With the season on the line and the Stanley Cup in the building, the onus will be on the Oilers to push the pace in hopes of keeping their season alive. Given how poor they've been defensively, that will play right into Florida's hands in a big way.
Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final could be the last. The Florida Panthers have taken a 3-0 series lead over the Edmonton Oilers, and the Cats will look to pull off the sweep with a win on Saturday.
Edmonton hasn’t had an answer for Florida. The Panthers won the first two games while allowing just a single goal, and then they won 4-3 in the high-scoring Game 3 at Rogers Place on Thursday.
Can the Oilers send the series back to Sunrise, or will the Panthers end it Saturday night? Find out with our free NHL picks and Panthers vs. Oilers predictions for Game 4.
My best bet
Both teams to score 2+ goals (-133 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Edmonton Oilers finally solved Florida Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky with three goals in Game 3. Unfortunately, the Oil haven’t solved their defensive shortcomings or figured out how to combat the scoring depth of the Panthers.
As a result, I’m going right back to this prop as my best bet for Game 4.
Edmonton starter Stuart Skinner sports a .868 save percentage and 3.13 GAA through three starts in the finals, and Florida has scored at least three goals in each game. At the other end of the rink, Bobrovsky has continued his sensational stretch with a .953 SV% and 1.33 GAA in the series, but the Oilers beat him three times in Game 3 and still have positive regression ahead of their 4.6 team shooting percentage at five-on-five.
I’m expecting Edmonton to have another solid offensive showing in Game 4, too. The Oilers have averaged 3.9 goals per game at Rogers Place compared to 2.55 on the road during the postseason, and Edmonton also finished with 3.73 expected goals in Game 3. Of course, the Oil are also still without a power-play goal in the series.
Finally, I also value head coach Kris Knoblauch leaning on his top scorers for big minutes, with Oilers stars Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all topping 22 minutes in Game 3.
Panthers moneyline
Oilers Over 1.5 goals
Under 2.5 first-period goals
While It’s hard to quantify the impact of failing to pull off the third-period comeback in Game 3 will have on Edmonton on Saturday, I think it will prove to be the final blow for the Oil. Florida has weathered the fleeting storms from Edmonton, and the Cats have outscored the Oilers 11-4.
Additionally, Edmonton scoring three times in Game 3 was just the second time Bobrovsky had allowed more than two goals across his past 14 starts. He’s been far better than Skinner, and Florida’s team defense has also been superior.
Finally, I expect another slow start in Game 4, with just 26 first-period goals through 20 Florida games this postseason.
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Florida is 7-2 on the road during the playoffs. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Oilers.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.
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