Parker's prediction: Oettinger backstops Stars to low-scoring win.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars will meet in the Western Conference Final for a second consecutive spring, and they’ll hit the ice at the American Airlines Center for Game 1 on Wednesday, May 21.
Edmonton is rolling along a 7-1 postseason stretch, while Dallas has gone 6-1 on home ice in the playoffs.
My Oilers vs. Stars predictions and best NHL picks expect a close, low-scoring game in the series opener.
I believe Edmonton is good enough to leave Dallas with a split, but I don’t think they’ll snag Game 1. The Stars have been money on home ice, and No. 1 Jake Oettinger has posted a high-end .941 save percentage and 1.59 GAA during his five-game winning streak at American Airlines.
My Oilers vs Stars pick: Under 6.5 (-130 at BET99)
The Dallas Stars received a huge boost with the return of No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen, and he logged more minutes in consecutive contests after his postseason debut in Game 4 against the Winnipeg Jets.
Dallas has also been dominant on home ice with just 2.29 goals against per game and a 90.0 penalty-kill percentage through seven postseason contests at the American Airlines Center. Stars No. 1 Jake Oettinger has also been spectacular with a .924 save percentage in the Lone Star State.
While Goaltending remains the elephant in the room for the Edmonton Oilers, Stuart Skinner turned in consecutive shutouts to close out the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Oil have been exceptional at five-on-five with a 59.0 expected goals percentage during their active 8-1 stretch.
Obviously there is oodles of offensive talent on both teams. I’m just anticipating both head coaches to be preaching patience and playing sound defensively. This is the second consecutive year the Stars and Oilers have met in the Western Conference Final, and the Oilers have played to the Under in 33 of their last 55 away games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI).
There were also six goals or fewer in five of six Round 2 games between the Stars and Jets.
Stars moneyline
Under 6.5
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 points
This has the potential to be a long series, and Dallas has been off since winning Saturday, so I’m expecting the Stars to be rested. As discussed, Dallas has been next to automatic on home ice, and Edmonton hasn’t been as sharp on the road this postseason.
The Oilers have allowed 3.17 goals per road game, after all.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, mixing in Edmonton forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with a pair of uncorrelated legs creates a huge multiplier. Nugent-Hopkins is also projected to skate with Connor McDavid on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit, too.
The duo has been on the ice for 7.96 goals per 60 minutes this postseason, and Nugent-Hopkins has only been on for 1.94 per 60 when he hasn’t jumped the boards with McDavid, so it’s obviously a nice boon for RNH’s offensive upside going into Game 1.
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Odds courtesy of BET99
The Edmonton Oilers have hit the Under in 33 of their last 55 away games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Stars.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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