NHL
A summer of change is only getting started in Columbus.
The first big change came last month with Don Waddell’s hiring as Blue Jackets president of hockey operations and general manager. Waddell is already starting to chip away at his offseason checklist, starting with head coach Pascal Vincent’s dismissal.
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One task awaiting the general manager is finding a trade partner for Patrik Laine.
The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported Laine’s representation was working with the team to give the forward a fresh start elsewhere. Aaron Portzline reported the decision to move Laine was made while senior advisor John Davidson was acting as interim general manager. Now, with a permanent general manager in Waddell, the Blue Jackets can actively start looking for a trade partner.
As much interest as there may be around the league for the 2016 No. 2 pick, Columbus should anticipate some challenges.
Laine’s cap hit is one of those challenges. He has two years left on a contract carrying a cap hit of $8.7 million. Even with the cap increasing by $4.5 million to $88 million next season, not every team has the flexibility to take that deal on in its entirety, especially when there is some risk associated with his game.
That cap hit adds to that risk. The big question is whether he can finally live up to the hype and hit his stride consistently.
Recency bias doesn’t help Laine, as he only played 18 games for the Blue Jackets this year after fracturing his clavicle in December and entering the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program in late January. The fact he hasn’t played more than 68 games since 2018-19 may spark some durability concerns.
But acquiring teams can’t just throw away his entire Columbus tenure despite missing time each year. Laine scored at a career-high pace of 3.19 points per 60 in 2021-22 and followed it up with 2.97 points per 60 the next year (the third-best rate of his career). The difference from some of his earlier seasons is that his approach wasn’t as one-dimensional.
At five-on-five in 2021-22 and 2022-23, Laine’s shot still accounted for much of his contributions. He generated shots off the cycle and the rush and made an impact with his one-timer. But he also added more puck movement to his game by setting up his teammates and entering the zone at a high rate.
The key for a new team is to harness what worked for him in those two seasons and to maximize his best asset: his elite shot. That’s what shined in his first two NHL seasons where he scored 36 and 44 goals, respectively. On top of that, a new team has to find a way to mask some of the defensive gaps in his game. Keeping him at wing is one obvious step, as playing center can leave him overexposed. Maybe that means having a playmaker at his side and a defensive presence who doesn’t weigh him down. But a team acquiring an $8.7 million forward may not want to have to insulate them that much when it isn’t even a guarantee for success.
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Then again, maybe he’s viewed differently if an acquiring team doesn’t have to take on that entire cap hit. Most interested teams will need the Blue Jackets to either retain some of Lane’s salary or take a contract back.
Retaining salary is likely the key to Columbus getting real value back for Laine. But even still, that return probably won’t be too pricey considering the inconsistencies in the player’s game, the fact the league knows the Blue Jackets want to make a trade happen, and the 10-team no-trade clause that limits their leverage even more.
Laine could make sense for quite a few teams, but not all options are plausible. The Vegas Golden Knights love to go after big-name players but have enough cap obstacles to figure out. The Pittsburgh Penguins could use a goal scorer, but may not be able to take a risk like that when the pressure is mounting to win with Sidney Crosby. The New York Islanders may not want to go through the cap gymnastics for someone as risky as Laine. Even Buffalo could make sense, but it may be contingent on a Jeff Skinner buyout.
So what are the more realistic options? Who could, or should, be interested in Laine?
Anytime there’s a finisher on the market, the Hurricanes tend to be front of mind. And management actually went out and acquired one this past deadline in Jake Guentzel. But if Guentzel walks as a free agent, Carolina should look for a replacement goal scorer and maybe Laine’s worth taking a chance on.
The Hurricanes have a knack for maximizing players’ strengths within their system. Their defensive structure should insulate Laine enough, and they have some passers to help him focus on his goal scoring. He would go against the grain from their forechecking identity and add a little more pop to their attack.
The question is Carolina’s cap space — it all depends on how the team handles its pending free agents. But under new general manager Eric Tulsky’s leadership, the Hurricanes have the trade assets, including Martin Necas, to make a deal work without extending themselves.
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The Coyotes usually had the cap space to pursue a player on the trade market like Laine. Ownership just wasn’t willing to spend it on active players.
But it’s a whole new ballgame for this franchise in Utah, with ownership willing to invest in the on-ice product. Management has over $40 million in cap space to spend. A lot has to be spent on a blue line with zero players signed for this upcoming season, but there’s more than enough to invest up front.
Utah has a lot of pass-first players and distributors on its roster including Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Matias Maccelli. But right now, there aren’t many volume shooters or pure goal scorers on the team, and the power play needs serious help. That’s where someone like Laine comes into play.
Via HockeyViz
The short-term deal Laine’s currently on also works in Utah’s favor. Management doesn’t risk overcommitting to a player who could block the path of up-and-coming talent. Instead, trading for him would help them build on this year’s progress with something the roster is missing.
Cole Caufield is a volume shooter with high-end finishing talent, while Brendan Gallagher does the same in a depth role. Otherwise, the Canadiens could use more shoot-first players.
With Laine in the fold, Montreal should be able to put together two scoring lines to punch up its offense compared to last year — especially if head coach Martin St. Louis has some tips and tricks to help strengthen his game.
Adding the 26-year-old would click for an up-and-coming Canadiens team, and it would fit with management’s philosophy of taking bets on reclamation projects. Denis Gurianov, Sean Monahan and even Kirby Dach to an extent are all examples of that. The two-year term makes it more enticing, in case Laine never fully reaches his peak value.
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Salary retention is an option for Montreal, like any other team. But it’s possible management instead tries to send a bad contract back. Moving Josh Anderson back to Columbus may not be feasible, but maybe flipping Christian Dvorak could be.
With their eyes on the long term, the Predators should look at any early-to-mid-20s forward available. Nashville, like Utah, doesn’t have many volume shooters. Filip Forsberg leads the way up front, but there’s a big gap between him and the rest of the Predators’ lineup.
Via AllThreeZones
Laine could slot behind him on the depth chart to add a scoring threat to the second line. And there’s room on the top power-play unit for Laine to cook from the left circle, where he tends to do most of his damage.
Going after raw offensive skill like Laine’s could fit with Barry Trotz’s approach from last summer when management emphasized offense and power-play scoring.
This quote from Barry Trotz is telling. The team will likely emphasize offense, speed, and skill moving forward. Also mentions the power play specifically.
Can Brunette deliver on the promise of more offense? We shall see. pic.twitter.com/sP5GIV7v27
— Alex Daugherty (@AlexDaugherty1) May 31, 2023
With cap space and prospects to move, and maybe even an NHL-caliber trade asset like Dante Fabbro, Nashville should be able to swing a deal with Columbus.
The Devils could use another right-shot forward in their top six. Between Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt and Dawson Mercer, only Mercer is right-handed. Adding another player to diversify the Devils’ attack would help.
Laine is exactly what this team is missing. Hughes is a dual threat, but his puck movement is his greatest strength. Hischier and Bratt are both capable goal scorers but are mostly playmakers. Meier is a volume shooter. Mercer is an all-around threat when he plays at his best. Adding a sniper with elite finishing talent would complete this group, especially after losing Tyler Toffoli who was one of their best scoring-chance generators.
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The cost is where things get tricky because the Devils also need to reserve cap and assets for a true No. 1 goaltender. But New Jersey may be able to swing both, especially if Mercer’s signed to a bridge deal this summer.
As the Blues retool their lineup, management should be on the market for younger forwards who can punch up the team’s offense. St. Louis finished 27th in expected and actual goal creation at five-on-five this past season and its power play production underwhelmed. And that may only sink lower if Pavel Buchnevich is moved in the final year of his contract.
So adding Laine could help fix an area of weaknesses, especially alongside a high-end passer like Robert Thomas. Thomas scored at the highest rate of his career in 2021-22 when his primary focus was threading Vladimir Tarasenko’s dangerous passes.
The one drawback is that St. Louis has a handful of defensively flawed forwards and its blue line is far from perfect. The Blues don’t have the structure to balance out that element of Laine’s game, which may add to an existing problem. Still, his scoring ability may make it worthwhile — plus management (and coaching) will have the whole offseason to build a plan around that.
The Rangers still need help on the right side of the lineup. Alexis Lafrenière’s shift to the right has solved that problem for one top-six line, but there’s still at least one more opening.
New York doesn’t necessarily need a play-driver to complete either line. But the team could use help getting the puck into the offensive zone with control and skaters with a shoot-first mentality. Laine would help in both areas, which should help remedy some of the five-on-five scoring woes that proved costly in the playoffs.
The only question is where Laine would fit on the power play considering how effective the top unit already is. The Rangers would have to decide if it’s worth trying to work in his cap hit if they can’t put him in the best position to succeed. That could make Necas or Toffoli better targets.
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The Blackhawks don’t have many offensive creators outside of Connor Bedard. A healthy Taylor Hall should change that, and so could some up-and-coming talent as it develops. But it wouldn’t hurt to add more scorers into the mix, especially to share the ice with Bedard so he doesn’t get held back by the team around him.
But would that be too volatile of an environment for Laine? Would the lack of structure and high-end talent weigh his game down?
Those are the most pressing questions for the Blackhawks to consider. But even if the answer works against them, it’s a risk they can afford to take more than most over the next two years. Chicago, unlike other teams in the mix, can leverage its cap space. It may not need Columbus to retain cap or take a bad contract back, which could appeal to the Blue Jackets.
— Data via AllThreeZones, HockeyViz, Evolving Hockey and CapFriendly
(Photo: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
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Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
