Sergei Bobrovsky had a stinker in Game 4, but with the Oilers likely to put an emphasis on testing him, our NHL picks see Bob eating plenty of pucks in Game 5.
The Stanley Cup Final returns to Sunrise on June 18 following an 8-1 win by the Edmonton Oilers to extend the series against the Florida Panthers.
Florida still holds a commanding 3-1 series lead, and my Oilers vs. Panthers predictions aren’t buying Bobrovsky’s Game 4 performance. Find out how I’m riding Bob in my NHL picks ahead.
My best bet
Sergei Bobrovsky Over 25.5 saves (-105 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
Sergei Bobrovsky has bounced back in each of his past three postseason starts after allowing four or more goals, posting an elite .943 SV% while surrendering just four total goals, and I expect him to be sharp in Game 5.
Bobrovsky has also been better on home ice throughout the playoffs, with a .921 SV% and 1.90 GAA compared to .896 and 2.69 marks on the highway.
The Edmonton Oilers have registered 32 or more shots in three of the first four games of this series, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t continue peppering Bob. Edmonton has also won the overall shot share (54.0%) in the series, while the 5-on-5 possession has been almost even (Oilers have a 49.4 Corsi For percentage).
Edmonton has 12 lineup regulars with a 50% or higher shot share at 5-on-5 for the series, too, and the Oilers have converted a sustainable 48.4% of their attempts into shots. For comparison, Edmonton sat at 51.5% during the regular season and 46.4% through the first three rounds of the playoffs.
Simply put, the Florida Panthers haven’t been able to suppress Edmonton’s shot volume in three of the four games, and the Cats have needed to rely on Bobrovsky. With the season on the line, I’m anticipating the Oilers prioritizing putting pucks on net and testing Bob early and often — especially since he was pulled in Game 4.
Panthers moneyline
Under 1.5 first-period goals
Under 5.5 goals
The Panthers have been an entirely different team on home ice, with just 2.0 goals against per game and a stingy 2.24 expected goals against per 60 minutes.
I also value Bobrovsky’s highlighted improved play at Amerant Bank Arena, and I’m not anticipating Edmonton starter Stuart Skinner turning in a .970 SV% with just a single goal allowed despite Edmonton surrendering 3.84 expected goals.
Additionally, I expect Florida to look to keep this a low-scoring game and prioritize playing sound defense. An added focus on defensive detail from the Panthers will limit their own offensive opportunities in addition to preventing high-danger scoring chances for the Oilers.
The Cats having the advantage of last change to create more on-ice matchups in their favor will also help them hold the Oilers’ offense in check.
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The Oilers have 32 or more shots in three of the four games in the Stanley Cup Final. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Panthers.
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