Sergei Bobrovsky has been lit up like a Christmas tree over the last two games, and Stuart Skinner has his own issues. Those factors are a great recipe for an Over.
The Stanley Cup Final continues tonight as the Edmonton Oilers continue their quest of overcoming a 3-0 deficit against the Florida Panthers.
My Panthers vs. Oilers prediction expects a high-scoring affair with Sergei Bobrovsky suddenly transforming into a strainer. Read more in my NHL picks ahead for this June 21 tilt.
My best bet
Over 5.5 (-110 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
Seven or more goals have been scored in each of the past three games, and at this point, you have to keep backing the trend.
Sergei Bobrovsky has particularly struggled to keep up with the Edmonton Oilers’ powerhouse offense, surrendering three or more goals in each of the past three games.
Bobrovsky is 1-2 over that stretch with a fade-worthy .838 SV% and 5.05 GAA. In his defense, Bobrovsky is playing against the most talented offensive player in the history of hockey and a solid cast around him.
Connor McDavid and company now rank second among the 16 playoff teams this postseason in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Not that the Florida Panthers’ offense is much worse, ranking fifth in the same category.
I also think there’s been a false narrative going around about goaltender Stuart Skinner’s recent play. Yes, he was brilliant in Game 4, there is no denying that, but he’s 1-3 over the other four games with a mere .880 SV%.
Finally, neither blue line has been particularly elite — at least not at the level you typically see for teams in the Cup Final. Neither side cracks the Top 5 among the 16 playoff teams in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
Over 5.5
Panthers moneyline
Matthew Tkachuk anytime goalscorer
Despite the last two outings, I still think Florida is the superior team. The Panthers are deeper offensively, better defensively and Bobrovsky is still a clearly better goaltender than Skinner (despite the recent slide).
Since I’m backing both a high-scoring game and a Florida victory, a highly correlated outcome would be for Matthew Tkachuk to find the back of the net.
Tkachuk came to life last game, scoring once while adding an assist for a +1 rating (with his goal against being an empty net) while adding four shots on goal.
He’s now fired four shots on goal in three of the past four games, and if he keeps that up, goals are going to continue to follow.
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There have been seven or more total goals scored in each of the past three games of this series. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Panthers.
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Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.
Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 – $500 per play.
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