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Last Updated: October 14, 2024 2:12 PM EDT • 2 min 32 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link
Sam Montembeault has won both of his starts thus far, allowing one goal and turning aside 73 of 74 shots.
I’m riding his hot glove in my Penguins vs. Canadiens prediction, banking on the two Stanley Cup odds long shots to score fewer than six goals for the fourth time in their last five encounters.
Here are my best bets for tonight’s contest with puck drop set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Bell Centre in Montreal.
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: +125 via Betway | Implied probability: 44.44%
Terms and conditions apply.
Montembeault has started the season like a Vezina Trophy odds front-runner, and I have no intention of backing a foray of goals while he’s playing with such extreme confidence. The 27-year-old leads the league with 6.6 goals saved above expected.
No prizes are handed out for guessing who is second on the goals-saved-above-expected list. Yes, it’s last season’s reigning Vezina winner, Connor Hellebuyck. That’s some pretty good company to keep, even if it’s after just two games.
Meanwhile, Tristan Jarry is the confirmed starter for the visiting Pens.
While he allowed six goals against the New York Rangers in his first start, he wasn’t as bad as that tally suggests. He finished with 0.57 goals saved above expected, highlighting how often the collective left him out to dry.
Jarry has fared well against the Canadiens, posting a 2.50 GAA and .913 SV% in nine appearances (6-1-1).
Pittsburgh’s offense scored two goals in its two losses and netted six in its only win. That six-goal explosion against the Red Wings in Detroit was more due to Ville Husso’s subpar goaltending than the Penguins’ offensive display.
Husso finished with -2.76 goals saved above expected, and the Pens’ offense mustered only 3.22 expected goals. It had just 1.78 expected goals in Toronto and 3.26 against the Rangers.
With their offensive woes and the elite goaltending on the other side, we’re backing the Under with a $10 winning bet at Betway profiting $12.50.
NHL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: +140 via Betway | Implied probability: 41.67%
Cole Caufield has four goals in three games, scoring two against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday while adding one against the Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins. He has 10 shots in the first three games.
While scoring on 40% of his shots is obviously unsustainable, he’s popping up in the right spot and has been dangerous on the power play. A winning $10 bet will profit $14.
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
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