It wasn't until the final game of the last series that Stuart Skinner was peppered with shots, but our NHL picks don't expect the Panthers to wait as long to test the Oilers' netminder.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
The Edmonton Oilers head south to Sunrise to face the Florida Panthers for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final tonight.
Stanley Cup odds have the Cats marked as small betting favorites to win Game 1, and my Oilers vs. Panthers predictions expect Florida to test Stuart Skinner early and often — setting up the Over on his saves total to be the highlight of my NHL picks for Saturday, June 8.
Get ready to eat rubber, buddy.
My best bet
Stuart Skinner Over 27.5 saves (+100 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Florida Panthers have 75.1 attempts and 34.5 shots per 60 minutes on home ice across nine postseason games, and those numbers are right in line with their 72.8 and 34.7 marks during the regular season. Florida also averaged 37 shots across three home games against the New York Rangers.
Additionally, the Cats have also been possession hogs with a 56.5 Corsi For percentage and 57.2% shot share at 5-on-5 in their barn during the playoffs, so I’m anticipating Edmonton Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner facing a lot of rubber.
Of course, Skinner has to do his part, and he’s been up to the task after a two-game breather during the Round 2 series against the Canucks. The Edmonton No. 1 has bounced back with a .919 SV% and 1.81 GAA while allowing two goals or fewer in seven of his past eight starts.
I’m also expecting the relentless Panthers to be able to hem the Oilers in their own zone for prolonged stretches and pile up shots in bunches. Edmonton’s defense doesn’t drive possession at 5-on-5 as a whole, with Darnell Nurse (45.4%), Brett Kulak (44.8%), and Cody Ceci (43.6%) all on the wrong side of the 5-on-5 CF% line. It’s a similar story for the majority of the Edmonton supporting cast up front, too.
Finally, the Stars opted to hold onto the puck and attempt too many high-risk passes in the offensive zone instead of shooting in Round 3 against the Oilers before finally racking up 73 attempts and 34 shots in Game 6. The Panthers won’t be as generous to the Oil on Saturday night.
Panthers moneyline
Under 5.5 goals
Under 1.5 first-period goals
Goals have been hard to come by against both the Oilers and Panthers, with them respectively allowing just 2.61 and 2.29 per game in the playoffs. Florida also has surrendered a postseason low 2.17 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
As noted, Skinner is in top form entering the series, and Florida starter Sergei Bobrovsky has also allowed two goals or fewer in 13 of 17 playoff games and enters with a .920 SV% and 1.89 GAA across his past 13 starts.
I also expect these two teams to ease into the series in Game 1 with a focus on defensive detail and rolling all four lines, so again, high-danger scoring chances and goals will be tough to come by in the opening period.
As discussed, the Panthers have been a juggernaut on home ice, and I’m anticipating Florida driving the play and limiting Edmonton’s quality chances in the opener. The Florida forecheck, heavy style of play, possession game, and overall depth will be the difference in Game 1.
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Florida has averaged 37 shots over its past three home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Panthers.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.
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