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Last Updated: December 12, 2024 7:14 AM EST • 2 min 11 sec read.
Despite being at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens have played better lately, with the former winning five of their last seven games, and the latter triumphant in three of their last four at the Bell Centre. 
Thursday’s contest (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+) offers the third and final instalment of this head-to-head matchup, with the Pens winning both previous tilts. Pittsburgh, the road favorite, enters the game looking for its fifth straight victory over the Canadiens. 
Although they have the seventh-worst away points percentage (.385) and won’t be mistaken for a Stanley Cup odds favorite anytime soon, the Pens find themselves just two points adrift of the final wild-card spot. 
Our Penguins vs. Canadiens prediction focuses on Rickard Rakell and his recent shot-production uptick. 
Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Best odds: -120 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.55%
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The Penguins haven’t been on the road much lately, playing just two of the last 11 in enemy rinks. And while it’s been a minute, I expect them to continue where they left off regarding shot production. The Pens are tied for the fourth-most shots per game on the road (30.5), while the Canadiens allow the second-most shots (31.6) at the Bell Centre. 
It’s the perfect matchup for Rakell, whose shot production has increased recently. Rakell fired at least three shots in three straight and four of the last six. 
He also hit the Over in four of the last five road games. Speaking of away tilts, Rakell had three shots on Oct. 14, the last time Pittsburgh traveled to Montreal. 
The Canadiens are the fourth-most penalized team on home ice, which could add to the factors in Rakell’s favor. A winning $10 bet will yield an $8.33 profit. 
NHL picks made Thursday.
Best odds: -154 via Betway | Implied probability: 60.63%
Matheson getting at least two shots is a three-star play due to the expensive -154 price. While I like the odds about as much as smelling my dog’s breath after devouring tuna, Matheson has hit the Over on this prop in six straight games and 10 of the previous 14.
Like Rackell, Matheson faces a favorable matchup as the Penguins allow the fourth-most shots per game on the road. A winning $10 bet will profit $6.49. 
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