Bryan Murphy
The long wait is over — for the first time since 2014, Olympic hockey is in its true best-on-best form.
The greatest stars on ice are set to take center stage in Milan, with the men’s tournament beginning on Thursday, February 11. After the NHL skipped out on the previous two Olympics, the superstars on the sheet are representing their home countries in the hopes of bringing back a gold medal.
All the names that headline the NHL are competing for an Olympic medal. Canada boasts the vaunted trio of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and captain Canada himself, Sidney Crosby. The United States is headlined by the Tkachuk brothers, Brady and Matthew, along with Jack Eichel and Auston Matthews.
But the stardom is not limited to North America. Sweden has a talented group highlighted by Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson, Adrian Kempe, and William Nylander. Finland brings Sebastian Aho, Mikko Rantanen, and Miro Heiskanen to the Olympics. David Pastrnak is the face of Czechia’s team, while Leon Draisaitl is set to dazzle for Germany.
The hockey world got a taste of international best-on-best in February of last year, with the 4 Nations Face-Off displaying the talents of the USA, Canada, Sweden, and Finland. The Canadians took home gold there, with McDavid securing the Great White North a title with his overtime heroics against the Americans.
Now, the field has been expanded to 12 teams, making the path to the top all the more difficult.
Who will rise to the occasion and win Olympic gold? The Sporting News hands out its expert predictions for the men’s hockey tournament.
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Daniel Chavkin: Canada enters the Olympics as the favorite to take home a gold medal, so the team shouldn’t have much of an issue getting through the preliminary rounds. Both Switzerland and Czechia could provide some pushback, but the Canadians still shouldn’t have much of an issue coming away at the top of Group A.
Pick: Canada
Jake Mozarsky: Canada. There’s no team in the tournament with more firepower up front, especially in Group A when all the teams are spread out. The main threat is Czechia, led by David Pastrnak. But against the Canadiens, they won’t be a match.
Pick: Canada
Bryan Murphy: Canada enters as the favorite in Group A, and should take care of business in a group also consisting of Czechia, Switzerland and France. France is one of the weakest teams at the tournament, and shouldn’t be an issue for the Canadians. While the Czechs and Swiss boast NHL power, both are top-heavy and don’t have the depth to keep up with Canada. Neither contest will be a cake walk, but Crosby and Co. should emerge on top and pick up three wins in group play.
Pick: Canada
Dan Treacy: Canada should have no problem winning Group A, with Czechia and Switzerland both outside of that top group of contenders. Don’t expect both teams to necessarily roll over when they face Canada, but the offensive skill level the Canadians bring to the ice has the potential to overwhelm both squads if they aren’t at their best. The biggest challenge for Canada figures to come after the preliminary round, which is no surprise.
Pick: Canada
MORE: Full list of all 12 hockey rosters at Olympics
Daniel Chavkin: Group B will provide the most drama as Sweden and Finland will battle for the top of the group. While Finland has enough talent to make a deep run in the tournament as it aims to go back-to-back, Sweden’s team is a touch deeper as long as the injuries don’t catch up. Plus, the Swedes should have an edge in net.
Pick: Sweden
Jake Mozarsky: Sweden. Coming off an underwhelming Four Nations face-off, the Swedes are back with something to prove. Their roster is arguably the most balanced in the group, anchored by a defensive core of Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson, and Rasmus Dahlin that can control the pace of any game. While Finland and Slovakia bring grit and Olympic pedigree, Sweden’s high-end NHL talent and depth at forward should see them edge out their rivals for the top spot.
Pick: Sweden
Bryan Murphy: Finland, Italy, Sweden and Slovakia make up Group B, and realistically, this group is going to come down to another heated rivalry — the Finns and Swedes. The two Nordic countries have a long history of hatred in hockey, one that rivals the USA-Canada feud. On paper, the Swedes are the strong team, with arguably the best defensive group at the tournament, but their goaltending is a question mark. The Sweden-Finland matchup is likely to decide this group, and while the Swedes may be the favorite, I think it’s Juuse Saros and the Finns that snag first.
Pick: Finland
Dan Treacy: The most anticipated preliminary round battle could come between Finland and Sweden, who meet on Feb. 13, and the winner of that contest has a good chance to be the one that wins the group. While the Swedes have some offensive questions, particularly after losing Leo Carlsson to injury, a strong group of defensemen really balances out the roster and should allow them to control games in a group that doesn’t feature the high-powered offenses of the United States or Canada. Sweden is aiming higher than just winning its group, but the talent on the roster should be enough for that critical first step.
Pick: Sweden
Daniel Chavkin: Team USA has no excuse not to win Group C, as they are significantly better and deeper than the other three teams in the group. While Germany certainly has star power, and both Latvia and Denmark have some NHL talent, the United States should not find much of an issue getting first place in the knockout stage.
Pick: USA
Jake Mozarsky: The United States. This isn’t just a favorable draw; this is arguably the greatest roster USA Hockey has ever assembled. After a statement win over Canada during last year’s Four Nations Face-Off and a gold-medal run at the 2025 World Championships, the Americans arrive in Milan with a “gold or bust” mentality.
Led by captain Auston Matthews and the dynamic Tkachuk brothers, the squad is elite, physical, and—most importantly—completely healthy. With the addition of Quinn Hughes to an already lockdown defensive unit and a Vezina-caliber rotation in net, Team USA has the depth to dominate Germany, Latvia, and Denmark.
Pick: USA
Bryan Murphy: Let’s call a spade a spade — the United States undoubtedly drew the easiest group in the tournament. Not to knock Denmark, Germany, and Latvia too much, but the USA has no business losing any of those three games. That is, if they are the true gold medal contender they have touted to be. The United States should emerge on top of Group C, but the big question will be how the lack of adversity early in the tournament impacts their play in the knockout stage.
Pick: USA
Dan Treacy: The U.S. has the benefit of two lower-tier teams in its group between Denmark and Latvia. While Germany might be better in this tournament than some expect, as Leon Draisaitl looks to put the team on his back, it’s hard to see any team from that trio truly keeping up with the USA. The Americans are strong in net with Connor Hellebuyck, have Quinn Hughes healthy and boast enough offensive depth even to compete for gold. It would be a surprise not to see the USA walk away with a group win.
Pick: USA
MORE: Ranking every hockey teams' chances to win gold, from best to worst
Daniel Chavkin: It’s hard to be a breakout star in the Olympics, since there is so much star power across the best rosters. However, one position ripe for a breakout is goalie, and Sweden’s netminder Filip Gustavsson has a chance to make a huge statement. The Minnesota Wild goalie has been in the NHL since 2021, but he has had a strong season this year for a really good Wild team. If Sweden makes a deep run, Gustavsson will have played a big role.
Pick: Filip Gustavsson, Sweden
Jake Mozarsky: While the roster is stacked with seasoned legends, the consensus breakout star of the Milan Games is almost certainly Macklin Celebrini. The 19-year-old phenom has been the talk of the hockey world leading up to the tournament, currently sitting fourth in NHL scoring with a staggering 81 points in just 55 games for the San Jose Sharks. He is the youngest player to ever represent Canada in an Olympic tournament featuring NHLers, but his performance on the ice suggests he belongs in the conversation with the game’s greatest.
Head coach Jon Cooper isn’t wasting any time easing the youngster in, as Celebrini has spent early practices skating on a high-octane top line alongside Connor McDavid, who is sure to get him the puck if he stays on the line. With his elite 200-foot game and a scoring touch that has him tied with Nathan MacKinnon for third in the NHL in assists, don’t be surprised if the teenager is the one leading the charge when the gold medal is on the line.
Pick: Macklin Celebrini, Canada
Bryan Murphy: Goaltending for Team Canada has been a hot topic dating back to the 4 Nations. Long gone are the days of Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo and Carey Price being the face for Canadian goalies. It’s a rough crop that Team Canada has to choose from, given the star power at every other position on the roster.
While Jordan Binnington liekly will begin as the No. 1 crease for Canada, don’t be surprised to see him lose it to Logan Thompson. The Capitals netminder should have been leading the crease back at 4 Nations, but was snubbed of a roster spot entirely. His numbers have been well above Binnginton’s for quite some time and while he may start on the bench, I think it’s only a matter of when he takes over the Canadian crease. With a chip on his shoulder, he’ll prove why he is currently the best that Canadian goaltending has to offer.
Pick: Logan Thompson, Canada
Dan Treacy: Macklin Celebrini. Celebrini has already broken out in the NHL, if is a 121-point pace is any indication, but it can be hard to break through while playing among so many established stars on this stage. Celebrini is good enough to make that kind of impact as a 19-year-old. Everything the former No. 1 pick has done with the Sharks this season has set the table for a major role in Milan, and it could be a teenager who helps propel Sidney Crosby and other NHL veterans to gold.
Pick: Macklin Celebrini, Canada
Daniel Chavkin: Connor McDavid is the best player in the world, making him one of the obvious picks to lead all players in scoring. During the Four Nations Face-Off, McDavid scored the tournament-winner while Nathan MacKinnon was the leading scorer, but this time around, the Edmonton Oilers star will outscore the Colorado Avalanche star on the international stage.
Pick: Connor McDavid, Canada
Jake Mozarsky: Auston Matthews. After a frustrating 2025 Four Nations Face-Off where he went goalless and a tumultuous NHL season that has seen his Maple Leafs struggling to stay in the playoff hunt, Matthews is the ultimate bounce-back candidate in Milan. While the drama in Toronto has been relentless, the American captain remains the most dangerous pure goal-scorer on the planet, and a change of scenery to the red, white, and blue might be exactly what he needs to ignite.
The stats suggest he is due for a massive explosion; despite the Leafs’ recent free fall, Matthews has still managed to rack up 26 goals this season while leading the NHL in shots on goal. Now, playing on a loaded Olympic roster where he isn’t the sole focus of every opposing checking line, he has the opportunity to stop being the playmaker and return to being the finisher.
Pick: Auston Matthews, USA
Bryan Murphy: It’s easy to pick a Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, or Auston Matthews, but I’m going to go with an under-the-radar player on the USA — Jake Guentzel. The Lightning winger had three goals in four games at the 4 Nations, tying Brady Tkachuk for the USA lead and good for a tie for second out of all skaters. He’s been skating in the top-six for the USA in the practices leading up to the start, and is expected to be a focal point of the offense.
Guentzel has a history of showing up in the bright lights. He led all skaters with 13 goals when the Penguins won the Stanley Cup in 2017 and has a total of 41 goals in 74 playoff appearances. I expect Guentzel to rise to the occasion again for the red, white and blue.
Pick: Jake Guentzel, USA
Dan Treacy: Connor McDavid may soak up the most attention for Canada, and rightfully so, but this stage has been a long time coming for MacKinnon. The Avalanche star has performed in the Stanley Cup Final and is tracking to soar past 100 points again this season. Finally given the opportunity to prove himself on the Olympic stage, MacKinnon will be a focal point for a Canadian team that will be loaded with scoring opportunities.
Pick: Nathan MacKinnon, Canada
Daniel Chavkin: After two straight Olympics without a gold medal, Canada returns to the top by winning it in Italy. The Canadian team has more talent than anyone else in the tournament while also having the experience required to win at this stage, so they should be able to come out on top.
While Team USA has the second-highest odds of winning a gold, I think Sweden will overtake them and win silver. The Swedes haven’t medaled since taking silver in 2014, but a team full of NHL veterans with a few stars will be enough to compete with both Canada and Team USA for a gold medal.
Therefore, Team USA will come away with a relatively disappointing bronze medal. While the Americans found success last year at the Four Nations Face-Off, they will not have home-ice advantage and will find more difficulty winning at the Olympic stage after eight away.
Gold: Canada
Silver: Sweden
Bronze: USA
Jake Mozarsky: For the first time since 1980, the balance of power has shifted as the United States men’s team finally possesses the depth to dismantle the Canadian juggernaut. While Canada has long relied on its unmatched heritage, this U.S. squad is the result of a decade-long talent explosion. With NHL superstars like Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes in their prime, the Americans are no longer the scrappy underdogs —they are an elite force that has spent years closing the gap, and in Milan, that gap finally has a chance to vanish.
The U.S. advantage is most glaring in the crease and on the blue line. With a three-headed monster of Hellebuyck, Oettinger, and Swayman, the Americans have a level of goaltending security that Canada simply cannot match. Combined with a mobile defense led by a healthy Quinn Hughes and Charlie McAvoy, the U.S. now dictates the transition game that used to be Canada’s trademark. They have finally built a roster that pairs world-class skill with the functional grit of the Tkachuk brothers, ensuring they won’t be bullied off the puck in the tournament’s heaviest moments.
When these rivals meet for gold, expect the United States to finish the climb that began 46 years ago. A victory wouldn’t just end nearly half a century of waiting; it would inspire a new generation of American players, much like the 1980 team did for the current roster. By finally reclaiming the top of the podium, this team has the chance to turn its developmental progress into a lasting legacy, proving that the gold standard of hockey now resides south of the border.
Gold: USA
Silver: Canada
Bronze: Sweden
Bryan Murphy: It’s been far too long since Canada was atop the podium in men’s hockey at the Olympics. I think we see the Canadians right that ship in 2026.
The maple leaf proved why hockey is Canada’s game at the 4 Nations Face-Off, taking gold over the USA after losing to the rival in group play. It’s hard to bet against a group highlighted by Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby. While the goaltending is a concern, there is simply too much talent on this team not to be gunning for gold.
With the USA not facing any sort of adversity in group play, it gives me pause on how they will handle it in the knockout stage. Their first true test may not come until the semifinals, which could be any of Sweden, Finland, or Canada. That, coupled with some questionable roster decisions by Bill Guerin, may not put the USA in the best spot for gold. Because of that, I think the bronze medal is what the United States ends up going for.
Gold: Canada
Silver: Sweden
Bronze: USA
Dan Treacy: Call it chalk, but the tournament could end how many expect it to end. It’s hard to pick against Canada between the level of offensive skill and the experience the roster offers. Goaltending issues are something to monitor, but between McDavid, MacKinnon, Celebrini, Mitch Marner and more, Canada has an offense that can simply overwhelm opponents.
That doesn’t mean the United States can’t compete in a potential gold medal match, but silver or bronze certainly seems more likely for the Americans. Sweden has the depth and experience to get to the gold medal match, but it’s ultimately not quite enough to overpower Connor Hellebuyck, and the USA gets to the final game.
Gold: Canada
Silver: USA
Bronze: Sweden
Bryan Murphy joined The Sporting News in 2022 as the NHL/Canada content producer. Previously he worked for NBC Sports on their national news desk reporting on breaking news for the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL, in addition to covering the 2020 and 2022 Olympic Games. A graduate of Quinnipiac University, he spent time in college as a beat reporter covering the men’s ice hockey team.