Matthew Knies has been invaluable to the Maple Leafs offense this postseason and will be a factor in Game 1 vs. the Panthers.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs kicks off tonight with the Florida Panthers facing the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.
The Panthers don’t give up a lot of quality chances, which is great considering Sergei Bobrovsky’s flakiness with high-danger shots this postseason. This is one of the many reasons my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions are targeting Toronto props, specifically Matthew Knies’ anytime goal market, ahead of Game 1.
Find out why with my free NHL picks for this Monday, May 5 matchup at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN and Sportsnet.
The Florida Panthers won three out of four games against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the regular season and enter Game 1 as favorites to win again.
However, the Panthers did not travel well this season and will be without key defender Aaron Ekblad for the first bout as he serves the final game of his suspension. That’s a key loss for the Cats, who went 10-14-2 with a -16 goal differential without their star defenseman in the lineup this season.
Florida’s road record was a middling 20-19-2 through the regular season. Meanwhile, the Leafs at home went 27-13-1 and are expected to perform well tonight at SBA in Game One to help tame the Cats.
My Panthers vs Maple Leafs pick: Matthew Knies anytime goal (+280 at Sports Interaction)
The Maple Leafs fell to the Panthers in five games two postseasons ago and hope to put forth a much better fight this time.
Their physical and heavy style of hockey under Craig Berube is conducive to what wins in the postseason and will be a necessity during this series against Florida.
The player who exemplified that hard-nosed, get-to-the-net hockey the most in Round 1 was Matthew Knies, who is tied for the team lead with three goals in the playoffs.
This is largely due to his ability to battle in front of the net and generate scoring chances from high-danger areas. Knies led the Maple Leafs with 10 high-danger shots in Round 1, which ranked him fourth league-wide, per NHL Edge.
This will be particularly key in this series against Sergei Bobrovsky, who struggled to stop high-danger scoring chances against Tampa, sporting a lowly .800 high-danger save percentage through five games.
This is why I feel strongly about Knies’ chances to score. Not only is he a mainstay on the Leafs’ top line, but he also became a fixture on the top power-play unit that operated at 35% in Round 1.
So, whether it’s at 5-on-5 or on the power play, Knies is good for a few quality scoring chances tonight, and the Leafs’ power forward has a good chance at getting one to drop with Bobrovsky struggling in those situations.
Matthew Knies anytime goal
Matthew Knies 2+ shots on goal
Under 6.5
With the second leg of the SGP, we’ll continue to ride with Knies and take him to record two shots on goal. He’s hit this number in three straight outings and four of six Round 1 games.
For the final leg of my SGP I’ll take this game ot go Under 6.5 goals. I’m expecting a tightly contested, low-event hockey game tonight.
The total has stayed under that number in each of the four games between the Leafs and Panthers this season. The Under also went 5-0 in each of the games from the 2023 series.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
The Under has hit in four straight meetings between the Leafs and Panthers. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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