his best season since 2017-18 with Anaheim, and it felt like his value was unlikely ever to get higher.
Rakell maintained his level of play, finishing with a career-high 35 goals and ultimately proving Dubas’ decision to hold serve correct. Once July 1 came and went, the thinking became, some team left out of the free-agent frenzy would meet Dubas’ price on either Rakell or Rust, a reliable 30-goal scorer whose no-movement clause expired after the regular season. The rising salary cap, meanwhile, would seem to make it more likely that Karlsson, still an effective offensive player for all his warts, would make sense for a team under the right circumstances.
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So much for that. With the regular season upon us, all three remain Penguins — and Pittsburgh’s asking price doesn’t seem to have softened. A Western Conference source told The Athletic in August that Dubas was still looking for three solid assets in return for each of the wingers.
From an asset management standpoint, that’s understandable. There’s no real reason to think any of the three will get off to a value-cratering start, and teams get more desperate as the season progresses. It’s also understandable from a Sidney Crosby-centric standpoint. If Dubas wants Crosby to stay satisfied enough to see the rebuild through in a Penguins uniform, waving the white flag before the season even begins does not seem like a viable path.
Where keeping Rust, Rakell and Karlsson around truly hurts the Penguins, though, is in the Tankathon standings. They’re projected to be Pittsburgh’s second-, third- and fourth-most valuable skaters for the 2025-26 season — the exact sort of players who stop a bad team from maximizing its chance at finishing with a top pick. And make no mistake: Drafting McKenna, for Dubas, would represent the quickest path back to his prime objectives — regaining playoff-race relevance, setting the franchise on a course for true contention and keeping Crosby happy. Those are not necessarily in order, either.
Instead, Pittsburgh’s 74-point projection is based on holding onto Rust, Rakell and Karlsson until deadline season; we’re penciling the former in for 70 games as a Penguin and Rakell and Karlsson for 55 apiece. Had they moved all three during the summer, the Penguins would’ve shaved 11 points or so off their projected total, increased their odds at finishing last overall by 31 percentage points (13 to 44) and increased their odds at finishing in the bottom five by 38 (50 to 88).
That’s not to say that an opening-night first line of Crosby centering Rust and Rakell is a mistake; far from it, in fact, given what we heard from Crosby and Brisson as the offseason wound down. Starting the season in white-flag mode would’ve been destructive and disrespectful. It does, however, illustrate the fundamental issue facing the Penguins — doing right by Crosby, keeping him in the mix permanently and maximizing the rebuild is a complicated, potentially conflicting set of goals. Scorching the earth would be bad; finishing 25th in the league, where the odds of landing the first overall pick drop from 25.5 percent to 6.5, would be bad, too.
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Can Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen step in and make an impact?
The key to this next wave of Penguins’ hockey? Infuse more youth into the lineup. Two prospects look the most ready to take that next leap: McGroarty and Koivunen.
McGroarty’s journey so far is a reminder that development isn’t linear. At the time of last year’s trade, he looked more NHL-ready, while Brayden Yager wasn’t really in the NHL-level plans until 2025-26. Ultimately, after starting the year with the big club, McGroarty was sent down to the AHL for more seasoning. That seemed to agree with him, since he made an impact in Pittsburgh in a few games down the stretch.
While McGroarty brings oomph to the forecheck and an ability to drive to the net, Koivunen has a craftier style. His playing style translated well to the AHL last year and his late-season call-up showed the potential he brings to the lineup.
Now the Penguins have to hope the experience from last year is something these up-and-comers can build on. There is a lot of opportunity in Pittsburgh, and veterans throughout the lineup to ease the transition (for now, at least). But at the end of the day, the Penguins have to do whatever is best for their development.
Pittsburgh’s strengths start (and arguably end) with Crosby. At 38, Crosby remains one of the league’s absolute best players. He may not be a no-doubt top 10 player anymore, but he continues to be in the conversation, landing in Tier 2A in Player Tiers again this season.
What’s most remarkable about Crosby is his consistency at ages where almost every other player in the history of the game got noticeably worse. Even in his post-35 seasons, Crosby has kept it together more than could reasonably be expected. His Net Rating last year: plus-16. The year before that: plus-17. The year before that: plus-18. And the year before that: plus-19. Subtle drop-offs? Sure. Compared to the cliffs most players fall off in their mid-to-late 30s, though, Crosby’s continued dominance makes him an absolute marvel.
At some point, that will change, especially as the supporting cast around Crosby continues to dwindle. The model suggests that could even start this season with a much larger drop than usual forecasted, and it’s worth noting his tracked stats all took a hit last year. That’s a wise bet for any other 38-year-old forward, and an outcome that still expects Crosby to be an average No. 1 forward. Still, when it comes to Crosby — one of the smartest and hardest-working players of all time — take it with a grain of salt until he says otherwise.
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For now, Crosby does have worthy help up front in Rakell and Rust, two decent top-line forwards who work well with him. Rakell popped for 35 goals last season, while Rust has paced for 75 points the last two seasons.
It may not be a great top line in the grand scheme of things, but putting up a 52 percent xG together in tough minutes on a bad team is nothing to scoff at. As far as rebuilding clubs go, it’s a genuine strength and Crosby is obviously at the heart of that.
How Crosby fares if one or both are traded will be interesting to watch, but we’re hoping it means more time spent with Malkin. Last year was a tough one for Malkin (career-low plus-3 Net Rating pace), but the 144 minutes spent next to Crosby — more than the previous six seasons combined — were sublime. They had 58 percent of actual goals and 55 percent of expected goals together.
If the Penguins are going to be bad, and there’s a good chance they’ll be really bad, they might as well make it fun.
Assuming the model underrates Crosby, everything other than him is a problem area on the roster.
As nice as Rakell and Rust still are, on an ideal roster, both are one rung too high in order of importance. That’s a sentiment that permeates throughout the forward ranks until the fourth line and while that’s better than other rebuilding teams, it’s still a problem. It gets worse the second Anthony Mantha gets injured. He’s a decent middle-six winger during the regular season if he’s healthy, but that’s a huge “if.”
Malkin’s inevitable decline is part of the problem here, as he no longer looks capable of anchoring his own line. Not at 39. His puck skills remain strong and it’s possible his reduced value is a result of the environment around him. Still, he dropped to a 19-goal, 60-point pace last season while seeing his individual shot rate plummet. His defensive impacts have also become a much larger sore spot. Put him with Crosby (please, Dan Muse, we’re begging you) and Malkin will be fine. Otherwise, there just isn’t anyone capable of playing with him.
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Maybe McGroarty and/or Koivunen shine as rookies. Maybe Thomas Novak proves he can play up the lineup. Maybe Philip Tomasino does the same. Maybe Mantha is the exact complementary piece Malkin needs. Maybe, maybe, maybe. More likely than not, it may not cut it. The group isn’t horrible as it currently stands, but it does get thin after Crosby.
The forward group is honestly the least of Pittsburgh’s concerns going into this season. It’s the team’s backbend and goaltending where the real trouble lies with two of the league’s worst units.
Based on how Karlsson looked on Team Sweden at 4 Nations, he might still be able to help a different team out. It just won’t be this one with how checked out he was last season.
Offensively, Karlsson still has the goods, scoring 53 points last season while continuing to move the puck well. Defensively, he was an even bigger nightmare than usual. His minus-5.8 Defensive Rating was the third-worst mark of his career and he was a turnstile at his own blue line. He’s better suited as an offensive No. 2.
As for Kris Letang, his days as a top-pair quality defenseman are probably over. He struggled to generate offense amidst the pressure of playing tough minutes on a bad team and saw an across-the-board drop in his puck-moving ability. Letang is still above average at a lot of things, but he no longer looks like a player capable of handling the opposition’s best.
On this team, Letang will have to, considering the complete state of disarray after him and Karlsson. Parker Wotherspoon looked capable in a sheltered role, but he probably isn’t a player who can be trusted in the top four. At least with him, there’s a chance — we already know Ryan Graves, Connor Clifton and Matt Dumba probably won’t cut it there.
Sadly for the Penguins, two of those players will have to, and maybe even three if Karlsson is dealt (which would push Pittsburgh’s defense to six goals worse than 31st). That’s a recipe for disaster, especially given how terrible the Graves-Clifton-Dumba triumvirate is at moving the puck. The Penguins are going to be stuck in their own end all night.
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To make matters worse is a goalie tandem of Tristan Jarry and Arturs Silovs. Jarry grades out as the league’s second-worst starter (thank you, Philadelphia) and ranks 43rd in GSAx over the last three years. He’d be a fine backup or 1B, but he’s a tough sell as a starting goalie. Silovs has done well in the AHL and could be interesting, but hasn’t shown nearly enough at the NHL level to make up for what Jarry lacks.
Despite an ugly blue line and goaltending situation, the Penguins aren’t completely reprehensible. Crosby and friends, plus Karlsson’s offense from the back end, make sure of that. But even if Dubas does nothing, this is probably going to be a bad team that likely lands in the bottom five.
The Penguins move Karlsson and Rakell early for big returns, creating a team that immediately sinks like a stone. The Lemieux-Crosby-McKenna pipeline angers 31 other fan bases.
Dubas takes too long to move his assets and only ends up trading one of Karlsson, Rakell and Rust. It’s not enough to finish in the bottom 10 as a still-elite Crosby drags an otherwise terrible team to the mushy middle and questions about his future in Pittsburgh intensify.
The 2025-26 Penguins are going to finish toward the bottom of the standings, but that may not be enough to move the needle in this process. Until more moves are made, Pittsburgh risks sitting in limbo: Bad enough to miss the playoffs, but not awful enough to land a difference-maker in the 2026 draft.
References
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
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