The Stars are formidable foes, especially for an Oilers team missing Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. This puts the spotlight on Edmonton's defense and goaltending, which will step up against Dallas tonight.
NHL
Hats off to the Edmonton Oilers for their first-ever win without either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl on Saturday.
Edmonton welcomes the Dallas Stars to Rogers Place on Wednesday, March 26, and it’s a huge uptick in class, with Dallas closing in on clinching a postseason berth and rocking a 10-3-2 record out of the 4 Nations Face-Off.
My top Stars vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks are calling for a low-scoring result, with Edmonton looking to batten down the defensive hatches against Dallas tonight.
My Oilers pick: Under 6.0 (-105 at BET99)
My Oilers analysis
The Edmonton Oilers only generated 2.98 expected goals (2.3 at 5-on-5) to top the Seattle Kraken 5-4 in overtime Saturday, and the Oil will hit the ice again without superstars Connor McDavid (lower body) and Leon Draisaitl (undisclosed) against the Dallas Stars tonight.
There’s no comparison between the Stars and Oilers depth charts with the Edmonton one-two punch sidelined. And despite the win, the Oilers lost the expected-goals battle with a concerning 43.4% mark against the Seattle Kraken on Saturday.
Dallas is a huge uptick in class, and I anticipate Edmonton bench boss Kris Knoblauch to sell out for a sound defensive structure at the expense of generating consistent and quality offensive chances tonight.
With Stars No. 1 goalie Jake Oettinger sporting a rock-solid .909 save percentage and 2.49 GAA for the campaign, which includes turning away 54 of 56 shots in consecutive wins, goals were going to be tough to come by for the Oilers even if No. 97 and No. 29 were in the lineup.
Additionally, Dallas just silenced the similarly injury-riddled Minnesota Wild 3-0 on Monday.
Under 6.0
Mikko Rantanen Over 0.5 points
Roope Hintz Over 0.5 points
The best is still ahead for Mikko Rantanen in Dallas, and there’s screaming statistical correction ahead with center and countryman Roope Hintz. They’ve been on the ice for an unsustainably low 5.3 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 in the past five games.
Rantanen and Hintz skate on the No. 1 power-play unit and are set to see favorable matchups all night with McDavid and Draisaitl out of the lineup.
Edmonton drops to a 49.3 Corsi For percentage, 48.0 goals for percentage, and 49.1 xGF% when McDavid and Draisaitl aren’t on the ice, and now the Oilers’ supporting players have to play above their weight class for an entire game.
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The Dallas Stars have hit the game total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+16.05 Units / 15% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Stars.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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